Late Holocene dune migration on the south Texas sand sheet

There are a wide variety of vegetated, eolian depositional landforms associated with the south Texas sand sheet, attesting to the past dominance of eolian processes. Mapping identified two sets of parabolic dunes elongating with winds from the southeast and the northwest. Parabolic dunes elongated by northwesterly winds are older than ca. 200 years and may be associated with eolian depositional events ca. 2700 and/or 2000 years ago. The latest dune migration event, associated with southeasterly winds occurred ca. 200 years ago and at one site is inset into northwesterly-extended parabolic dunes. This period of dune migration may be coincident with particularly severe drought identified in the tree-ring record centered at AD 1790, when the Palmer Drought Severity Index was − 4. A threshold of dune movement may have occurred ca. in the 11th, 15th and 20th centuries when there are two or more consecutive years with a Palmer Drought Severity Index of < − 4, corresponding to 30–50% reduction in precipitation. Dune systems on Coastal Plain of Texas to reactivated repeatedly due to climate variability in the past 3000 years.     

Changes in sediment and organic carbon accumulation in a highly-disturbed ecosystem: The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (California, USA)

We used the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta CA (Delta, hereafter) as a model system for understanding how human activities influence the delivery of sediment and total organic carbon (TOC) over the past 50–60 years. Sediment cores were collected from sites within the Delta representing the Sacramento River (SAC), the San Joaquin River (SJR), and Franks Tract (FT), a flooded agricultural tract. A variety of anthropogenic tracers including ¹³⁷Cs, total DDE (∑DDE) and brominated diphenyl ether (BDE) congeners were used to quantify sediment accumulation rates. This information was combined with total organic carbon (TOC) profiles to quantify rates of TOC accumulation. Across the three sites, sediment and TOC accumulation rates were four to eight-fold higher prior to 1972. Changes in sediment and TOC accumulation were coincident with completion of several large reservoirs and increased agriculture and urbanization in the Delta watershed. Radiocarbon content of TOC indicated that much of the carbon delivered to the Delta is “pre-aged” reflecting processing in the Delta watershed or during transport to the sites rather than an input of predominantly contemporary carbon (e.g., 900–1400 years BP in surface sediments and 2200 yrs BP and 3610 yrs BP at the base of the SJR and FT cores, respectively). Together, these data suggest that human activities have altered the amount and age of TOC accumulating in the Delta since the 1940s.     

Simulating the dispersal of tephra from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: Implications for the formation of widespread ash layers

PUFF and HAZMAP, two tephra dispersal models developed for volcanic hazard mitigation, are used to simulate the climatic 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. PUFF simulations indicate that the majority of ash was advected away from the source at the level of the tropopause (~ 17 km). Several eruptive pulses injected ash and SO₂ gas to higher altitudes (~ 25 km), but these pulses represent only a small fraction (~ 1%) of the total erupted material released during the simulation. Comparison with TOMS images of the SO₂ cloud after 71 and 93 h indicate that the SO₂ gas originated at an altitude of ~ 25 km near the source and descended to an altitude of ~ 22 km as the cloud moved across the Indian Ocean. HAZMAP simulations indicate that the Pinatubo tephra fall deposit in the South China Sea was formed by an eruption cloud with the majority of the ash concentrated at a height of 16–18 km. Results of this study demonstrate that the largest concentration of distal ash was transported at a level significantly below the maximum eruption column height (~ 40 km) and at a level below the calculated height of neutral buoyancy (~ 25 km). Simulations showed that distal ash transport was dominated by atmospheric circulation patterns near the regional tropopause. In contrast, the movement of the SO₂ cloud occurred at higher levels, along slightly different trajectories, and may have resulted from gas/particle segregations that took place during intrusion of the Pinatubo umbrella cloud as it moved away from source.     

