Discrimination of induced seismicity by full moment tensor inversion and decomposition

Human activities, including operations related to mining and reservoir exploitation, may induce seismicity and pose a risk for population and infrastructures. While different observations are commonly used to assess the origin of earthquakes, there is a lack of rules and methods for the discrimination between natural and induced seismicity. The inversion and decomposition of the full moment tensor and the observation of relevant deviation from a pure double couple (DC) model may be an indicator for induced seismicity. We establish here a common procedure to analyse a set of natural and induced events of similar magnitude, which occurred in Germany and neighbouring regions. The procedure is based on an inversion method and on a consistent velocity model and recording network. Induced seismicity is recorded during different mining and/or reservoir exploitations. Moment tensors are inverted using a multi-step inversion approach. This method, which was successfully applied in previous studies at regional and teleseismic distances, is further developed here to account for full moment tensor analysis. We first find a best DC solution and then perform a full moment tensor inversion, fitting full waveforms amplitude spectra at regional distances. The moment tensor solution is decomposed into DC, compensated linear vector dipole and isotropic terms. The discrimination problem is then investigated through the evaluation of distributions of non-DC source components for natural and induced data sets. Results illustrate the potential of the inversion and discrimination approach. Additional detailed analyses are carried out for the two most significant induced earthquakes, and rupture models are compared with the full moment tensor solutions.     

Current Behaviour and Dynamics of the Lowermost Italian Glacier (Montasio Occidentale,Julian Alps)

Smaller glaciers (<0.5 km²) react quickly to environmental changes and typically show a large scatter in their individual response. Accounting for these ice bodies is essential for assessing regional glacier change, given their high number and contribution to the total loss of glacier area in mountain regions. However, studying small glaciers using traditional techniques may be difficult or not feasible, and assessing their current activity and dynamics may be problematic. In this paper, we present an integrated approach for characterizing the current behaviour of a small, avalanche‐fed glacier at low altitude in the Italian Alps, combining geomorphological, geophysical and high‐resolution geodetic surveying with a terrestrial laser scanner. The glacier is still active and shows a detectable mass transfer from the accumulation area to the lower ablation area, which is covered by a thick debris mantle. The glacier owes its existence to the local topo‐climatic conditions, ensured by high rock walls which enhance accumulation by delivering avalanche snow and reduce ablation by providing topographic shading and regulating the debris budget of the glacier catchment. In the last several years the glacier has displayed peculiar behaviour compared with most glaciers of the European Alps, being close to equilibrium conditions in spite of warm ablation seasons. Proportionally small relative changes have also occurred since the Little Ice Age maximum. Compared with the majority of other Alpine glaciers, we infer for this glacier a lower sensitivity to air temperature and a higher sensitivity to precipitation, associated with important feedback from increasing debris cover during unfavourable periods.     

Toarcian–Aalenian (Early–Middle Jurassic) radiolarian fauna from the Los Molles Formation,Neuquén Basin,Argentina: Taxonomy and paleobiogeographic affinities

This paper reports the occurrence of a Toarcian–Aalenian (Early–Middle Jurassic) radiolarian fauna in the Los Molles Formation, Neuquén Basin, Argentina, as well as comments on its paleobiogeographic affinities. The micropaleontologic analysis was carried out in fine-grained rocks from a turbiditic section of the Los Molles Formation. These samples were first chemically processed using only hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), and afterward treated with acetic (CH₃COOH) and hydrofluoric (HF) acids. The first chemical procedure permitted the recovery of only few spongy spumellarians, while the second one enabled to recover more diversified radiolarian assemblages. In general, the studied fauna presents low diversity and abundance, with a strong dominance of spumellarians over nassellarians. The fauna is composed by the genera Paronaella, Homoeoparonaella, Praeconocaryomma, Archaeocenosphaera, Orbiculiformella, Praeparvicingula, and some unidentified spumellarians and nassellarians. According to paleobiogeographic models, the studied Toarcian–Aalenian fauna presents a mid to high latitude affinity. It is possible to infer from those data a bipolar distribution of some taxa, such as Praeparvicingula and probably Praeconocaryomma, between the Northern and Southern hemispheres since the Early Jurassic (Toarcian).     

