Numerical forecasting of the time interval between successive M8 earthquakes along the Nankai Trough,southwest Japan,using ocean bottom cable network data

One possible approach to estimating the time interval between large-scale Tōnankai (Tōkai) and Nankai earthquakes on the Japan arc is sequential assimilation of crustal deformation data. We conducted numerical modeling of sequential assimilation using surface deformation calculated from earthquake generation cycle simulations along the Nankai Trough. To account for observation noise, we used measured ocean bottom pressure gauge data, excluding tidal modulation, from a station on the ocean bottom cable network Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Kumano basin. We used sequential importance sampling as our data assimilation method. We found that as the amount of data increased, the estimated time interval between the Tōnankai and Nankai earthquakes approached the “true” observed interval. In addition, the noise in the pressure gauge data was sufficiently small that simulated crustal deformation patterns could be distinguished for different time intervals.     

Double injection events of mafic magma into supersolidus Yucheon granites to produce two types of mafic enclaves in the Cretaceous Gyeongsang Basin,SE Korea

Petrographic and geochemical features of the Cretaceous Yucheon granites and their mafic microgranular/magmatic enclaves (MMEs), SE Korea, reveal that the MMEs originated from magma mixing. Mesoscopic and microscopic features indicate that mechanical mixing operated heterogeneously to produce the MMEs with a wide range of sizes and textures. Chemical compositions of amphibole, biotite, and plagioclase rims of both the MMEs and host granites are almost identical, indicating that chemical homogenization took place to some extent after the mechanical mixing. Plagioclase cores, however, have various compositions depending on the host rocks and/or sampling locations, suggesting their sluggish re-equilibration. The MMEs are divided into Type A (low TiO₂, very fine-grained, chilled margins) and Type B (high TiO₂, fine- to medium-grained, no chilled margins). The lower TiO₂ MMEs cooled more rapidly and interacted with granitic magma for a shorter period of time than the higher TiO₂ MMEs. Additionally, the former are less enriched in HREEs than the latter. Zoned plagioclase has two zones of increased An content. These features are indicative of double injection events of mafic magma. A previous model explains the magma mixing as resulting from the generation of a slab window due to Kula-Pacific ridge subduction. The model cannot, however, explain the eastward younging of the granites in Korea, necessitating a new, more elaborate model of Cretaceous geodynamics and magmatism in East Asia.     

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NanoSIMS analysis of organic carbon from the Tissint Martian meteorite: Evidence for the past existence of subsurface organic‐bearing fluids on Mars

Two petrographic settings of carbonaceous components, mainly filling open fractures and occasionally enclosed in shock‐melt veins, were found in the recently fallen Tissint Martian meteorite. The presence in shock‐melt veins and the deuterium enrichments (δD up to +1183‰) of these components clearly indicate a pristine Martian origin. The carbonaceous components are kerogen‐like, based on micro‐Raman spectra and multielemental ratios, and were probably deposited from fluids in shock‐induced fractures in the parent rock of Tissint. After precipitation of the organic matter, the rock experienced another severe shock event, producing the melt veins that encapsulated a part of the organic matter. The C isotopic compositions of the organic matter (δ¹³C = ?12.8 to ?33.1‰) are significantly lighter than Martian atmospheric CO₂ and carbonate, providing a tantalizing hint for a possible biotic process. Alternatively, the organic matter could be derived from carbonaceous chondrites, as insoluble organic matter from the latter has similar chemical and isotopic compositions. The presence of organic‐rich fluids that infiltrated rocks near the surface of Mars has significant implications for the study of Martian paleoenvironment and perhaps to search for possible ancient biological activities on Mars.     

Marine meiobenthic and nematode community structure in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong upon recovery from sewage pollution

Sediment quality, meiofaunal and nematode communities were monitored across six time points at two inside-harbour and three outside-harbour sites over a three-year period in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, after the implementation of a sewage treatment project. Twenty-one meiofaunal groups comprising mainly free-living nematodes and harpacticoid copepods and 188 species of free-living nematodes were identified. The outside-harbour area had a more diverse and significantly different nematode community structure as compared to that in the inside-harbour area. Such spatial difference was highly correlated with the total Kjeldahl nitrogen content of the sediments. Over the study period, there was no significant improvement in sediment quality within the harbour. However, in the last sampling time, an increase in meiofaunal abundance and a closer similarity in nematode composition between one of the inside- and outside-harbour sites suggested signs of recovery of the meiofauna as a response to abatement of sewage pollution.     

人工神经网络在地质学判别分析中的应用

将现代人工神经网络方法应用于地质学的判别分析，通过实例计算表明，无论是对于两组判别分析还是多组判别分析，人工神经网络方法都是切实可行的。     

Spatio-temporal changes of marine macrobenthic community in sub-tropical waters upon recovery from eutrophication. I. Sediment quality and community structure

A two-year study was conducted in the vicinity of a harbour in sub-tropical Hong Kong, to examine the progress of improvement in sediment quality and recovery of macrobenthic community upon cessation of organic pollution caused by sewage discharge. Median sediment particle diameter (Mdphi) and levels of total organic carbon (TOC), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), ammonia-nitrogen (NH(3)-N) and total phosphorus (TP), as well as macrobenthic species composition and abundance were determined bi-monthly at three inside-harbour and two outside-harbour locations. At the two inside-harbour locations, significantly higher levels of TOC, TKN, NH(3)-N and TP in sediments were observed than the outside-harbour locations. However, no significant temporal change of nutrient levels was detected at all sampling locations during the two-year study, except a significant decrease in TKN and NH(3)-N levels at one outside-harbour location and a decline in NH(3)-N content at another outside-harbour location. Spatially, the highest in mean total species number, individual number, species diversity H' and lowest evenness J was found at one outside-harbour location, whereas the other four locations had relatively similar values. H' was negatively correlated with TOC, TKN, NH(3)-N and TP content in sediments while J was positively correlated with MDphi. Across the study period, the patterns of macrobenthic community were significantly different among all samplings and that the spatial difference of benthic community was best correlated with MDphi, TOC, TKN and water depth. A weak sign of recovery in macrobenthic community structure was detected at inside-harbour locations, with replacement of opportunistic by ubiquitous species over the two-year study. The slow recovery of macrobenthic community was related to sediment characteristics. Results of a larval settlement bioassay using the polychaete Capitella sp. I also demonstrated that the inside-harbour sediments were still unfavourable for colonization and larval settlement of species sensitive to pollution. The slow biodegradation of the organic pollutants and continuous presence of heavy metals in the sediment may hinder settlement and colonization of benthic animals. However, increases of H' and J were observed in a longer time scale when comparing the present data with those obtained four years ago. This suggested that a detectable recovery of benthic community in the harbour may take at least three years and a complete recovery may even take longer duration.