Risk analysis for clustered check dams due to heavy rainfall

Check dams are commonly constructed around the world for alleviating soil erosion and preventing sedimentation of downstream rivers and reservoirs.Check dams are more vulnerable to failure due to their less stringent flood control standards compared to other dams.Determining the critical precipitation that will result in overtopping of a dam is a useful approach to assessing the risk of failure on a probabilistic basis and for providing early warning in case of an emergency.However,many check dams are built in groups,spreading in several tributaries in cascade forms,comprising a complex network.Determining the critical precipitation for dam overtopping requires a knowledge of its upstream dams on whether they survived or were overtopped during the same storm,while these upstream dams in turn need the information for their upstream dams.The current paper presents an approach of decomposing the dam cluster into(1)the heading dam,(2)border dams,and(3)intermediate dams.The algorithm begins with the border dams that have no upstream dams and proceeds with upgraded maps without the previous border dams until all the dams have been checked.It is believed that this approach is applicable for small-scale check dam systems where the time lag of flood routing can be neglected.As a pilot study,the current paper presents the analytical results for the Wangmaogou Check Dam System that has 22 dams connected in series and parallel.The algorithm clearly identified 7 surviving dams,with the remaining ones being overtopped for a storm of 179.6 mm in 12 h,which is associated with a return period of one in 200 years.     

Analyzing interactions between risk factors for ice disaster in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River based on grey rough DEMATEL method

Natural Hazards - The ice disaster risk in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River in China is affected by many factors, and the various risk factors are not independent with each other but present...     

中更新世转型时期南海北部上层水体结构演化特征——ODP1146站浮游有孔虫稳定同位素记录

文章以南海北部ODP1146站沉积物岩芯为研究材料,利用浮游有孔虫次表层水种Pulleniatina obliquiloculata壳体的氧、碳稳定同位素,结合该站位浮游及底栖有孔虫氧碳同位素数据,分析中更新世以来南海北部上层水体结构的演化。1.2 Ma以来ODP1146站P.obliquiloculata壳体δ^18O的变化可分3个阶段:1)1.2~0.9 Ma,冰期-间冰期变化幅度较小、主导周期为41 ka斜率周期;2)0.9~0.6 Ma,冰期旋回变化幅度逐渐增强、100 ka偏心率周期开始强化;3)0.6 Ma以来,冰期旋回呈现稳定且幅度较大的100 ka周期变化。0.9 Ma以来南海北部上层海水δ^18O的冰期旋回变幅增强,可能反映东亚冬季风在0.9 Ma之后显著强化。其中,表层水体δ^18O只在冰期变幅增强,P.obliquiloculata所反映的次表层水体δ^18O的变化幅度在冰期和间冰期都显著增强。约0.9 Ma浮游和底栖有孔虫δ^18O的100 ka周期几乎同时显现;但在0.9~0.6 Ma时期P.obliquiloculata的δ^18O偏心率周期更为显著、斜率周期的强度也更高。因此,冰期旋回周期转型及幅度变化两方面的证据共同反映温跃层结构演化在南海北部中更新世转型(MPT)气候转变过程中的特殊性。1.2 Ma以来ODP1146站P.obliquiloculata的δ^13C在0.02 Ma、0.49 Ma和0.99 Ma左右呈明显的碳重值,同时表层种-次表层种之间的δ^13C差值减小到近于0,可以解读为碳重值事件期间南海北部生产力相对减弱。     

生物基可降解聚乳酸(PLA)沙障对沙丘表层沉积物粒度特征的影响

以吉兰泰盐湖北部流沙区铺设8 a的不同规格聚乳酸（PLA）沙障内沉积物为研究对象,利用激光衍射技术分析了沙丘表层0~3 cm沉积物粒度组成,计算并分析平均粒径、标准偏差等粒度参数,探讨了影响障内沉积物相对粗细的关键组分,分析PLA沙障的防沙效益。结果表明：PLA沙障内沉积物以细沙、中沙、极细沙为主。中沙、极细沙、细沙是障内沉积物的关键组分。PLA沙障的阻滞作用使得中沙、粗沙含量百分比升高,细颗粒含量百分比降低,障内沙粒分选性逐渐变差,峰态偏离正态分布,向负偏方向发展,频率分布曲线分布范围变宽,累积频率曲线变缓,表层颗粒组成趋于粗化。1 m×1 m规格PLA沙障内均以积沙为主;沙丘迎风坡和背风坡的2 m×2 m、3 m×3 m沙障内均为积沙状态,丘顶则为风蚀状态。综合考虑沙障铺设成本和防护效果,得出研究区域内2 m×2 m规格PLA沙障整体防沙效益最佳。     

夯扩挤密水泥土桩复合地基的应用研究

根据水泥土和夯扩挤密施工法的特点,结合工程实例,对夯扩挤密水泥土桩在地基处理设计与施工进行了一些探讨和研究,阐明了利用夯扩挤密水泥土桩进行地基处理是安全可行、经济合理的一种型式,以及设计与施工中应注意的几个问题,并在高层住宅中进行了尝试,取得了较好的效果。     

