不同 AMDAR资料同化时间窗对台风“摩羯”预报影响研究

2018年第14号台风“摩羯”对山东造成了大范围暴雨和大风天气,基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其Hybrid-3DVAR混合同化预报系统,对Hybrid-3DVAR不同集合协方差比例和不同航空气象数据转发（aircraft meteorological data relay,以下简称AMDAR）资料同化时间窗对台风“摩羯”预报的影响进行了数值研究。结果表明：加大集合协方差比例对台风“摩羯”路径预报有较大影响和改进;当全部取来自集合体的流依赖误差协方差时,预报的台风路径最好,降水预报也最接近实况;AMDAR资料同化对于台风路径和降水预报也有正的改进作用,但加大集合协方差比例到100%时对台风路径预报影响更大;不同资料同化时间窗会影响同化的AMDAR资料数量,从而影响台风降水精细化预报;45 min同化时间窗的要素预报误差最小,对台风造成的强降水精细特征预报最接近实况;不同资料同化时间窗主要影响台风降水预报落区分布,对台风路径预报影响相对较小。     

西藏朱诺斑岩型Cu-Mo矿床成矿斑岩金红石成因及找矿指示意义

西藏冈底斯成矿带南缘西段新发现的朱诺铜矿床是具有大型规模的斑岩铜钼矿床。金红石是斑岩铜矿床中最典型的副矿物之一,对其成分和结构特征的研究能反演成矿流体演化过程并确定斑岩铜矿的主矿体。在详细的野外地质观察的基础上,对钾化带成矿斑岩(黑云花岗闪长岩)中金红石的研究表明:金红石主要与磁铁矿(Ⅰ类)、赤铁矿共生(Ⅲ类),常形成固溶体分离结构并分布在黑云母裂隙及附近;其次呈板状(长10~80μm,宽3~10μm)、颗粒状(粒径10~40μm)、不规则状独立分布在石英硫化物脉中(Ⅱ类)。Ⅰ类金红石是由钛磁铁矿在富S条件下反应形成的;Ⅲ类金红石由钛铁矿在富氧条件下反应形成的;Ⅱ类金红石是由含Ti的热液结晶沉淀而来的。成矿斑岩全岩中TiO_2的含量为0.66%,为金红石的形成提供了丰富的物源。成矿斑岩金红石中的电子探针分析结果显示,其成分除含有约94%的TiO_2外,还含有V_2O_3,Nb_2O_5,FeO,WO_3,CaO,SiO_2,Al_2O_3,ZrO_2,几乎不含或很少含MgO和MgO。金红石中V_2O_3范围为0.20%~2.39%,平均为0.49%,Nb2O5的含量范围为0.20%~4.63%,平均1.25%,WO_3和FeO的平均含量分别为1.92%和1.81%,且有约0.05%的ZrO_2异常。利用金红石找矿方法开展朱诺矿床外围找矿时,首先必须考虑金红石中V_2O_3的含量(0.2%,Ⅱ类金红石0.5%),在此基础上考虑Nb的含量(0.2%,乙类金红石2.6%),同时考虑W,Fe偏高,Zr异常的特点。对Ⅱ类金红石还需要额外考虑其粒径大于10μm。     

新疆哈密侏罗纪几种成煤植物

对新疆哈密三道岭露天煤矿中林罗统西山窑组煤岩中几种成煤植物的角质层、丝炭化进行了研究，其中包括四种角质层：本内苏铁类、银杏类（Ⅰ）（可能属于Ｐｈｏｅｎｉｃｏｐｓｉｓ）、银杏类（Ⅱ）（可能属于Ｇｉｎｋｇｏ）和松柏类；一种半丝炭化的木材（属于松柏类的罗汉松木属Ｐｏｄｏｃａｒｐｏｘｙｌｏｎ）。在这几种成煤植物中，银杏类和松柏类植物较为丰富，而苏铁类则较贫乏，说明前两者是西山窑组主要的成煤植物，同时也反映出成煤时期的古气侯较为温凉。     

