Climate-Years in the True Prairie: Temporal Fluctuations of Ecologically Critical Climate Conditions

The True Prairie (TP) is a large area in the central U.S. which was a tall grass prairie for thousands of years prior to its conversion to crop land. An analysis of climatically controlling factors indicated that the tall grass prairie is favored by the ratio of warm season precipitation to potential evapotranspiration exceeding 0.75 (west boundary), cold season precipitation less than 38 cm (south boundary), high cold-season frequency of thunderstorms (north boundary), and high drought frequencies (entire region). A `climate-year' approach was used to assess the temporal and spatial variability of these conditions during the 20thcentury. This analysis did not reveal any long-term trends in most climate-year types, although there were significant decadal-scale fluctuations, most notably a high frequency of drought-type years in the 1930s and 1950s. However, the well-documented upward trend in precipitation is manifested in an increasing frequency of one climate-year type characterized by above normal cold season precipitation in the southern border area of the TP.     

Transposed Climates for Study of Water Supply Variability on the Laurentian Great Lakes

Hydrological models of the Great Lakes basin were used to study the sensitivity of Great Lakes water supplies to climate warming by driving them with meteorological data from four U.S. climate zones that were transposed to the basin. Widely different existing climates were selected for transposition in order to identify thresholds of change where major impacts on water supplies begin to occur and whether there are non-linear responses in the system. The climate zones each consist of 43 years of daily temperature and precipitation data for 1,000 or more stations and daily evaporation-related variables (temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud cover) for approximately 20–35 stations. A key characteristic of these selected climates was much larger variability in inter-annual precipitation than currently experienced over the Great Lakes. Climate data were adjusted to simulate lake effects; however, a comparison of hydrologic results with and without lake effects showed that there was only minor effects on water supplies.     

Evaluation of Weather Catastrophe Data for Use in Climate Change Investigations

A 1950–1994 data set of major weather losses developed by the property insurance industry was examined to assess its potential utility in climate change research and use in assessing the relevance of recent extreme losses in the United States. A process for adjusting these historical storm losses to ever-changing factors including dollar values, amount of insurance coverage per area, and the sensitivity of society to damaging storms was developed by the industry. Analysis of the temporal frequency and losses of these adjusted weather catastrophes revealed differences according to the amount of loss. Temporal changes since 1975 in the catastrophes causing $35 to $100 million in loss were strongly related to changes in U.S. population, whereas catastrophes that created insured losses greater than $100 million appear related to both shifting weather conditions and to regional population changes. This evaluation revealed that the industry's catastrophe adjustment technique did not adequately allow for changes in various demographic and social factors affecting damage; however, results suggest use of population values for normalizing the adjusted catastrophe database to allow meaningful studies of their temporal variability.     

A Rare Long Record of Deep Soil Temperatures Defines Temporal Temperature Changes and an Urban Heat Island

A long-term set of deep soil temperature data collected over a 64-year period beginning in 1889 in a rural Illinois area provide a rare opportunity to assess the natural shifts in temperatures in a pristine environment without any urban or instrument bias. Temperatures from 1901 to 1951 increased 0.4 °C, and this was 0.2 °C less than nearby values from two high quality surface temperature data sets that supposedly are without any influence of urban heat islands, shifts in station locations or instrumentation, or other changes with time. Comparison of the soil values with surface air temperatures from a nearby weather station in a growing university community revealed a heat island effect of 0.6 °C. This value is larger than the adjustment based on population that has been recommended to eliminate the urban bias in long-term temperature trends in the U.S. Collectively, the results suggest that additional efforts may be needed to eliminate the urban influence on air temperatures, beyond techniques that simply use population as the basis. Population is only an approximation of urban factors affecting surface temperatures, and the heat island influences inherent in the values from weather stations in smaller communities which have been used as control, or data assumed to be unaffected by their urban environment in the adjustment procedures, have not been adequately accounted for.     

Temporal and spatial distributions of wind storm damages in the United States

High wind caused catastrophes, storms causing property losses >$1 million, during 1952–2006 averaged 3.1 events per year in the U.S. The average loss per event was $90 million, and the annual average loss was $354 million. High wind catastrophes were most frequent in the Northeast, Central, and West Coast areas. Storm losses on the West Coast were the nation’s highest, averaging $115 million per event. High wind losses are the nation’s only form of severe weather that maximizes on the West Coast. High wind catastrophes were most frequent in winter, and were infrequent in the late spring and early fall seasons. Loss areas were frequently confined to one state. Losses in the western U.S. and nationally have increased during the 1952–2006 period, both with statistically significant upward trends.     

Effects of summer precipitation on urban transportation

Potential shifts in summer precipitation due to an enhanced greenhouse effect indicate the possibility of more rain days and heavier rains in the Midwest, and this study assessed the effects of such changes on transportation in Chicago using a 3-year period of data. Traffic accidents in the metropolitan area doubled on rainy days, with 30% more accidents in more densely populated urban areas than in suburban-rural areas. During rain events accident severity (number of injuries) was 55% higher in suburban and rural areas where less dense but higher speed traffic flows exist than in the city, however. Rain days during dry months produced more accidents and injuries than during normal or wet months. Three times as many accidents occurred during heavy rain periods (> 12.8 mm) as during nonrain conditions. Rain had a negligible influence on weekday traffic volume on busy highways but there was a 9% decrease in traffic volume on rainy weekends. A 3–5% decrease in ridership of public transportation occurred on rainy days, with most decreases during midday. Nationally, 27% of all fatality-producing aircraft accidents occurred during rainy weather conditions, as did 57% of the 30-min flight delays at Chicago's O'Hare Airport. Results suggest that given continued transportation use patterns extend into the future, a future climate with more summer rain days, somewhat higher rain rates, and more storms would mean more total vehicular accidents, more total injuries in vehicular accidents, decreased ridership on public transportation systems, and more aircraft accidents and delays. A drier climate would likely experience fewer moderate to heavy rain events but results show that rain events during drier conditions produced a greater frequency of accidents and injuries per event than during wetter conditions.     

The journey from safe yield to sustainability

Safe-yield concepts historically focused attention on the economic and legal aspects of ground water development. Sustainability concerns have brought environmental aspects more to the forefront and have resulted in a more integrated outlook. Water resources sustainability is not a purely scientific concept, but rather a perspective that can frame scientific analysis. The evolving concept of sustainability presents a challenge to hydrologists to translate complex, and sometimes vague, socioeconomic and political questions into technical questions that can be quantified systematically. Hydrologists can contribute to sustainable water resources management by presenting the longer-term implications of ground water development as an integral part of their analyses.