Impact of El Niño events and climate regime shift on living resources in the western North Pacific

Features of El Niño events and their biological impacts in the western North Pacific are reviewed, focusing on interactions between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon. Impacts of El Niño on the climate in the Far East become evident as ‘cool summers and warm winters’. Effects of climate regime shift on ENSO activities, western boundary currents and upper-ocean stratification, as well as their biological consequences are summarized. These have been:

1. In the western equatorial Pacific, an eastward extension of the warm pool associated with El Niño events induces an eastward shift of main fishing grounds of skip jack and big eye tunas.

2. The surface salinity front in the North Equatorial Current region retreats southward, associated with El Niño events. This leads to a southward shift of the spawning ground of Japanese eel, which is responsible for a reduction in the transport of the larval eels to the Kuroshio and Japanese coastal region, causing poor recruitment.

3. Intensification of winter cooling and vertical mixing associated with La Niña (El Niño) events in the northern subtropical region of the western (central) North Pacific reduces surface chlorophyll concentration levels and larval feeding condition for both Japanese sardines and the autumn cohort of Neon squid during winter–early spring. The semi-decadal scale calm winter that occurred during the early 1970s triggered the first sharp increase of sardine stock around Japan.

4. A remarkable weakening of southward intrusion of the Oyashio off the east coast of Japan during 1988–91, resulted in a decrease in chlorophyll concentrations and mesozooplankton biomass in late spring–early summer of the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition region. Changes occurred in the dominant species of small pelagic fish, through successive recruitment failures of Japanese sardine.

Analysis of Determinants for an Enhanced and Long-lasting Coastal Convective System by Means of a Case Study(26 July 2011)

A precipitation system developed continuously along the western coastline of the Korean Peninsula and created considerable precipitation both along the coast and inland on 26 July 2011. In this study, the causes for this nearshore convective system are investigated from observations and the results of model experiments. Three-dimensional radar fields clearly show that a change of wind at the surface border played an important role in the development of the nearshore convection system. The simulation results, which are very similar to the observations, show that the surface border generated and maintained the convergence zone. The roughness change enhanced the convergence, and the interaction between the deepening cold pool and downward flow maintained the convergence zone. The surface mechanical discontinuity affected by the roughness change between sea and land formed the convergence (gradient of wind stress),which induced momentum transfer to the upper layer. The cold pool created a steep gradient of potential temperature and provided the reason for the propagated convergence zone with the downward flow. The maximum value of the surface change factor, which comprises the influencing factors for the long-lasting convective system, reflects the enhancement of the system at the coast.     

Introduction of geospatial perspective to the ecology of fish-habitat relationships in Indonesian coral reefs: A remote sensing approach

Coral reef ecosystems worldwide are now being harmed by various stresses accompanying the degradation of fish habitats and thus knowledge of fish-habitat relationships is urgently required. Because conventional research methods were not practical for this purpose due to the lack of a geospatial perspective, we attempted to develop a research method integrating visual fish observation with a seabed habitat map and to expand knowledge to a two-dimensional scale. WorldView-2 satellite imagery of Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia obtained in September 2012 was analyzed and classified into four typical substrates: live coral, dead coral, seagrass and sand. Overall classification accuracy of this map was 81.3% and considered precise enough for subsequent analyses. Three sub-areas (CC: continuous coral reef, BC: boundary of coral reef and FC: few live coral zone) around reef slopes were extracted from the map. Visual transect surveys for several fish species were conducted within each sub-area in June 2013. As a result, Mean density (Ind. / 300 m²) of Chaetodon octofasciatus, known as an obligate feeder of corals, was significantly higher at BC than at the others (p < 0.05), implying that this species’ density is strongly influenced by spatial configuration of its habitat, like the “edge effect.” This indicates that future conservation procedures for coral reef fishes should consider not only coral cover but also its spatial configuration. The present study also indicates that the introduction of a geospatial perspective derived from remote sensing has great potential to progress conventional ecological studies on coral reef fishes.

