Optimal carbon emissions trajectories when damages depend on the rate or level of global warming

In this paper we extend our earlier work with the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment model (CETA) to consider a number of issues relating to the nature of optimal carbon emissions trajectories. We first explore model results when warming costs are associated with the rate of temperature rise, rather than with its level, as in our earlier work. We find that optimal trajectories are more strongly affected by the degree of non-linearity in the warming cost function than by whether the cost function is driven by the warming level or the warming rate. Next we briefly explore the implications of simple uncertainty and risk aversion for optimal emissions trajectories. We find that uncertainty and risk aversion cause optimal emissions trajectories to be somewhat lower, but that the effect is not noticeable in the near term and not dramatic in the long term; the long term effect on the shadow price of carbon is more marked, however. Finally, we experiment with scaling up the warming cost functions until optimal policies are approximately the same as a policy of stabilizing emissions at the 1990 level. Based on the results of this experiment, we conclude that damages would have to be very high to justify anything like a stabilization policy; and even in this case, a policy allowing intertemporal variation in emissions would be better.This paper does not represent the position of EPRI or of its members.     

Demonstration of sub-meter GPS orbit determination and 1.5 parts in 108 three-dimensional baseline accuracy

Differential tracking of theGPS satellites in high-earth orbit provides a powerful relative positioning capability, even when a relatively small continental U.S. fiducial tracking network is used with less than one-third of the fullGPS constellation. To demonstrate this capability, we have determined baselines of up to2000 km in North America by estimating high-accuracyGPS orbits and ground receiver positions simultaneously. The2000 km baselines agree with very long baseline interferometry(VLBI) solutions at the level of1.5 parts in10 ⁸ and showrms daily repeatability of0.3–2 parts in10 ⁸. The orbits determined for the most thoroughly trackedGPS satellites are accurate to better than1 m. GPS orbit accuracy was assessed from orbit predictions, comparisons with independent data sets, and the accuracy of the continental baselines determined along with the orbits. The bestGPS orbit strategies included data arcs of at least one week, process noise models for tropospheric fluctuations, estimation ofGPS solar pressure coefficients, and combined processing ofGPS carrier phase and pseudorange data. For data arcs of two weeks, constrained process noise models forGPS dynamic parameters significantly improved the solutions.     

Eutrophication and management initiatives for the control of nutrient inputs to Rhode Island coastal lagoons

An assessment of developing eutrophic conditions in small temperate lagoons along the coast of Rhode Island suggests that in such shallow, macrophyte based systems the response to nutrient enrichment differs from that described for plankton based systems. The nitrogen loadings per unit area of the salt ponds are 240–770 mmol N per m² per year. Instead of the high nutrient concentrations, increased phytoplankton biomass and turbidity, leading to eventual loss of benthic macrophytes described for such systems as the Chesapeake, Patuxent and Appalachicola Bay, nutrient enrichment of the Rhode Island lagoons has led to increased growth of marine macroalgae. The increased macroalgal growth appears to alter the benthic habitat and a shift from a grazing to detrital food chain appears to be impacting important shellfisheries. As more extensive areas of organic sediments develop, geochemical cycling changes, resulting in higher rates of nitrogen remineralization and accelerated eutrophication. The major sources of nitrogen inputs to the salt ponds have been identified and a series of management initiatives have been designed to limit inputs from present and potential development within the watersheds of the lagoons.     

SIMPLE ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE HP41CV PROGRAMMABLE CALCULATOR

Abstract. Two useful programs have been developed for the Hewlett Packard HP41CV programmable calculator. The THEIS program is designed to simulate a well pumping from a confined or unconfined aquifer. Drawdown, residual drawdown, t/t₁ and t/r² are calculated. The BOUN program is designed to solve for drawdown in a well pumping from an aquifer bounded by two parallel impermeable barriers. The programs can be used in aquifer pumping test design, pumping test analysis, and aquifer response predictions.     

Tarawera 1886, New Zealand — A basaltic plinian fissure eruption

New Zealand's biggest and most destructive volcanic eruption of historical times was that of Tarawera in 1886. The resulting scoria fall has a dispersal very similar in extent to that of the Vesuvius A.D. 79 pumice fall and is one of the few known examples of a basaltic deposit of plinian type. A new estimate of the volume (2 km³) is significantly greater than previous estimates. The basalt came mainly from a 7-km length of fissure, and emission and exit velocity were fairly uniform along at least 4 km of it, this is one of the few documented examples of a plinian eruption from a fissure vent. Primary welding of the scoria fall resulted where the accumulation rate exceeded about 250 mm min⁻¹. A model of the eruption dynamics is proposed which leads to an estimate of 28 km for the height of the eruption cloud and implies a magma volatile fraction of 1.5–3%. Violent phreatic explosions occurred in the southwestern extension of the fissure across the Rotomahana geothermal field, and it is thought that some of the water responsible for the power of the plinian eruption came from this source, though its amount was not sufficient to turn the eruption into a phreatoplinian one.     

Buried trees,water table fluctuations,and 3000 years of changing climate in west-central Oklahoma

A sequence of radiocarbon-dated buried trees, buried soils, a carbonate zone, and a molluscan fauna from Carnegie Canyon indicate that between 3200 and 2600 yr B.P. the climate of west-central Oklahoma was drier than today. A high water table accompanied a period of moister climate 2000 to 1000 yr B.P. The water table dropped after 1000 yr B.P. due to a change toward dry conditions.     

Hydrogen speciation in synthetic quartz

The dominant hydrogen impurity in synthetic quartz is molecular H₂O. H-OH groups also occur, but there is no direct evidence for the hydrolysis of Si-O-Si bonds to yield Si-OH HO-Si groups. Molecular H₂O concentrations in the synthetic quartz crystals studied range from less than 10 to 3,300 ppm (H/Si), and decrease smoothly by up to an order of magnitude with distance away from the seed. OH^? concentrations range from 96 to 715 ppm, and rise smoothly with distance away from the seed by up to a factor of three. The observed OH^? is probably all associated with cationic impurities, as in natural quartz. Molecular H₂O is the dominant initial hydrogen impurity in weak quartz. The hydrolytic weakening of quartz may be caused by the transformation H₂O + Si-O-Si → 2SiOH, but this may be a transitory change with the SiOH groups recombining to form H₂O, and the average SiOH concentration remaining very low. Synthetic quartz is strengthened when the H₂O is accumulated into fluid inclusions and cannot react with the quartz framework.     

Computer simulations of the structural and physical properties of the olivine and spinel polymorphs of Mg2SiO4

The aim of the work presented is to develop a computer simulation technique which will predict the structure and physical properties of forsterite and ringwoodite, the major mantle-forming polymorphs of Mg₂SiO₄. The technique is based upon energy minimization, in which all structural parameters are varied until the configuration with the lowest energy is achieved. The lattice energy and physical properties (e.g. elasticity and dielectric constants) are calculated from interatomic potentials, which generally include electrostatic and short-range terms. We investigate several types of traditional potential models, and present a new type of model which includes partial ionic charges and a Morse potential to describe the effect of covalency on the Si-O bond. This new form of potential model is highly successful, and not only reproduces the zero-pressure structural, elastic and dielectric properties of forsterite and ringwoodite, but also accurately describes their pressure dependence.