Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.     

Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

SST errors in the tropical Atlantic are large and systematic in current coupled general-circulation models. We analyse the growth of these errors in the region of the south-eastern tropical Atlantic in initialised decadal hindcasts integrations for three of the models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5. A variety of causes for the initial bias development are identified, but a crucial involvement is found, in all cases considered, of ocean-atmosphere coupling for their maintenance. These involve an oceanic “bridge” between the Equator and the Benguela-Angola coastal seas which communicates sub-surface ocean anomalies and constitutes a coupling between SSTs in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic and the winds over the Equator. The resulting coupling between SSTs, winds and precipitation represents a positive feedback for warm SST errors in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic.     

African Inland Fisheries: Experiences with Co-Management and Policies of Decentralization

Most countries in Africa have promoted some form of decentralized fisheries management either as discrete co-management projects or as a component of broader decentralization processes that cut across other sectors. These initiatives were shaped by an international policy narrative that emphasises participation in decision making and development. A review of fisheries decentralization experiences in Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria, and Malawi reveals marked differences in purpose, strategy, and performance. In general, co-management projects are limited by their ability to scale up new practice and to maintain viable and representative management institutions. In other cases, the decentralization process is not well supported politically or locally or does not articulate with fisheries policy. Experiences of decentralization in other sectors provide useful lessons. Acknowledging the informal institutional environment or realpolitikof fisheries and the rural economy could provide opportunities to better manage and review the process of decentralization.     

Entanglement of Antarctic fur seals at Bouvetøya, Southern Ocean

Entanglements of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella were recorded during four summers from 1996 to 2002 at the subantarctic island, Bouvetøya. Rates of entanglement varied between 0.024% and 0.059%. These rates are low for a pinniped population and might be because of the geographic isolation of the haulout site. An apparent decrease in the levels of entanglement over the course of the study was likely due, at least in part, to the removal of entanglements by observers. At least two-thirds of entangling materials were generated by fishery sources. Since there is no known local source of anthropogenic marine pollution, seals become entangled either in waters distant from the island, or when materials drift into local waters. Significantly more subadults were found entangled than expected from the postulated population age class distribution.     

A computational chemical study of penetration and displacement of water films near mineral surfaces

A series of molecular dynamics simulations have been performed on organic–water mixtures near mineral surfaces. These simulations show that, in contrast to apolar compounds, small polar organic compounds such as phenols can penetrate through thin water films to adsorb on these mineral surfaces. Furthermore, additional simulations involving demixing of an organic–water mixture near a surfactant-covered mineral surface demonstrate that even low concentrations of adsorbed polar compounds can induce major changes in mineral surface wettability, allowing sorption of apolar molecules. This strongly supports a two-stage adsorption mechanism for organic solutes, involving initial migration of small polar organic molecules to the mineral surface followed by water film displacement due to co-adsorption of the more apolar organic compounds, thus converting an initial water-wet mineral system to an organic-covered surface. This has profound implications for studies of petroleum reservoir diagenesis and wettability changes.