New Sediment Cores Reveal Environmental Changes Driven by Tectonic Processes at Ancient Helike,Greece

According to various historical sources an earthquake and an associated tsunami wiped out the Greek city of Helike on the Gulf of Corinth in 373 B.C. This study combines stratigraphical data from a new series of sediment cores with archaeological findings of the Helike Project to better assess the fate of Helike. Abrupt lithological changes, for example, from coarse‐grained littoral facies at the base to fine‐grained lagoonal deposits, in three of the new cores suggest sudden formation of lagoonal or lacustrine conditions in the central delta during tectonic events of subsidence due to fault‐slip. These events date before c. 2550 B.C., before 348 cal. B.C.–64 cal. A.D. (probably 373 B.C.), and before 1437–1634 cal. A.D. (probably A.D. 1402). Vertically displaced isochronic surfaces between two neighboring cores may be related to active faulting of the fan‐delta north of the Western Helike Fault Zone in 373 B.C. and A.D. 1402. Although the Helike Project reported possible tsunami evidence in earlier cores and trenches, no unequivocal sedimentary traces of a tsunami were identified in the Classical horizons of the new cores.     

Temporal variation in cannibalistic infanticide by the shore crab Hemigrapsus oregonensis: implications for reproductive success

Larvae of benthic marine organisms are released amid high densities of suspension feeding and predatory adults and are highly subject to being consumed, even by conspecifics or their own parent. During laboratory feeding trials conducted in June 2006, female shore crabs (Hemigrapsus oregonensis) from Stege Marsh in San Francisco Bay (37°54.530′ N, 122°19.734′ W) that released their larvae during the previous 24 h ate fewer conspecific larvae than females that had not recently released larvae, though the behavior was not repeated during similar trials in 2007. Additionally, the number of larvae eaten increased with increasing starvation time, and hungrier females showed a trend toward eating more larvae from a different species (Carcinus maenas) than larvae of conspecifics. Thus, suppression of suspension feeding may reduce conspecific predation of newly released larvae, but this response partially depends on hunger level. This is the first time crabs have been shown to suppress feeding to reduce cannibalism of larvae, and this behavior could affect reproductive success and population dynamics.     

The effect of multiple particle sizes on cooling rates of chondrules produced in large‐scale shocks in the solar nebula

Chondrules represent one of the best probes of the physical conditions and processes acting in the early solar nebula. Proposed chondrule formation models are assessed based on their ability to match the meteoritic evidence, especially experimental constraints on their thermal histories. The model most consistent with chondrule thermal histories is passage through shock waves in the solar nebula. Existing models of heating by shocks generally yield a good first‐order approximation to inferred chondrule cooling rates. However, they predict prolonged heating in the preshock region, which would cause volatile loss and isotopic fractionation, which are not observed. These models have typically included particles of a single (large) size, i.e., chondrule precursors, or at most, large particles accompanied by micron‐sized grains. The size distribution of solids present during chondrule formation controls the opacity of the affected region, and significantly affects the thermal histories of chondrules. Micron‐sized grains evaporate too quickly to prevent excessive heating of chondrule precursors. However, isolated grains in chondrule‐forming regions would rapidly coagulate into fractal aggregates. Preshock heating by infrared radiation from the shock front would cause these aggregates to melt and collapse into intermediate‐sized (tens of microns) particles. We show that inclusion of such particles yields chondrule cooling rates consistent with petrologic and isotopic constraints.     

A systematic investigation of cross-validation in GWR model estimation: empirical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations

In geographically weighted regression, one must determine a window size which will be used to subset the data locally. Typically, a cross-validation procedure is used to determine a globally optimal window size. Preliminary investigations indicate that the global cross-validation score is heavily influenced by a small number of observations in the dataset. At present, the ramifications of this behaviour in cross-validation are unknown. The research reported here explores the extent to which individual and groups of observations impact optimal window size determination, and whether one can explain why some points are more influential than others. In addition, we strive to examine the impact neighbourhood specification has on model quality in terms of predictive capabilities and the ability of the method to retrieve spatially varying processes. The analysis is based on several datasets and using simulated data in order to compare and validate results. The results provide some practical guidelines for the use of cross-validation.

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A cross-analysis framework for multi-source volunteered,crowdsourced, and authoritative geographic information: The case study of volunteered personal traces analysis against transport network data

Abstract

The paper discusses the need of a high-level query language to allow analysts, geographers and, in general, non-programmers to easily cross-analyze multi-source VGI created by means of apps, crowd-sourced data from social networks and authoritative geo-referenced data, usually represented as JSON data sets (nowadays, the de facto standard for data exported by social networks). Since an easy to use high-level language for querying and manipulating collections of possibly geo-tagged JSON objects is still unavailable, we propose a truly declarative language, named J-CO-QL, that is based on a well-defined execution model. A plug-in for a GIS permits to visualize geo-tagged data sets stored in a NoSQL database such as MongoDB; furthermore, the same plug-in can be used to write and execute J-CO-QL queries on those databases. The paper introduces the language by exemplifying its operators within a real study case, the aim of which is to understand the mobility of people in the neighborhood of Bergamo city. Cross-analysis of data about transportation networks and VGI from travelers is performed, by means of J-CO-QL language, capable to manipulate and transform, combine and join possibly geo-tagged JSON objects, in order to produce new possibly geo-tagged JSON objects satisfying users’ needs.     

