Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Deepwater Horizon</Emphasis> Oil Spill Impacts on Salt Marsh Fiddler Crabs (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Uca</Emphasis> spp.)

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill was the largest marine oil spill in US waters to date and one of the largest worldwide. Impacts of this spill on salt marsh vegetation have been well documented, although impacts on marsh macroinvertebrates have received less attention. To examine impacts of the oil spill on an important marsh invertebrate and ecosystem engineer, we conducted a meta-analysis on fiddler crabs (Uca spp.) using published sources and newly available Natural Resources Damage Assessment (NRDA) and Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) data. Fiddler crabs influence marsh ecosystem structure and function through their burrowing and feeding activities and are key prey for a number of marsh and estuarine predators. We tested the hypothesis that the spill affected fiddler crab burrow density (crab abundance), burrow diameter (crab size), and crab species composition. Averaged across multiple studies, sites, and years, our synthesis revealed a negative effect of oiling on all three metrics. Burrow densities were reduced by 39 % in oiled sites, with impacts and incomplete recovery observed over 2010–2014. Burrow diameters were reduced from 2010 to 2011, but appeared to have recovered by 2012. Fiddler crab species composition was altered through at least 2013 and only returned to reference conditions where marsh vegetation recovered, via restoration planting in one case. Given the spatial and temporal extent of data analyzed, this synthesis provides compelling evidence that the Deepwater Horizon spill suppressed populations of fiddler crabs in oiled marshes, likely affecting other ecosystem attributes, including marsh productivity, marsh soil characteristics, and associated predators.     

Stock-Specific Movement and Distribution of Juvenile Chinook Salmon, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>, in Sandy Beach Surf Zones of Oregon and Washington,USA

Sandy beach surf zones serve as alternative nursery habitats for juvenile Chinook salmon (0 age) during their early marine residency, a period considered critical due to high and variable mortality rates. Despite the importance of early marine residence, the extent of juvenile salmon surf zone use and movement along sandy beaches is not well understood. Juvenile Chinook salmon distribution and movement were studied in shallow surf zone habitats by sampling from 2006 to 2010 with a beach seine 11 beaches adjacent and distant to four estuary mouths in Oregon and Washington, USA. The estuary of origin of each juvenile was determined using genetic stock identification methods and coded wire tags. Surf zones sampled were within littoral cells, which are stretches of the coastline bordered by rocky headlands, and included estuaries with and without Chinook salmon populations. Juvenile salmonids were only collected at littoral cells with Chinook-inhabited watersheds. Most juveniles (95 %) were present at sandy beaches adjacent (<500 m from estuary mouth) to their estuary of origin. Few Chinook salmon (5 %) were collected at littoral cells that contained non-natal estuaries. These results indicate that juvenile Chinook salmon inhabiting surf zones mostly use beaches adjacent to their estuaries of origin, but some juveniles may reside in beaches distant from their point of ocean entry.     

Long-Term Trends of Nutrients and Phytoplankton in Chesapeake Bay

Climate effects on hydrology impart high variability to water-quality properties, including nutrient loadings, concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a), in estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Resolving long-term trends of these properties requires that we distinguish climate effects from secular changes reflecting anthropogenic eutrophication. Here, we test the hypothesis that strong climatic contrasts leading to irregular dry and wet periods contribute significantly to interannual variability of mean annual values of water-quality properties using in situ data for Chesapeake Bay. Climate effects are quantified using annual freshwater discharge from the Susquehanna River together with a synoptic climatology for the Chesapeake Bay region based on predominant sea-level pressure patterns. Time series of water-quality properties are analyzed using historical (1945–1983) and recent (1984–2012) data for the bay adjusted for climate effects on hydrology. Contemporary monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) provides data for a period since mid-1984 that is significantly impacted by anthropogenic eutrophication, while historical data back to 1945 serve as historical context for a period prior to severe impairments. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) are developed for nutrient loadings and concentrations (total nitrogen—TN, nitrate?+?nitrate—NO₂?+?NO₃) at the Susquehanna River and water-quality properties in the bay proper, including dissolved nutrients (NO₂?+?NO₃, orthophosphate—PO₄), chl-a, diffuse light attenuation coefficient (K _D (PAR)), and chl-a/TN. Each statistical model consists of a sum of nonlinear functions to generate flow-adjusted time series and compute long-term trends accounting for climate effects on hydrology. We present results identifying successive periods of (1) eutrophication ca. 1945–1980 characterized by approximately doubled TN and NO₂?+?NO₃ loadings, leading to increased chl-a and associated ecosystem impairments, and (2) modest decreases of TN and NO₂?+?NO₃ loadings from 1981 to 2012, signaling a partial reversal of nutrient over-enrichment. Comparison of our findings with long-term trends of water-quality properties for a variety of estuarine and coastal ecosystems around the world reveals that trends for Chesapeake Bay are weaker than for other systems subject to strenuous management efforts, suggesting that more aggressive actions than those undertaken to date will be required to counter anthropogenic eutrophication of this valuable resource.     

