Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data

Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse‐gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario employed.     

QUEST on DASI: a South Pole CMB polarization experiment

QUEST on DASI is a ground-based, high-sensitivity, high-resolution (ℓ_max2500) experiment designed to map CMB polarization at 100 and 150 GHz and to measure the power spectra from E-modes, B-modes from lensing of the CMB, and B-modes from primordial gravitational waves. The experiment comprises a 2.6 m Cassegrain optical system, equipped with an array of 62 polarization-sensitive bolometers (PSBs), located at the South Pole. The instrument is designed to minimize systematic effects; features include differencing of pairs of orthogonal PSBs within a single feed, a rotatable achromatic waveplate, and axisymmetric rotatable optics. In addition the South Pole location allows both repeatable and highly controlled observations. QUEST on DASI will commence operation in early 2005.     

A review of the geodynamic setting of large-scale Late Mesozoic gold mineralization in the North China Craton: an association with lithospheric thinning

Abundant gold deposits are distributed along the margins of the North China Craton (NCC). Occurring throughout the Precambrian basement and located in or proximal to Mesozoic granitoids, these deposits show a consistent spatial–temporal association with Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous magmatism and are characterized by quartz lode or disseminated styles of mineralization with extensive alteration of wall rock. Their ages are mainly Early Cretaceous (130–110 Ma) and constrain a very short period of metallogenesis. Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic tracers of ores, minerals and associated rocks indicate that gold and associated metals mainly were derived from multi-sources, i.e., the wall rocks (Precambrian basement and Mesozoic granites) and associated mafic rocks.Previous studies, including high surface heat flow, uplift and later basin development, slow seismic wave speeds in the upper mantle, and a change in the character of mantle xenoliths sampled by Paleozoic to Cenozoic magmas, have been used to suggest that ancient, cratonic mantle lithosphere was removed from the base of the NCC some time after the Ordovician, and replaced by younger, less refractory lithospheric mantle. The geochemistry and isotopic compositions of the mafic rocks associated with gold mineralization (130–110 Ma) indicate that they were derived from an ancient enriched lithospheric mantle source; whereas, the mafic dikes and volcanic rocks younger than 110 Ma were derived from a relatively depleted mantle source, i.e., asthenospheric mantle. According to their age and sources, relation to magmatism and geodynamic framework, the gold deposits were formed during lithospheric thinning. The removal of lithospheric mantle and the upwelling of new asthenospheric mantle induced partial melting and dehydration of the lithospheric mantle and lower crust due to an increase of temperature. The fluids derived from the lower crust were mixed with magmatic and meteoric waters, and resulted in the deposition of gold and associated metals.     

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).     

The inner Galaxy resolved at IJK using DENIS data

We present the analysis of three-colour optical/near-infrared images, in IJK , taken for the DEep Near Infrared Southern Sky Survey (DENIS) project. The region considered covers 17.4 deg² and lies within <5°, b <1.°5. The adopted methods for deriving photometry and astrometry in these crowded images, together with an analysis of the deficiencies nevertheless remaining, are presented. The numbers of objects extracted in I , J and K are 748 000, 851 000 and 659 000 respectively, to magnitude limits of 17, 15 and 13. Eighty per cent completeness levels typically fall at magnitudes 16, 13 and 10 respectively, fainter by about 2 mag than the usual DENIS limits as a result of the crowded nature of these fields. A simple model to describe the disc contribution to the number counts is constructed, and parameters for the dust layer are derived. We find that a formal fit of parameters for the dust plane, from these data in limited directions, gives a scalelength and scaleheight of 3.4±1.0 kpc and 40±5 pc respectively, and a solar position 14.0±2.5 pc below the plane. This latter value is likely to be affected by localized dust asymmetries. We convolve a detailed model of the systematic and random errors in the photometry with a simple model of the Galactic disc and dust distribution to simulate expected colourmagnitude diagrams. These are in good agreement with the observed diagrams, allowing us to isolate those stars from the inner disc and bulge. After correcting for local dust-induced asymmetries, we find evidence for longitude-dependent asymmetries in the distant J and K sources, consistent with the general predictions of some Galactic bar models. We consider complementary L -band observations in the companion paper.     

