Salt-induced crestal faults control the formation of Quaternary tunnel valleys in the southern North Sea

Tunnel valleys are major features of glaciated margins and they enable meltwater expulsion from underneath a thick ice cover. Their formation is related to the erosion of subglacial sediments by overpressured meltwater and direct glacial erosion. Yet, the impact of pre-existing structures on their formation and morphology remains poorly known. High-quality 3D seismic data allowed the mapping of a large tunnel valley that eroded underlying preglacial delta deposits in the southern North Sea. The valley follows the N–S strike of crestal faults related to a Zechstein salt wall. A change in downstream tunnel valley orientation towards the SE accompanies a change in the strike direction of salt-induced faults. Fault offsets indicate important activity of crestal faults during the deposition of preglacial deltaic sediments. We propose that crestal faults facilitated tunnel valley erosion by acting as high-permeability pathways and allowing subglacial meltwater to reach low-permeability sediments in the underlying Neogene deltaic sequences, ultimately resulting in meltwater overpressure build-up and tunnel valley excavation. Active faults probably also weakened the near-surface sediment to allow a more efficient erosion of the glacial substrate. This control of substrate structures on tunnel valley morphology is considered as a primary factor in subglacial drainage pattern development in the study area.     

Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.     

GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle

In 1989, the need for reliable gridded land surface precipitation data sets, in view of the large uncertainties in the assessment of the global energy and water cycle, has led to the establishment of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) at Deutscher Wetterdienst on invitation of the WMO. The GPCC has calculated a precipitation climatology for the global land areas for the target period 1951–2000 by objective analysis of climatological normals of about 67,200 rain gauge stations from its data base. GPCC's new precipitation climatology is compared to several other station-based precipitation climatologies as well as to precipitation climatologies derived from the GPCP V2.2 data set and from ECMWF's model reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Finally, how GPCC's best estimate for terrestrial mean precipitation derived from the precipitation climatology of 786 mm per year (equivalent to a water transport of 117,000 km³) is fitting into the global water cycle context is discussed.     

Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country’s second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate’s exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.     

A New Equation Solver for Modeling Turbulent Flow in Coupled Matrix‐Conduit Flow Models

Karst aquifers represent dual flow systems consisting of a highly conductive conduit system embedded in a less permeable rock matrix. Hybrid models iteratively coupling both flow systems generally consume much time, especially because of the nonlinearity of turbulent conduit flow. To reduce calculation times compared to those of existing approaches, a new iterative equation solver for the conduit system is developed based on an approximated Newton–Raphson expression and a Gauß–Seidel or successive over‐relaxation scheme with a single iteration step at the innermost level. It is implemented and tested in the research code CAVE but should be easily adaptable to similar models such as the Conduit Flow Process for MODFLOW‐2005. It substantially reduces the computational effort as demonstrated by steady‐state benchmark scenarios as well as by transient karst genesis simulations. Water balance errors are found to be acceptable in most of the test cases. However, the performance and accuracy may deteriorate under unfavorable conditions such as sudden, strong changes of the flow field at some stages of the karst genesis simulations.     

A Tailored Computation of the Mean Dynamic Topography for a Consistent Integration into Ocean Circulation Models

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography—the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99–110, 2012; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie 2012). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.     

Scaling Transition in Earthquake Sources: A Possible Link Between Seismic and Laboratory Measurements

We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M _W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M _W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M _W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M _W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M _W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M _W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M _W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.     

Regional grain size variations in aeolian sediments along the transition between Tibetan highlands and north‐western Chinese deserts – the influence of geomorphological settings on aeolian transport pathways

Sediment distribution is investigated applying grain size analysis to 279 surface samples from the transitional zone between high mountains (Qilian Shan) and their arid forelands (Hexi Corridor) in north‐western China. Six main sediment types were classified. Medium scale (10³ m) geomorphological setting is carefully considered as it may play an important role concerning sediment supply and availability. A tripartite distribution of sedimentological landscape units along the mountain to foreland transition is evident. Aeolian sediments (e.g. loess and dune sands) are widespread. They are used to identify aeolian transport pathways. The mU/fS‐ratio (5–11 µm/48–70 µm) among primary loess opposes the two grain size fractions being most sensitive to varying accumulation conditions. The first fraction is attributed to long‐distance transport in high suspension clouds whereas the latter represents local transport in saltation mode. The ratio shows strong correlation with elevation (R² = 0.77). Thus, it indicates a relatively higher far‐traveled dust supply in mountainous areas (>3000 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) compared to the foreland. The contribution of westerlies to high mountain loess deposits is considered likely. Hereby, the influence of the geomorphological setting on grain size composition of aeolian sediments becomes apparent: the contribution from distant dust sources is ubiquitous in the study area. However, the far‐distance contribution may be reduced by the availability of fine sand provided in low topography settings. Plain foreland areas support fine sand deflation from supplying river beds, allowing the formation of sandy loess in foreland areas and intramontane basins. In contrast, high mountain topography inhibits strong sand deflation into loess deposits. Eastern parts of the Hexi Corridor show higher aeolian sand occurrence. In contrast, the western parts are dominated by gravel gobi surfaces. This is attributed to higher sand supply in eastern parts provided by the Badain Jaran Desert and fluvial storages as sand sources. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating the sensitivity of wetlands to climate change with remote sensing techniques