Present-day oxidative subsidence of organic soils and mitigation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

Subsidence of organic soils in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta threatens sustainability of the California (USA) water supply system and agriculture. Land-surface elevation data were collected to assess present-day subsidence rates and evaluate rice as a land use for subsidence mitigation. To depict Delta-wide present-day rates of subsidence, the previously developed SUBCALC model was refined and calibrated using recent data for CO₂ emissions and land-surface elevation changes measured at extensometers. Land-surface elevation change data were evaluated relative to indirect estimates of subsidence and accretion using carbon and nitrogen flux data for rice cultivation. Extensometer and leveling data demonstrate seasonal variations in land-surface elevations associated with groundwater-level fluctuations and inelastic subsidence rates of 0.5–0.8 cm yr^–1. Calibration of the SUBCALC model indicated accuracy of ±0.10 cm yr^–1 where depth to groundwater, soil organic matter content and temperature are known. Regional estimates of subsidence range from <0.3 to >1.8 cm yr^–1. The primary uncertainty is the distribution of soil organic matter content which results in spatial averaging in the mapping of subsidence rates. Analysis of leveling and extensometer data in rice fields resulted in an estimated accretion rate of 0.02–0.8 cm yr^–1. These values generally agreed with indirect estimates based on carbon fluxes and nitrogen mineralization, thus preliminarily demonstrating that rice will stop or greatly reduce subsidence. Areas below elevations of –2 m are candidate areas for implementation of mitigation measures such as rice because there is active subsidence occurring at rates greater than 0.4 cm yr^–1.     

Identification of Uranyl Minerals Using Oxygen K‐Edge X‐Ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Although most of the world's uranium exists as pitchblende or uraninite, this mineral can be weathered to a great variety of secondary uranium minerals, most containing the uranyl cation. Anthropogenic uranium compounds can also react in the environment, leading to spatial–chemical alterations that could be useful for nuclear forensics analyses. Soft X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) has the advantages of being non‐destructive, element‐specific and sensitive to electronic and physical structure. The soft X‐ray probe can also be focused to a spot size on the order of tens of nanometres, providing chemical information with high spatial resolution. However, before XAS can be applied at high spatial resolution, it is necessary to find spectroscopic signatures for a variety of uranium compounds in the soft X‐ray spectral region. To that end, we collected the near edge X‐ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectra of a variety of common uranyl‐bearing minerals, including uranyl carbonates, oxyhydroxides, phosphates and silicates. We find that uranyl compounds can be distinguished by class (carbonate, oxyhydroxide, phosphate or silicate) based on their oxygen K‐edge absorption spectra. This work establishes a database of reference spectra for future spatially resolved analyses. We proceed to show scanning X‐ray transmission microscopy (STXM) data from a schoepite particle in the presence of an unknown contaminant.     

High Precision Sr‐Nd‐Hf‐Pb Isotopic Compositions of USGS Reference Material BCR‐2

The Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory radiogenic isotope group has been systematically measuring Sr‐Nd‐Pb‐Hf isotopes of USGS reference material BCR‐2 (Columbia River Basalt 2), as a chemical processing and instrumental quality control monitor for isotopic measurements. BCR‐2 is now a widely used geochemical inter‐laboratory reference material (RM), with its predecessor BCR‐1 no longer available. Recognising that precise and accurate data on RMs is important for ensuring analytical quality and for comparing data between different laboratories, we present a compilation of multiple digestions and analyses made on BCR‐2 during the first author's dissertation research. The best estimates of Sr, Nd and Hf isotope ratios and measurement reproducibilities, after filtering at the 2s level for outliers, were ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.705000 ± 11 (2s, 16 ppm, n = 21, sixteen digestions, one outlier), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.512637 ± 13 (2s, 25 ppm, n = 27, thirteen digestions, one outlier) and ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf = 0.282866 ± 11 (2s, 39 ppm, n = 25, thirteen digestions, no outliers). Mean Nd and Hf values were within error of those reported by Weis et al. (2006, 2007) in their studies of RMs; mean Sr values were just outside the 2s uncertainty range of both laboratories. Moreover, a survey of published Sr‐Nd‐Hf data shows that our results fall within the range of reported values, but with a smaller variability. Our Pb isotope results on acid leached BCR‐2 aliquots (n = 26, twelve digestions, two outliers) were ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.8029 ± 10 (2s, 55 ppm), ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.6239 ± 8 (2s, 52 ppm), ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.8287 ± 25 (2s, 63 ppm). We confirm that unleached BCR‐2 powder is contaminated with Pb, and that sufficient leaching prior to digestion is required to achieve accurate values for the uncontaminated Pb isotopic compositions.