Estimates for the luminosity function of galaxies and its evolution

A new method is presented to obtain a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimate of the luminosity function and the selection function of a flux-limited redshift survey. The method parametrizes the selection function as a series of stepwise power laws and allows possible evolution of the luminosity function. We also propose a new technique to estimate the rate of evolution of the luminosity function. This is based on a minimization of the observed large-scale power with respect to the evolutionary model. We use an ensemble of mock surveys extracted from an N -body simulation to verify the power of this method. We apply our estimators to the 1.2-Jy survey of IRAS galaxies. We find a far-infrared luminosity function in good agreement with previously published results and evidence for rather strong evolution. If the comoving number density of IRAS galaxies is assumed to scale ∝ (1 +  z ) ^P , we estimate P  = 4.3 ± 1.4.     

The detection of binary companions to subdwarf B stars

Intermediate dispersion spectroscopy of a sample of 40 hot subdwarf B stars between 5500 and 9000Å has been obtained. The sample includes a large fraction of targets which have been studied photometrically. Seven targets show strong lines arising from the infrared Ca  ii triplet, the unequivocal signature of a cool companion. The positive Ca  ii identifications include known photometric binaries and new targets; all are associated with a photometric red excess. Assuming a canonical value for the subdwarf luminosity, all of the detected companions are overluminous compared with the main sequence. The detection procedure indicates an improved and more secure method for the measurement of the binary frequency of hot subdwarfs.     

The initial responses of hot liquid water released under low atmospheric pressures: Experimental insights

Experiments have been performed to simulate the shallow ascent and surface release of water and brines under low atmospheric pressure. Atmospheric pressure was treated as an independent variable and water temperature and vapor pressure were examined as a function of total pressure variation down to low pressures. The physical and thermal responses of water to reducing pressure were monitored with pressure transducers, temperature sensors and visible imaging. Data were obtained for pure water and for solutions with dissolved NaCl or CO₂. The experiments showed the pressure conditions under which the water remained liquid, underwent a rapid phase change to the gas state by boiling, and then solidified because of removal of latent heat. Liquid water is removed from phase equilibrium by decompression. Solid, liquid and gaseous water are present simultaneously, and not at the 611 Pa triple point, because dynamic interactions between the phases maintain unstable temperature gradients. After phase changes stop, the system reverts to equilibrium with its surroundings. Surface and shallow subsurface pressure conditions were simulated for Mars and the icy satellites of the outer Solar System. Freezing by evaporation in the absence of wind on Mars is shown to be unlikely for pure water at pressures greater than c. 670 Pa, and for saline solutions at pressures greater than c. 610 Pa. The physical nature of ice that forms depends on the salt content. Ice formed from saline water at pressures less than c. 610 Pa could be similar to terrestrial sea ice. Ice formed from pure water at pressures less than c. 100 Pa develops a low thermal conductivity and a ‘honeycomb’ structure created by sublimation. This ice could have a density as low as c. 450 kg m⁻³ and a thermal conductivity as low as 1.6 W m⁻¹ K⁻¹, and is highly reflective, more akin to snow than the clear ice from which it grew. The physical properties of ice formed from either pure or saline water at low pressures will act to reduce the surface temperature, and hence rate of sublimation, thereby prolonging the lifespan of any liquid water beneath.     

The Monitor project: JW 380 – a 0.26-, 0.15-M⊙, pre-main-sequence eclipsing binary in the Orion nebula cluster

We present a general recipe for constructing N -body realizations of galaxies comprising near spherical and disc components. First, an exact spherical distribution function for the spheroids (halo and bulge) is determined, such that it is in equilibrium with the gravitational monopole of the disc components. Second, an N -body realization of this model is adapted to the full disc potential by growing the latter adiabatically from its monopole. Finally, the disc is sampled with particles drawn from an appropriate distribution function, avoiding local-Maxwellian approximations. We performed test simulations and find that the halo and bulge radial density profile very closely match their target model, while they become slightly oblate due to the added disc gravity. Our findings suggest that vertical thickening of the initially thin disc is caused predominantly by spiral and bar instabilities, which also result in a radial re-distribution of matter, rather than scattering off interloping massive halo particles.