Wetlands are valuable ecosystems that provide many valuable services, yet many of these important ecosystems are at risk because of current trends in climate change. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in the upper‐midwest of the United States and south‐central Canada, characterized by glacially sculpted landscapes and abundant wetlands, is one such vulnerable region. According to regional/global climate model predictions, drought occurrence will increase in the PPR region through the 21st century and thus will probably cause the amount of water in wetlands to decline. Water surface area (WSA) of Kidder County, ND, from 1984–2011 was measured by classifying TM/ETM+(Landsat Thematic Mapper / Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) images through the modified normalized difference water index. We then developed a linear model based on the WSA of these wetlands and historical climate data and used this to determine the wetland sensitivity to climate change and predict future wetlands WSA in the PPR. Our model based on Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) of the current year (PDSI_{t ? 0}) and of the previous two years (PDSI_{t ? 2}) can explain 79% of the annual wetland WSA variance, suggesting a high sensitivity of wetlands to drought/climate change. We also predicted the PPR wetlands WSA in the 21st century under A1B scenario (a mid‐carbon emission scenario) using simulated PDSI based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 22‐model ensemble climate. According to our prediction, the WSA of the PPR wetlands will decrease to less than half of the baseline WSA (defined as the mean wetlands WSA of the 2000s) by the mid of the 21st century, and to less than one‐third by the 2080s, and will then slightly increase in the 2090s. This considerable future wetland loss caused only by climate change provides important implication to future wetland management and climate adaptation policy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perthite microstructure in magmatic alkali feldspar with oscillatory zoning; Weinsberg Granite, Upper Austria

Feldspar megacrysts from the Weinsberg granite (Moldanubian Zone) show oscillatory zoning with respect to the albite- and orthoclase components. All growth zones show perthitic exsolutions which take the form of bleb- and lens shaped albite-rich precipitates in an orthoclase-rich host. The average sizes and shapes of the precipitates show systematic variation with the integrated bulk compositions of the respective growth zones. The precipitates are abundant and relatively small in growth zones with intermediate bulk composition (Or50Ab41An09 - Or80Ab18An02), and they are less abundant and larger in more orthoclase-rich zones (Or88Ab11An01). Small precipitates have a relatively high aspect ratio, whereas the large precipitates in the potassium-rich zones are more spherical. The relation between microstructure and integrated bulk composition suggests that exsolution and subsequent growth and coarsening occurred by different mechanisms in the respective growth zones. Numerical modeling shows that rapid growth of precipitates over extended periods of time and attainment of relatively large final size is favored, if only few nuclei are formed in an oversaturated host. In contrast, precipitates can grow rapidly only over limited time intervals and remain relatively small, if abundant nuclei are present. During cooling of the oscillatorily zoned alkali-feldspar, exsolution started at relatively high temperatures in growth zones of intermediate integrated bulk composition as compared to exsolution in the more orthoclase-rich growth zones. Irrespective of whether exsolution occurred by spinodal decomposition or by nucleation at relatively high temperatures in the growth zones of intermediate integrated bulk composition, it produced abundant nuclei and resulted in relatively small precipitates. In contrast, comparatively few nuclei were formed in the orthoclase-rich growth zones resulting in large precipitates. The Na/K partitioning between precipitates and the host is independent of the integrated bulk composition of the respective growth zone reflecting re-equilibration during cooling down to relatively low temperatures (<?400°C). The shape of the precipitates probably has evolved from an initially lamellar or spindle-like geometry with high aspect ratio to more isometric, spheroidal shapes during precipitate growth and coarsening. Host/precipitate interfaces served as fluid pathways during late stage deuteric alteration.