Development and testing of a new protocol for evaluating the effectiveness of oil spill surface washing agents

As defined by the National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP), a surface washing agent (SWA) is a product that removes oil from solid surfaces, such as beaches, rocks, and concrete, through a detergency mechanism and that does not involve dispersing or solubilizing the oil into the water column. Commercial products require testing to qualify for listing on the NCP Product Schedule. Such testing is conducted both for toxicity and effectiveness. Protocols currently exist for bioremediation agents and dispersants, but not SWAs. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing a laboratory testing protocol to evaluate the effectiveness of SWAs in removing crude oil from a solid substrate. This paper summarizes some of the defining research supporting this new protocol. Multiple variables were tested to determine their effect on SWA performance. The protocol was most sensitive to SWA-to-oil ratio and rotational speed of mixing. Less sensitive variables were contact time, mixing time, and SWA concentration when total applied mass of active product was constant. EPA recommendations for the testing protocol will be made following round robin testing.     

Using Ancillary Information to Improve Hypocenter Estimation: Bayesian Single Event Location (BSEL)

We have developed and tested an algorithm, Bayesian Single Event Location (BSEL), for estimating the location of a seismic event. The main driver for our research is the inadequate representation of ancillary information in the hypocenter estimation procedure. The added benefit is that we have also addressed instability issues often encountered with historical NLR solvers (e.g., non-convergence or seismically infeasible results). BSEL differs from established nonlinear regression techniques by using a Bayesian prior probability density function (prior PDF) to incorporate ancillary physical basis constraints about event location. P-wave arrival times from seismic events are used in the development. Depth, a focus of this paper, may be modeled with a prior PDF (potentially skewed) that captures physical basis bounds from surface wave observations. This PDF is constructed from a Rayleigh wave depth excitation eigenfunction that is based on the observed minimum period from a spectrogram analysis and estimated near-source elastic parameters. For example, if the surface wave is an Rg phase, it potentially provides a strong constraint for depth, which has important implications for remote monitoring of nuclear explosions. The proposed Bayesian algorithm is illustrated with events that demonstrate its congruity with established hypocenter estimation methods and its application potential. The BSEL method is applied to three events: 1) A shallow Mw 4 earthquake that occurred near Bardwell, KY on June 6, 2003, 2) the Mw 5.6 earthquake of July 26, 2005 that occurred near Dillon, MT, and 3) a deep Mw 5.7 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Japan on April 22, 1980. A strong Rg was observed from the Bardwell, KY earthquake that places very strong constraints on depth and origin time. No Rg was observed for the Dillon, MT earthquake, but we used the minimum observed period of a Rayleigh wave (7 seconds) to reduce the depth and origin time uncertainty. Because the Japan event was deep, there is no observed surface wave energy. We utilize the prior generated from the Dillon, MT event to show that even in the case when a prior is inappropriately applied, high quality data will overcome its influence and result in a reasonable hypocenter estimate.     

A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO- BEHAVIORAL FACTORS

On the basis of a comprehensive literature review and data analysis of global influenza surveillance, a transmission theory based numerical model is developed to understand the causative factors of influenza seasonality and the biodynamical mechanisms of seasonal flu. The model is applied to simulate the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza in different areas across all continents and climate zones around the world. Model solution and the good matches between model output and actual influenza indexes affirm that influenza activity is highly auto-correlative and relies on determinants of a broad spectrum. Internal dynamic resonance; variations of meteorological elements (solar radiation, precipitation and dewpoint); socio-behavioral influences and herd immunity to circulating strains prove to be the critical explanatory factors of the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza. In all climate regions, influenza activity is proportional to the exponential of the number of days with precipitation and to the negative exponential of quarter power of sunny hours. Influenza activity is a negative exponential function of dewpoint in temperate and arctic regions and an exponential function of the absolute deviation of dewpoint from its annual mean in the tropics. Epidemics of seasonal influenza could be deemed as the consequence of the dynamic resonance and interactions of determinants. Early interventions (such as opportune vaccination, prompt social distancing, and maintaining incidence well below a baseline) are key to the control and prevention of seasonal influenza. Moderate amount of sunlight exposure or Vitamin D supplementation during rainy and short-day photoperiod seasons, more outdoor activities, and appropriate indoor dewpoint deserve great attention in influenza prevention. To a considerable degree, the study reveals the mechanism of influenza seasonality, demonstrating a potential for influenza activity projection. The concept and algorithm can be explored for further applications.     