雾与能见度数值预报诊断SW方案和FSL方案改进的研究及评估

为了提高雾与能见度的预报水平,对业务上常用的两种能见度诊断方案,即Stoelinga and Warner(SW)方案与Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL)方案的改进进行预报试验,SW方案基于Gultepe方案考虑了液态水粒子数浓度对能见度的影响,FSL改进方案中利用了递减平均法对公式中用到的温度与露点温度进行订正,并用其重新计算公式中的相对湿度。基于山东省气象科学研究所逐时更新循环(hourly update cycle,HUC)业务模式输出结果,从2015—2016年选取10次雾天气过程,并详细分析了2015年11月13—14日这次雾天气过程的预报结果,比较了改进前后各方案对雾与能见度的预报效果,结果显示:在模式预报的雨水含量占总液态含水量比例较大的预报时效,改进后的SW方案对雾与能见度预报效果优于原始方案,在模式预报液态含水量接近0的预报时效,改进前后的SW方案对雾与能见度的预报效果相当;利用订正的温度与露点温度重新计算相对湿度,其平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)降低明显的预报时段,改进后的FSL方案对雾与能见度的预报效果大大提升。将两种改进后的方案相融合并进行预报试验,结果显示,综合对能见度与雾的预报效果,Combined Visibility(CVIS)方案要优于其他两种改进方案。     

Carbon cycle variability in tropical Atlantic across two Early Eocene hyperthermals

Early Eocene hyperthermals are geologically short-lived global warming events and represent fundamental perturbations to the global carbon cycle and the Earth’s ecosystem due to massive additions of isotopically light carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system.They serve as ancient analogs for understanding how the oceanic carbonate system and surface-ocean ecosystem would respond to ongoing and future climate change.Here,we present a continuous carbonate record across the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2(ETM2 or H1,ca.54.1 Ma)and H2(ca.54 Ma)events from an expanded section at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1258 in tropical Atlantic.The abundant calcareous nannofossils and moderate carbonate content throughout the studied interval suggest this record was deposited above the calcite compensation depth(CCD),but below the lysocline and under the influence of terrestrial dilution.An Earth system model cGENIE is used to simulate the carbon cycle dynamics across the ETM2 and H2 to offer insights on the mechanism of the rapid warming and subsequent recovery in climate and ecosystem.The model suggests moderate changes in ocean pH(0.1–0.2 unit)for the two scenarios,biogenic methane from a rechargeable methane capacitor and organic matter oxidation from thawing of the permafrost.These pH changes are consistent with a recent independent pH estimate across the ETM2 using boron isotopes.The carbon emission flux during the ETM2 is at least an order of magnitude smaller than that during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum(PETM)(0.015–0.05 Pg C yr^-1vs.0.3–1.7 Pg C yr^-1).The comparable pre-and post-event carbonate contents suggest the lysocline did not over deepen following the ETM2 at this tropical Atlantic site,indicating spatial heterogeneity in the carbonate system due to strong dilution influence from terrestrial weathering and riverine discharge at Site 1258.     

Geochemical Tracing of Ore-forming Material Sources of Carlin-type Gold Deposits in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi Triangle Area --A Case Study of the Application of the Combined Silicon Isotopes Geochemistry and Siliceous Cathodoluminescence Analysis

This paper deals with characteristics of silicon isotope compositions and siliceous cathodolumines-cence of host rocks, ores and hydrothermal silicified quartz of the Carlin-type ore deposits in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi triangle area. The study shows that primary silicified quartz is nonluminescent but quartz in host rocks andsecondary silicified quartz are luminescent by the action of cathode rays. Correspondingly, silicon isotope composi-tions of host rocks, ores and hydrothermal quartz veins are clearly distinguished. In strata from the Middle Triassic tothe "Dachang" host bed, δ~(30)Si of the host rocks ranges from 0.0‰-0.3‰, while that of primary ore-forming silici-fied fluids from -0.1‰ to -0.4‰, in the Upper Permian and Lower Carboniferous strata and Indosinian diabasehost beds, δ~(30)Si of the host rocks is from -0.1‰ to -0.2‰ and that of the primary silicified quartz veins from 0.3‰-0.5‰. This pattern demonstrates the following geochemical mineralization process: primary ore-forming sili-ceous fluids migrated upwards quickly along the main passages of deep-seated faults from mantle to crust and en-tered secondary faults where gold deposits were eventually formed as a result of permeation and replacement of thesiliceous ore-forming fluids into different ore-bearing strata. This gives important evidence for the fact that ore-forming fluids of this type of gold deposits were mainly derived from upper mantle differentiation and shows goodprospects for deep gold deposits and geochemical background for large and superlarge gold deposits.     