     

Generation of hydrogen ions and hydrogen gas in quartz–water crushing experiments: an example of chemical processes in active faults

To understand the fundamental chemical processes of fluid–rock interaction during the pulverization of quartz grains in fault zones, quartz grains were crushed within pure water. The crushing experiments were performed batch style using a shaking apparatus. The crushing process induced a decrease in pH and an increase in hydrogen gas with increased shaking duration. The amount of hydrogen ions generated was five times larger than that of the hydrogen gas, which was consistent with the amount of Si radicals estimated from electron spin resonance measurements by Hochstrasser and Antonini (1972). This indicates that hydrogen gas was generated by consuming most of the Si radicals. The generation of hydrogen ions was most likely related to the presence of silanols on the newly formed mineral surface, implying a change of proton activities in the fluid after pulverization of quartz.     

The Dependence of Constitutive Properties on Temperature and Effective Normal Stress in Seismogenic Environments

— We have evaluated how the parameters prescribing the slip-dependent constitutive law are affected by temperature and effective normal stress, by conducting the triaxial fracture experiments on Tsukuba-granite samples in seismogenic environments, which correspond to a depth range to 15 km. The normalized critical slip displacement D _c almost remains constant below 300^oC (insensitive to both temperature and effective normal stress σ _n ^eff); D _c increases with increasing temperature above 300 °C, and the rate of D _c increase with temperature tends to be largest at higher σ _n ^eff. The breakdown stress drop Δτ _b for the granite at constant σ _n ^eff is roughly 80 MPa below 300 °C, and does not depend on σ _n ^eff. Above 300 °C, Δτ _b decreases gradually with increasing temperature, and the rate of Δτ _b reduction with temperature increases at higher σ _n ^eff. The peak shear strength τ _p increases nearly linearly with increasing σ _n ^eff below 300 °C. However, τ _p becomes lower above 300 °C, deviating from the linear relation extrapolated from below 300 °C. This is consistent with the onset of crystal plastic deformation mechanisms of Tsukuba granite.     

Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.     

Color measurements of volcanic ash deposits from three different styles of summit activity at Sakurajima volcano,Japan: Conduit processes recorded in color of volcanic ash

We measured quantitatively colors of volcanic ash deposits erupted from three different styles of summit activity (Strombolian activity, Vulcanian explosions and continuous ash venting activity) at Sakurajima volcano from 1974 to 1985. Colors of Strombolian ash samples have larger yellow components of their visible spectra (b^? values) than those of explosion and continuous venting ash samples. Colors of explosion ash samples show larger variation in both red and yellow components of their visible spectra (a^? and b^? values, respectively), while colors of continuous venting ash samples are in the narrow ranges within colors of explosion ash samples. Colors of components with lower densities than 3.1 g/cm³ (groundmass and phenocrystic plagioclase) obtained by magnetic and heavy liquid separation methods are similar to the unseparated bulk ash samples. This result suggests that the color variations of ash deposits are mainly originated from the particles composed of groundmass. The particles can be classified into three different types of particles with different vesicularity and crystallinity (vesicular particle [VP], dense particle with vesicles [DPV] and dense particle without vesicles [DP]). Analytical results of component proportions, chemical compositions of groundmass glasses, ferrous iron contents and surface ferric materials show that (1) VP has larger yellow components of the visible spectrum (b^? values) and high ferrous iron content, and is less crystallized than the DP and DPV, (2) DP has larger red and yellow components of its visible spectrum (a^? and b^? values, respectively) and involves ferric materials on the surfaces produced by oxidation process, and (3) DPV has smaller red and yellow components of its visible spectrum (a^? and b^? values, respectively) and involves less ferric materials on the ash surfaces. Color differences of ash deposits from three different activity styles can be explained by the different mixing ratios of VP, DPV and DP. During the Strombolian activity, the VP is a main component in the ash, which is formed from relatively less degassed and crystallized magma. In the Vulcanian explosion and continuous ash venting activity, the proportions of DPV and DP in ash are larger than that in the Strombolian activity. The highly crystallized DP may correspond to a vent cap, and DPV to a magma below the cap. The color measurements of ash deposits provide information on the pre-eruptive processes at the shallower levels of a conduit.