Seismic Hazards Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites in Regions of Low Seismic Activity

A comparative tectonic quiescence and lack of earthquakes make the stable centres of continents attractive for siting long-term radioactive waste storage facilities. The low rates of deformation in such regions, however, make it difficult to characterize their long-term seismotectonic behaviour, leading to uncertain estimates for the very low probability hazard estimates required by society. In an attempt to overcome the deficiency of both contemporary seismicity and paleoseismic data in central Canada, we have used earthquake histories from regions with similar seismotectonic characteristics from around the world. Substituting space for time, we estimate a long-term rate per 10⁶ km² of 0.004 magnitude ≥6 earthquakes per annum, of which 33–100% might rupture to the surface.     

Sensitivity of modeled tropical cyclone track and structure of hurricane Irene (1999) to the convective parameterization scheme

Summary The Betts-Miller and the Kain-Fritsch schemes are two of the many approaches to convective parameterization available to modelers. In the case of hurricane Irene (1999), the choice of parameterization markedly impacted the modeled track and structure of the hurricane and its subsequent extratropical transition. Specifically, in model runs using Betts-Miller, Irene recurved too early, causing the storm to weaken over the cool open ocean, delaying its transition, and changing the character of the storm. The Kain-Fritsch scheme more accurately reproduced the track of Irene and, hence, its interaction with upper-level features that caused extratropical transition and post-transition intensification. The two parameterizations produce different characteristic vertical warming profiles; the differences in warming are related to the structural differences in the simulated storm, affecting the hurricane response to its environment. Received October 13, 2001 Revised December 23, 2001     

A Note On Surface Humidity Measurements In The Cold Canadian Environment

In the cold Canadian environment, humidity measurements can be verydifficult to conduct. In this brief communication, humidity observationstaken by two different sensors at six remote Canadian Arctic locations arecompared. The observations collected by Vaisala HMP35CF sensors displaya strong tendency toward the ice saturation point whereas dew cell instrumentsexhibit significantly lower values of relative humidity with respect to ice (RH_i).Humidity data collected by HMP35CF hygrometers are therefore unreliable sincethey are subject to persistent icing that lead them to record values of RH_i near 100%, irrespective of the air temperature. The high humidity bias emerges atmeteorological stations mounted with the HMP35CF probes since these instrumentsare usually neither sheltered nor heated, and are not attended to at regular intervals. Thus, great care must be taken in utilizing humidity data recorded by HMP35CF sensors across the network of climate autostations in Canada.     

Cosmogenic-nuclide ages for New England coastal moraines, Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA

Cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages for 13 glacially transported boulders atop the Martha's Vineyard moraine, MA, USA, indicate that the southeastern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet reached its maximum extent during the last glaciation 23,200±500 yr ago. Another 10 age determinations from the younger Buzzards Bay moraine near Woods Hole, MA, indicate that this moraine complex was formed 18,800±400 yr ago. These ages correlate approximately with the terminations of cooling cycles recorded in Greenland ice cores and coeval ice-rafting events, suggesting that the marginal position of this sector of the ice sheet was tightly coupled to North Atlantic climate during the last glacial maximum.     

δC of low-molecular-weight organic acids generated by the hydrous pyrolysis of oil-prone source rocks

Low-molecular-weight (LMW) aqueous organic acids were generated from six oil-prone source rocks under hydrous-pyrolysis conditions. Differences in total organic carbon-normalized acid generation are a function of the initial thermal maturity of the source rock and the oxygen content of the kerogen (OI). Carbon-isotope analyses were used to identify potential generation mechanisms and other chemical reactions that might influence the occurrence of LMW organic acids. The generated LMW acids display increasing ¹³C content as a function of decreasing molecular weight and increasing thermal maturity. The magnitudes of observed isotope fractionations are source-rock dependent. These data are consistent with δ¹³C values of organic acids presented in a field study of the San Joaquin Basin and likely reflect the contributions from alkyl-carbons and carboxyl-carbons with distinct δ¹³C values. The data do not support any particular organic acid generation mechanism. The isotopic trends observed as a function of molecular weight, thermal maturity, and rock type are not supported by either generation mechanisms or destructive decarboxylation. It is therefore proposed that organic acids experience isotopic fractionation during generation consistent with a primary kinetic isotope effect and subsequently undergo an exchange reaction between the carboxyl carbon and dissolved inorganic carbon that significantly influences the carbon isotope composition observed for the entire molecule. Although generation and decarboxylation may influence the δ¹³C values of organic acids, in the hydrous pyrolysis system described, the nondestructive, pH-dependent exchange of carboxyl carbon with inorganic carbon appears to be the most important reaction mechanism controlling the δ¹³C values of the organic acids.     

