Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications

Abstract

The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Optimal Compensation and Implementation for Adaptive Optics Systems

This paper develops a compensation algorithm based on Linear–Quadratic–Gaussian (LQG) control system design whose parameters are determined (in part) by a model of the atmosphere. The model for the atmosphere is based on the open-loop statistics of the atmosphere as observed by the wavefront sensor, and is identified from these using an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) model. The (LQG) control design is compared with an existing compensation algorithm for a simulation developed at ESO that represents the operation of MACAO adaptive optics system on the 8.2 m telescopes at Paranal, Chile. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Post-breakup basaltic magmatism along the East Greenland Tertiary rifted margin

Mafic and ultramafic intrusions in East Greenland adjacent to the offshore Greenland–Iceland ridge were emplaced 5–9 My after continental breakup at 55 Ma [1]. Rare earth element (REE) concentrations determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry are reported for cumulus clinopyroxene from these intrusions, and the data are used to estimate REE abundance in equilibrium melts using available partitioning data. Estimated equilibrium melts from intrusions have strongly fractionated REE patterns with Nd/Dy(N) in the range 2 to 5.6 and Yb/Dy(N) 0.55 to 0.92, similar to values for coeval basalts. These melts have markedly higher Nd/Dy(N) than earlier breakup related flood basalts. The moderately low Yb/Dy(N) for the post-breakup volcanism is indicative of residual garnet in the source, while their high Nd/Dy(N) ratios can best be explained by aggregating low degree melts from a light-REE-enriched garnet- and spinel-bearing mantle source. We also report He, Sr, and Nd isotopic data for the intrusions. The highest ³He/⁴He ratios (>10 R/R_a) are found in the samples whose REE data reflect the largest proportion of melts from a garnet-bearing source, and having Sr and Nd isotopic compositions identical with the radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd isotope end of the Iceland compositional field. There is no indication of a MORB-type mantle in the source of the intrusions. We postulate that post-breakup volcanism along the East Greenland coastline reflects the increasing proximity of the mantle plume to the East Greenland continental margin. The low degree of melting at high mean pressure inferred for the parental melts for the intrusions may reflect re-thickening of the lithosphere, which in turn was caused by the vigorous volcanism during breakup, with accompanying depletion of upper mantle and underplating of the crust at the continental margin.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006. During this period, 572 earthquakes and 91 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, two occurred in conjunction with the construction of the new Gotthard railway tunnel and 165 were induced artificially by the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel. With 20 events with M _L ≥ 2.5, five of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2006 was far below the average over the previous 31 years. Nevertheless, six events were felt by the public, most prominently the strongest of the induced Basel events (M _L 3.4), which caused some non-structural building damage. Noteworthy are also the two earthquakes near Cortaillod (M _L 3.2), on the shore of Lake Neuchatel, and in Val Mora (M _L 3.5), between the Engadin and Val Müstair, as well as the 42 aftershocks of the M _L 4.9 Vallorcine earthquake, between Martigny and Chamonix, of September 2005. Editorial handling: Stefan Bucher     

Reconstructing palaeotemperatures for the Early and Middle Pleistocene using the mutual climatic range method based on plant fossils