Hindcast of oil-spill pollution during the Lebanon crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, July-August 2006

MOON (Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network http://www.moon-oceanforecasting.eu) provides near-real-time information on oil-spill detection (ocean color and SAR) and predictions [ocean forecasts (MFS and CYCOFOS) and oil-spill predictions (MEDSLIK)]. We employ this system to study the Lebanese oil-pollution crisis in summer 2006 and thus to assist regional and local decision makers in Europe, regionally and locally. The MEDSLIK oil-spill predictions obtained using CYCOFOS high-resolution ocean fields are compared with those obtained using lower-resolution MFS hydrodynamics, and both are validated against satellite observations. The predicted beached oil distributions along the Lebanese and Syrian coasts are compared with in situ observations.The oil-spill predictions are able to simulate the northward movement of the oil spill, with the CYCOFOS predictions being in better agreement with satellite observations. Among the free MEDSLIK parameters tested in the sensitivity experiments, the drift factor appears to be the most relevant to improve the quality of the results.     

Recent trends in seasonal and annual precipitation indices in Tuscany (Italy)

Global warming alters the hydrological cycle since a rise in temperature leads to an increase in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere at a rate of about 7 %/°C. This fact can influence the global, but also local characteristics of precipitation, such as total amount and intensity. Therefore, it is important to study changes in rainfall regime in regions with complex orography, like Tuscany, where there are strong spatial gradients in precipitation amounts. The aim of this study is to look for temporal change in precipitation from 1955 to 2007 searching for spatial differences. Daily data of 21 meteorological stations were analyzed to identify trends in seasonal and annual precipitation indices. Cluster analysis applied to principal components was applied to identify homogeneous groups of stations. A decrease in precipitation was observed at annual time scale, during winter and spring, especially in northwestern areas. Wet days highlighted a decrease in all of Tuscany, due to the same seasons. In northern Tuscany, the decrease in rainfall amount was mainly determined by a lower frequency of rainy events which in turn caused a decrease in the occurrence of extreme daily precipitation events (75th, 90th, and 95th percentile). In central-southern Tuscany, no significant changes were observed except for an increase in precipitation fraction, due to extreme events and in mean daily total amount for wet days. These results are consistent with recent findings for the Mediterranean area and confirm the usefulness of cluster analysis for the analysis of the spatial distribution of precipitation.     

Spring thermal resources for grapevine in Kőszeg (Hungary) deduced from a very long pictorial time series (1740–2009)

Since 1740 until now, the Book of Vine Branches encompasses beautiful pictorial representations of shoots and sprouts, collected every year on April 24th in the vineyards of the Hungarian town of K?szeg. A long time series (1740–2009) of sprouts phenological development coded with the BBCH scale is obtained through paintings visual inspection. Consequently, a model relating sprouts development with thermal resources accumulation is developed on the base of Wien daily air temperature series for the 1857–2009 period. Thermal resources is obtained with the Normal Heat Hours approach, a response curve method that takes into account the nonlinear response of phenological development to temperature. The model, calibrated and validated on the 1930–2009 period, shows an overestimation of thermal resources when applied to the 1857–1929, due to the more advanced phenology of that phase. Since this advance can be ascribed to genetics and management instead of more favorable thermal conditions, model outputs previous to 1930 are decreased by a constant factor. Finally, the 1740–2009 time series of grapevine spring thermal resources is obtained applying the model to the complete phenological time series. The analysis of the series highlights a first phase (1740–1780) characterized by high and stable availability of thermal resources during the 1740–1780, a second phase (1781–1820) with the lowest level of resources, a phase of intermediate availability (1821–1929) and a final present phase (1930–2009) with renewed high availability. The adopted method overcomes the lack of correlation for the post 1960 period shown by previous works.     