Predicting Aeolian Sand Transport: Revisiting the White Model

The derivation and history of the frequently cited aeolian transport model of White are considered in light of the continued replication of an error in the original expression. The error may have escaped notice because the expression is still dimensionally correct and it yields predictions that appear reasonable in comparison with both the predictions of other models with field data. The incorrect expression has come to be identified as a distinct model. However, the correct formulation of the ‘White model’ is, in fact, a rearrangement of the Kawamura model with a slightly smaller (c.6%) empirical coefficient. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MultiscaleDTM: An open-source R package for multiscale geomorphometric analysis

Digital terrain models (DTMs) are datasets containing altitude values above or below a reference level, such as a reference ellipsoid or a tidal datum over geographic space, often in the form of a regularly gridded raster. They can be used to calculate terrain attributes that describe the shape and characteristics of topographic surfaces. Calculating these terrain attributes often requires multiple software packages that can be expensive and specialized. We have created a free, open-source R package, MultiscaleDTM , that allows for the calculation of members from each of the five major thematic groups of terrain attributes: slope, aspect, curvature, relative position, and roughness, from a regularly gridded DTM. Furthermore, these attributes can be calculated at multiple spatial scales of analysis, a key feature that is missing from many other packages. Here, we demonstrate the functionality of the package and provide a simulation exploring the relationship between slope and roughness. When roughness measures do not account for slope, these attributes exhibit a strong positive correlation. To minimize this correlation, we propose a new roughness measure called adjusted standard deviation. In most scenarios tested, this measure produced the lowest rank correlation with slope out of all the roughness measures tested. Lastly, the simulation shows that some existing roughness measures from the literature that are supposed to be independent of slope can actually exhibit a strong inverse relationship with the slope in some cases.     

Climate change effects on landslides along the southwest coast of British Columbia

Antecedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall both contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in British Columbia. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide frequencies.In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short-term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Columbia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating statistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall.The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenarios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in simulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means.The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century.     

Distributed hydrological modelling using weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins

Distributed hydrological modelling using space–time estimates of rainfall from weather radar provides a natural approach to area-wide flood forecasting and warning at any location, whether gauged or ungauged. However, radar estimates of rainfall may lack consistent, quantitative accuracy. Also, the formulation of hydrological models in distributed form may be problematic due to process complexity and scaling issues. Here, the aim is to first explore ways of improving radar rainfall accuracy through combination with raingauge network data via integrated multiquadric methods. When the resulting gridded rainfall estimates are employed as input to hydrological models, the simulated river flows show marked improvements when compared to using radar data alone. Secondly, simple forms of physical–conceptual distributed hydrological model are considered, capable of exploiting spatial datasets on topography and, where necessary, land-cover, soil and geology properties. The simplest Grid-to-Grid model uses only digital terrain data to delineate flow pathways and to control runoff production, the latter by invoking a probability-distributed relation linking terrain slope to soil absorption capacity. Model performance is assessed over nested river basins in northwest England, employing a lumped model as a reference. When the distributed model is used with the gridded radar-based rainfall estimators, it shows particular benefits for forecasting at ungauged locations.     

A sediment record of trace metal loadings in the Upper Mississippi River

Sediment cores from Lake Pepin, a natural lake on the Upper Mississippi River, reveal the historical trends in trace metal use and discharge in the watershed. Lead-210 dated concentration profiles of trace metals (Ag, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, V, Zn) in sediment cores from throughout the lake generally showed low and stable concentrations prior to settlement (circa 1830), peak concentrations between 1940 and 1975, and substantial decreases thereafter. Whole-lake sediment accumulation rates increased greatly over the period of record, from 79,000 metric tons year⁻¹ prior to 1830, to 876,000 metric tons year⁻¹ during the 1990s. Whole-lake accumulation rates of most trace metals peaked in the 1960s but decreased sharply after that. Sediment and trace metal accumulation rates decreased in the downstream direction, and approximately two-thirds of the sediment and trace metal mass accumulated in Lake Pepin since 1800 was deposited in the upper 30% (by area) of the lake. The dramatic declines in trace metal concentrations and accumulation rates in Lake Pepin sediments since 1970 coincide with increased pollution control and prevention efforts throughout the watershed, including the implementation of secondary treatment at a large municipal wastewater treatment plant upstream. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D.R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.