A new approach is proposed to obtain quantitative temperature reconstructions from Early and Middle Pleistocene pollen and megafloral records. Utilizing the indicator species concept pioneered by Iversen (1944, Geologiska Föreningen Förhandlingar Stockholm 66, 463–483), the new methodology overcomes the problem of non-analogue plant communities by only taking into account the presence/absence of taxa rather than their relative abundances. Based on the present day thermal tolerances of the taxa from a fossil assemblage, the temperature interval in which all taxa from this assemblage can coexist is determined. A databank containing the climate tolerances of 85 taxa from European pollen records was established. To increase the temperature resolution of the method, procedures were developed to assess the most likely intervals for the actual temperatures within the calculated common thermospheres and the routine evaluation of the mean temperatures of the warmest and coldest months (MTW and MTC). After calibrating the approach on modern assemblages, it was applied to Tiglian and Holsteinian pollen sequences from Lieth (northern Germany) and Lac du Bourget (northern French Alps). For both records the method yields detailed temperature reconstructions of temperate and cold episodes. During the coldest episode of the Lieth section, the MTC may have been as low as −16°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 14.5 to 21°C, thus testifying to a strong continentality at that time. During the warmest period reconstructed for the Lieth section, the MTC was similar to the value as measured in the area today (1.5°C), whereas the MTW was probably higher than at present (20.1°C). For the coldest interval from the Lac du Bourget pollen sequence, the reconstructed MTC values reach a minimum of −15°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 15 to 22°C, again implying a strong continentality. For the warmest period our approach yields MTC values between −2 and 2°C and MTW values between 16.5 and 22°C. For both records, the resolution for the MTW and MTC reaches 1.5 and 2.5°C, respectively.     

Impact of drilling mud on chemistry and microbiology of an Upper Triassic groundwater after drilling and testing an exploration well for aquifer thermal energy storage in Berlin (Germany)

After completion of an exploration well, sandstones of the Exter Formation were hydraulically tested to determine the hydraulic properties and to evaluate chemical and microbial processes caused by drilling and water production. The aim was to determine the suitability of the formation as a reservoir for aquifer thermal energy storage. The tests revealed a hydraulic conductivity of 1–2 E-5 m/s of the reservoir, resulting in a productivity index of 0.6–1 m³/h/bar. A hydraulic connection of the Exter Formation to the overlaying, artesian “Rupelbasissand” cannot be excluded. Water samples were collected for chemical and microbiological analyses. The water was similarly composed as sea water with a maximum salinity of 24.9 g/L, dominated by NaCl (15.6 g/L Cl and 7.8 g/L Na). Until the end of the tests, the water was affected by drilling mud as indicated by the high pH (8.9) and high bicarbonate concentration (359 mg/L) that both resulted from the impact of sodium carbonate (Na₂CO₃) additives. The high amount of dissolved organic matter (>?58 mg/L) and its molecular-weight distribution pattern indicated that residues of cellulose, an ingredient of the drilling mud, were still present at the end of the tests. Clear evidence of this contamination gave the measured uranine that was added as a tracer into the drilling mud. During fluid production, the microbial community structure and abundance changed and correlated with the content of drilling mud. Eight taxa of sulfate-reducing bacteria, key organisms in processes like bio-corrosion and bio-clogging, were identified. It can be assumed that their activity will be affected during usage of the reservoir.     

Optimization of the Sampling Technique for the Determination of Dissolved Hydrogen in Groundwater

In this study a field‐sampling technique for dissolved hydrogen (H₂) in groundwater will be presented which allows the transport of gaseous samples into the laboratory for further analysis. The method consists of transferring the headspace trapped in a gas‐sampling bulb which is continuously purged by groundwater into previously evacuated vials using a gas‐tight syringe. Three transfer steps with preceding evacuation of the vial led to a H₂‐recovery of 100 % in laboratory experiments. The method has been applied to determine H₂ concentrations in an aquifer contaminated with chlorinated solvents. Tests concerning the effect of different pumping techniques on H₂ concentrations revealed that most reliable values were obtained with a bladder pump, while an electrically driven submersible pump generated considerable amounts of hydrogen due to electrochemical interactions with the sampled water. Concentrations of dissolved hydrogen in field and laboratory samples were about two orders of magnitude higher when sampling was performed with the electrically driven submersible pump compared to sampling with the bladder pump and a peristaltic pump. Lab experiments with a Plexiglas reservoir to produce H₂‐enriched water were used to study the effect of two tubing materials (PVC, polyamide) on H₂ losses. PVC tubing turned out to allow transfer of H₂‐enriched water over 25 m without significant losses, while PA‐tubing was not suitable for sampling of H₂.     