Unraveling the hidden origin and migration of plagioclase phenocrysts by in situ Sr isotopes: the case of final dome activity at Nisyros volcano,Greece

This contribution reports a detailed study on in situ Sr isotope analyses, along with textural and compositional characteristics, of plagioclase phenocrysts occurring in the rhyodacitic dome-lavas and associated mafic enclaves, erupted during the last magmatic activity at Nisyros volcano (Greece). Dome-lavas and enclaves have a paragenesis dominated by plagioclase. We recognize five different types of plagioclase based on their specific textures and composition. Dome-lava plagioclases (Type-1) are mainly large (1–5 mm), subhedral, clear, and poorly zoned crystals with low An content (An_25–35). The plagioclase phenocrysts (Type-4 and Type-5) and groundmass microlites crystallizing in the enclaves, and found in dome-lavas as xenocrysts, have high An content (An_75–95). In both dome-lavas and enclaves, two other types of plagioclase do also occur: (1) plagioclase phenocrysts with size and core composition similar to those of Type-1 having a dusty sieve zone (DSZ) at the rims (Type-2); (2) plagioclases with a DSZ affecting the entire crystal but a thin rim (Type-3). The drilled plagioclases have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr negatively correlated with their An content. Low An cores of Type-1 and Type-2 have quite homogeneous ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.7044–0.7046), whose values are more radiogenic than their host magmas (0.70403–0.70408) and similar to those of the previous Upper Pumice (UP) rhyolite magma (0.70438–0.70456). The DSZs of Type-2 and Type-3 show lower and scattered ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70397–0.70426) with intermediate and variable An content. High An cores of Type-4 and Type-5 have the least radiogenic Sr isotope composition (0.70379) in equilibrium with that measured in the enclaves (0.70384–0.70389). We demonstrate that Type-1 plagioclase crystallizes in the previous UP rhyolitic magmas representing the silica-rich magma from which the dome-lava melts derived by open system evolutionary processes (e.g., mixing, mingling, and crystal migration), caused by successive refilling of mafic enclave-forming magma. The Type-2 plagioclase derives from entrainment of Type-1 into the still molten enclave magma. The DSZs originated in response to the interaction between the low An plagioclase and the enclave mafic melt in which dissolution and re-crystallization acted together as function of the interaction time. Type-1 and Type-2 plagioclases record, therefore, a long-lived timescale of events starting from their crystallization in the UP rhyolite. Instead, the different width of DSZs (Type-2 and Type-3) seems to indicate short different interaction timescales between the single crystals and the enclave melt (from few hours to some 40 days). These microanalytical data contribute to the understanding of the origin of the rhyodacitic dome-lavas at Nisyros volcano and to set robust constraints on the dynamics of mingling/mixing processes in terms of crystal exchange pathways and enclave disaggregation.     

A Simulation Method for Semicollisional Plasmas

We present a one dimensional kinetic simulation model which can be used to simulate the stationary state of a semicollisional plasma. Results of a simple simulation are presented and compared to Fokker-Planck calculations. The model is particularly well suited for the diluted solar atmosphere. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Weak lensing by galaxies in groups and clusters – I. Theoretical expectations

Three of the six southern Clube Areas that were mainly observed at the European Southern Observatory and whose principal results are given in Paper XVI are marginally observable from Haute-Provence. Additional measurements obtained on several observing runs there enabled orbits to be determined (in most cases rather poorly, owing to the paucity of data) for 30 of the newly discovered spectroscopic-binary systems; they are presented in this paper. One object, HD 33978, seems to be of such significance that special efforts have been made, largely by Drs J. Andersen and H. Lindgren, to obtain additional radial-velocity measurements. That system is shown to be a double-lined binary with a period of only 10.67 d despite one of its components being a late-type giant. The giant star has a projected rotational velocity of almost 40 km s⁻¹; it could be expected to exhibit RS CVn-type photometric variations, which have not yet been observed, in addition to the 'ellipsoidal variation', discovered by Hipparcos , which occasioned its designation as VV Lep.