应用地气、X荧光、氡气测量方法识别金矿含矿及无矿构造——以川西北阿西金矿和石棉田湾金矿为例

寻找构造带对于矿产勘查具有积极意义，对构造的含矿性进行判别，尤其对于野外地表露头无矿化显示及隐伏构造的含矿性更为关键。为了对构造的含矿性进行快速识别，采用X荧光测量方法、α怀测氡方法、地气测量方法等现场方法及不同方法技术的配合进行了金矿含矿与无矿构造的识别研究。川西北阿西金矿及石棉田湾金矿的试验结果表明，上述方法技术及其组合可以有效地判别金矿含矿和无矿构造。     

The Central Granites-Gneiss-Migmatite Belt (CGGMB) of Madagascar: the Eastern Neoproterozoic Suture of the East African Orogen

The northeastern part of Madagascar is characterized by Archaean to early Proterozoic rocks composed principally of Archaean granite and greenstone/amphibolite as well as reworked migmatite with subordinate Proterozoic paragneisses. The southern part is mostly occupied by Proterozoic rocks, composed mostly of Meso to Neo-Proterozoic and less metamorphic metasediments (Itremo Group) in the northwest, para- and ortho-gneisses in most other areas, with minor granitic gneisses with some Archaean components in the southeast. The north-northwest trending Central Granite-Gneiss-Migmatite Belt (CGGMB) is situated at the western margin of the Archaean-early Proterozoic terrain. The CGGMB is composed of granite, gneiss and migmatite with distinct lithologies and structures. They are: i) many types of granites including alkaline to mildly alkaline granites, and calc-alkaline granites; ii) batholitic granites, migmatitic granites and granite dyke swarm, iii) eclogite, and iv) the Ankazobe-Antananarivo-Fianarantsoa Virgation.

The CGGMB was formed by the collision of the palaeo-Dharwar Craton to the east and the East African Orogen to the west at ca. 820-720 Ma and suffered indentation by a part of the western part of the East African Orogen at ca. 530 Ma that produced the Ankazobe-Antananarivo-Fianarantsoa Virgation at the centre of the CGGMB. Thus, the CGGMB is proposed to be the continuation of the eastern suture between the palaeo Dharwar Craton and the East African Orogen, and carries the main feature of the Pan-African collisional event in Madagascar.     

南水北调进京后怀柔应急水源地地下水资源涵养研究

怀柔应急水源地作为北京最大的应急地下水源地,在连续10多年的干旱期间,为保障城市供水安全做出了巨大贡献。文章在总结怀柔应急水源地10年供水历程的基础上,评价了连续干旱和应急开采条件下区域水资源的变化;结合南水北调进京的契机,从"资源人工回补"和供水系统"热备运行"两方面开展当地地下水资源涵养研究工作,以保障怀柔应急水源地可持续"应急供水"能力,为应对南水北调供水过程中的突发事件,做好水资源战备储备。     

大别山超高压变质带表壳岩地球化学特征及启示

大别山南部出露较多的变质表壳岩,主要由片麻岩、片岩、长英质粒状岩石、大理岩、斜长角闪岩类等组成,经历了超高压、高压变质作用。通过岩石学、岩石化学、地球化学的研究,对其形成时代、原岩建造、构造背景等作了较深入的分析,认为其成岩时代可能属于早中元古代,原岩为一套碎屑岩,碳酸盐岩夹火山岩建造,构造背景应为与大陆岛弧有关的活动大陆边缘环境。这些研究成果为探讨大别造山带的形成环境、演化、榴辉岩等超高压变质带的形成、折返机制等提供了较充分的地质依据。