Rigid unit modes in the molecular dynamics simulation of quartz and the incommensurate phase transition

A molecular dynamics simulation of quartz at different temperatures both in the a and in the phase has been conducted. The - phase transition could be observed. A phonon analysis of the -phase confirms and rounds out in a quantitative way the origin of the incommensurate (ic) modulated phase. In particular it traces the optic soft mode at becoming (to a good approximation) a so-called rigid unit mode (RUM) at q0, and elucidates its coupling to the transverse acoustic mode which precipitates the incommensurate transition. This success underpins and illuminates the concept of RUMs and their role in structural phase transitions.     

The introduction of neural network system and its applications in rock engineering

The neural network system has been developing very fast recently. It has been widely used in many industries such as automation, nuclear power plant, chemical industry, etc. Neural network systems have a great advantage in dealing with problems in which many factors influence the process and result, and the understanding of this process is poor, and there are experimental data or field data. In rock engineering, many problems are of this nature. In this paper, a brief introduction to neural network systems is given. Problems such as what is a neural network, how it works and what kind of advantages it has are discussed. After this, several applications in rock engineering, made by us, are presented. Case 1 is ore boundary delineation. In this case, the rock are divided into three classes, i.e.: (1) waste rock; (2) semi-ore; and (3) ore for mining purposes. The neural network system built can judge whether it is ore, semi-ore or waste rock along the borehole according its corresponding geophysical logging data, such as gamma-ray, gamma-gamma, neutron and resistivity. Case 2 is aggregate quality prediction. In this case, the quality parameters: (1) impact value; (2) abrasion value I; and (3) abrasion value II are predicted by using a neural network system based on density, point load, content of quarts and content of brittle minerals. Case 3 is rock indentation depth prediction. In this case, the rock indentation depth under indentation load is predicted by the established neural network system based on the indentation load on rock, indenter type and rock mechanical properties, such as uniaxial compressive strength, Young's modulus. Poisson's ratio, critical energy release rate and density. In all these cases, the neural network systems have been applied successfully. The testing results are satisfactory and better than the existing techniques.     

Kinematic analysis and analogue modelling of the Passeier- and Jaufen faults: implications for crustal indentation in the Eastern Alps

Crustal deformation in front of an indenter is often affected by the indenter’s geometry, rheology, and motion path. In this context, the kinematics of the Jaufen- and Passeier faults have been studied by carrying out paleostress analysis in combination with crustal-scale analogue modelling to infer (1) their relationship during indentation of the Adriatic plate and (2) their sensitivity in terms of fault kinematics to the geometry and motion path of Adria. The field study reveals mylonites along the Jaufen fault, which formed under lower greenschist facies conditions and is associated with top-to-the-west/northwest shear with a northern block down component. In addition, a brittle reactivation of the Jaufen shear zone under NNW–SSE to NW–SE compressional and ENE–WSW tensional stress conditions was deduced from paleostress analysis. The inferred shortening direction is consistent with fission track ages portraying Neogene exhumation of the Meran-Mauls basement south of the fault. Along the Passeier fault, deformation was only brittle to semi-ductile and paleostress tensors record that the fault was subjected to E–W extension along its northern segment varying into NW–SE compression and sinistral transpression along its southern segment. In the performed analogue experiments, a rigid, triangular shaped indenter was pushed into a sand pile resulting in the formation of a Passeier-like fault sprouting from the indenter’s tip. These kinds of north-trending tip faults formed in all experiments with shortening directions towards the NW, N, or NE. Consequently, we argue that the formation of the Passeier fault strongly corresponds to the outline of the Adriatic indenter and was only little affected by the indenter’s motion path due to induced strain partitioning in front of the different indenter segments. The associated fault kinematics along the Passeier fault including both E–W extension and NNW to NW shortening, however, is most consistent with a northward advancing Adriatic indenter.