青藏高原东北缘及周边地区基于程函方程的面波层析成像

利用"中国地震科学台阵探测"在南北地震带北段布设的670套宽频带地震台站记录到的面波资料,使用新近发展的程函方程面波层析成像方法,获得了青藏高原东北缘及周边地区12~60 s周期范围比以往成像结果具有更高分辨率的瑞利面波相速度分布图像.青藏高原东北缘的祁连褶皱系西段、秦岭褶皱系西段和松潘一甘孜褶皱系,在16~60s周期范围内均显示出明显的低速异常分布,表明该地区的地壳力学强度较低,在强烈的构造应力作用下易发生形变.与西段不同,祁连褶皱系东段和秦岭褶皱系中段的相速度分布特征揭示,其中下地壳的速度明显高于高原内部区域.鄂尔多斯块体整体上表现为稳定块体具有的高速特征,但其西部边缘在中上地壳的速度比块体中部地区偏低,且存在一定的不均匀性.鄂尔多斯块体西北缘的临河断陷盆地和西缘的银川断陷盆地,在较短的周期范围内(12~20 s)表现为局部低速特征,但与银川断陷盆地不同,临河断陷盆地的低速特征可一直延续至60 s周期以上,表明该盆地下方地壳及上地幔速度明显偏低,可能与深部热作用有关.阿拉善块体与其北部地区的速度差异主要表现在中上地壳,这一现象值得今后进一步探讨.基于程函方程面波层析成像方法给出了青藏高原东北缘及周边地区高分辨率的成像结果,揭示了以往面波层析成像难以获得的深部细节特征,为该地区的深部构造研究提供了新的信息.     

富营养化湖泊蓝藻-芦苇碎屑堆积分解过程及其潜在的共代谢效应

为探究富营养化浅水湖泊所富集的有机物对湖泊碳循环和水质的影响,本研究构建微宇宙系统,模拟蓝藻和芦苇碎屑单独分解及混合分解过程.通过测定各组上覆水营养盐浓度、有机质含量及结构的变化,揭示富营养化湖泊藻草残体混合分解过程中养分和有机碳的释放特征.结果表明,在实验0～88 h内,在添加相同的碳源条件下,蓝藻和芦苇混合处理组总碳(TC)释放量显著高于理论值,表明藻草碎屑混合分解存在共代谢效应.在培养初期,沉积物通过共代谢效应对水质产生了较大的影响,加速向水体中释放氮、磷物质.相较单独的植物分解,混合处理组中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)的最大释放量分别提高了13.49%和26.84%;通过三维荧光光谱表征的类富里酸荧光强度变化也表明:较芦苇处理组,混合处理组中芦苇的分解速率更快.在培养开始后,各处理组均快速转变为厌氧状态,TC、TN、TP浓度随时间变化总体上呈先快速上升再逐渐平缓的趋势,分别在第228、108和324小时达最大值(372.4±2.98)、(138.45±2.97)和(7.95±1.11) mg/L.细菌特异性脂肪酸含量变化表明,将蓝藻碎屑添加到芦苇碎屑中,会增加芦苇碎屑中细菌的丰度,从而提高分解速率,激发共代谢效应.在全球气候变暖的背景下,随着富营养化湖泊藻类暴发频次增加,共代谢效应可能还会进一步加强,对富营养化湖泊水质将会持续产生影响.     

云南测震台网地震监测能力分析

2018年1月云南省测震台网示范工程20个新增测震台建设完成,选取原有48个台以及新增20个台连续48小时数据记录,基于近震震级公式,计算并网前后云南省测震台网的地震监测能力,对比测震台增加前后的地震监测能力,发现:云南省地震监测能力由ML 2.2提升到ML 1.6,局部地区由ML1.4提升到ML0.8。     

Submersion simulation in a typical debris flow watershed of Jianzhuangchuan catchment,Loess Plateau

Debris flow is one of the most serious and frequent geological disasters that occur in the Loess Plateau. The outbreak of a debris flow is sudden, ferocious, swift, and destructive. The characteristics and mechanism of debris flow were explored in this study via survey, numerical simulation, and simulation analysis in a Loess Plateau area (Huangling County, Shaanxi Province, China). Numerical models and formulas corresponding to the occurrence and movement mechanism were established based on the HEC-RAS, HEC-GeoRAS, and SWAT results. The range of debris flow deposition was determined through capturing the debris flow free surface. A hydrological model and critical rainfall threshold were determined in order to provide technical support for debris flow forecasting in the Loess Plateau. The results suggest that 10-year floods do not submerge any portion of the basin. One village area was affected by the 100-year flood (total area of 0.648 km²) while four villages areas were submerged by the 1000-year flood (total area of 1.39 km²). The method presented here may provide a reliable scientific basis for mitigating loss due to debris flow hazards.     

基于生态足迹的宁夏回族自治区可持续发展评价

对可持续发展能力的定量评估是进行可持续发展研究的关键,基于生态足迹计算的发展能力指标是较好的评价指标之一。采用生态足迹模型,首次对宁夏1991-2010年长时间序列生态足迹进行了计算,对生态赤字的构成进行了分析;修正了Ulanowicz的发展能力模型,创新性的在计算公式中将万元GDP生态赤字（盈余）因子引入,对宁夏生态经济系统的可持续发展能力进行了评价。结果表明：1991-2010年宁夏人均生态赤字高于全球0.4 hm2,和全国0.68 hm2的水平相比,1991-2010年宁夏生态赤字扩大5倍,20 a间系统稳定性逐渐下降,但近年有向良性化方向好转的趋势。在2010年资源利用效率最高;生态经济系统可持续发展能力持续上升,2010年最大,为2.993,是20 a前的16倍多。提高生态足迹多样性、提高资源利用效益,是宁夏提高发展能力的途径;且通过政策手段对能耗进行控制,宁夏建设可持续发展经济是可期待的。