G-Probe-1 - An International Proficiency Test for Microprobe Laboratories - Report on Round 1 : February 2002 (TB-1 Basaltic Glass)

Results are presented for round one of a new international proficiency testing programme designed for microprobe laboratories involved in the routine analysis of silicate minerals. The sample used for this round was TB-1, a basaltic glass fused and prepared by the USGS. Thirty nine laboratories contributed data to this round, the majority of major element results being undertaken by EPMA and the majority of trace elements by LA-ICP-MS. Assigned values were derived from the median of results produced by nine selected laboratories that analysed powdered material by conventional ICP-MS, INAA and XRF techniques using bulk powders of the sample. Submitted microprobe results were evaluated using a target precision calculated using the Horwitz function, adopting the same criteria as those used for "applied" geochemistry laboratories in the companion GeoPT proficiency testing programme for laboratories involved in the routine bulk analysis of silicate rocks. An evaluation of results from participating microprobe laboratories indicated that overall, data were compatible with this precision function. A comparison between the performance of bulk and microprobe techniques used in the analysis of the basaltic glass showed remarkably good agreement, with significant bias only observed for the major oxide MgO.     

Integrated Two-Dimensional Modeling of Fluid Flow and Compaction in a Sedimentary Basin

In this paper we employ mixed finite elements and numerically study an integrated two-dimensional model of fluid flow and compaction in a sedimentary basin. This model describes a single phase incompressible flow in a two-dimensional section of a sedimentary basin with vertical compaction. At each time step, an iterative algorithm is used to solve this model. The determination of the grid movement is based on the mass conservation and movement of sediments in the basin, while the mixed method is utilized to solve the fluid flow over the moving grid. Numerical experiments are presented to verify this iterative algorithm and show representative solutions for the model under consideration.     

A model of equilibrium bed topography for meander bends with erodible banks

Channel curvature produces secondary currents and a transverse sloping channel bed, along which the depth increases towards the outer bank. As a result deep pools tend to form adjacent to the outer bank, promoting bank collapse. The interaction of sediment grains with the primary and secondary flow and the transverse sloping bed also causes meanders to move different grain sizes in different proportions and directions, resulting in a consistent sorting pattern. Several models have been developed to describe this process, but they all have the potential to over‐predict pool depth because they cannot account for the influence of erodible banks. In reality, bank collapse might lead to the development of a wider, shallower cross‐section and any resulting flow depth discrepancy can bias associated predictions of flow, sediment transport, and grain‐size sorting. While bed topography, sediment transport and grain sorting in bends will partly be controlled by the sedimentary characteristics of the bank materials, the magnitude of this effect has not previously been explored. This paper reports the development of a model of flow, sediment transport, grain‐size sorting, and bed topography for river bends with erodible banks. The model is tested via intercomparison of predicted and observed bed topography in one low‐energy (5·3 W m^?2 specific stream power) and one high‐energy (43·4 W m^?2) study reach, namely the River South Esk in Scotland and Goodwin Creek in Mississippi, respectively. Model predictions of bed topography are found to be satisfactory, at least close to the apices of bends. Finally, the model is used in sensitivity analyses that provide insight into the influence of bank erodibility on equilibrium meander morphology and associated patterns of grain‐size sorting. The sensitivity of meander response to bank cohesion is found to increase as a function of the available stream power within the two study bends. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.