Membrane Interface Probe Protocol for Contaminants in Low‐Permeability Zones

Accurate characterization of contaminant mass in zones of low hydraulic conductivity (low k) is essential for site management because this difficult‐to‐treat mass can be a long‐term secondary source. This study developed a protocol for the membrane interface probe (MIP) as a low‐cost, rapid data‐acquisition tool for qualitatively evaluating the location and relative distribution of mass in low‐k zones. MIP operating parameters were varied systematically at high and low concentration locations at a contaminated site to evaluate the impact of the parameters on data quality relative to a detailed adjacent profile of soil concentrations. Evaluation of the relative location of maximum concentrations and the shape of the MIP vs. soil profiles led to a standard operating procedure (SOP) for the MIP to delineate contamination in low‐k zones. This includes recommendations for: (1) preferred detector (ECD for low concentration zones, PID or ECD for higher concentration zones); (2) combining downlogged and uplogged data to reduce carryover; and (3) higher carrier gas flow rate in high concentration zones. Linear regression indicated scatter in all MIP‐to‐soil comparisons, including R² values using the SOP of 0.32 in the low concentration boring and 0.49 in the high concentration boring. In contrast, a control dataset with soil‐to‐soil correlations from borings 1‐m apart exhibited an R² of ≥0.88, highlighting the uncertainty in predicting soil concentrations using MIP data. This study demonstrates that the MIP provides lower‐precision contaminant distribution and heterogeneity data compared to more intensive high‐resolution characterization methods. This is consistent with its use as a complementary screening tool.     

Enhanced aerosol-cloud relationships in more stable and adiabatic clouds

Modification of cloud microphysics and cloud albedo by cloud-active aerosol is generally identified and accepted, but the nature and magnitude of aerosol-cloud interactions are vaguely understood and thought to include a myriad of processes that vary regionally and confound the application of simple physical models of cloud-aerosol sensitivity. This paper presents observations demonstrating that cloud top stability through its regulation of mixing and vertical development is one of the critical mechanisms that regulate cloud response to cloud-active aerosol in some cloud systems. Strong above-cloud inversions are shown to buffer marine stratocumulus from the effects of mixing with drier, warmer inversion air. This buffering reduces the variability of the cloud liquid water path (LWP) and enables the clouds to remain nearly adiabatic. While weaker above-cloud inversions in continental stratocumulus promote variability in the LWP and sub-adiabatic LWPs, stronger inversions in marine stratocumulus enables a relatively adiabatic existence that increases the relationship of cloud microphysical alteration to cloud-active aerosol. This study has important implications for Geoengineering in that it demonstrates that cloud systems overlain by strong thermal inversions are more likely to respond predictably to intentional manipulation of the in-cloud concentration of cloud-active aerosol.     

Time-resolved,defect-hosted,trace element mobility in deformed Witwatersrand pyrite

The Pb isotopic composition of rocks is widely used to constrain the sources and mobility of melts and hydrothermal fluids in the Earth's crust. In many cases, the Pb isotopic composition appears to represent mixing of multiple Pb reservoirs. However, the nature, scale and mechanisms responsible for isotopic mixing are not well known. Additionally, the trace element composition of sulphide minerals are routinely used in ore deposit research, mineral exploration and environmental studies, though little is known about element mobility in sulphides during metamorphism and deformation. To investigate the mechanisms of trace element mobility in a deformed Witwatersrand pyrite(FeS_2), we have combined electron backscatter diffraction(EBSD) and atom probe microscopy(APM). The results indicate that the pyrite microstructural features record widely different Pb isotopic compositions, covering the entire range of previously published sulphide Pb compositions from the Witwatersrand basin. We show that entangled dislocations record enhanced Pb, Sb, Ni, Tl and Cu composition likely due to entrapment and short-circuit diffusion in dislocation cores. These dislocations preserve the Pb isotopic composition of the pyrite at the time of growth(~3 Ga) and show that dislocation intersections, likely to be common in deforming minerals, limit trace element mobility. In contrast, Pb, As, Ni, Co, Sb and Bi decorate a highangle grain boundary which formed soon after crystallisation by sub-grain rotation recrystallization.Pb isotopic composition within this boundary indicates the addition of externally-derived Pb and trace elements during greenschist metamorphism at ~2 Ga. Our results show that discrete Pb reservoirs are nanometric in scale, and illustrate that grain boundaries may remain open systems for trace element mobility over 1 billion years after their formation.