Computer-simulation models of scoria cone degradation

Long-term erosional modifications of the relatively simple morphology of scoria (‘cinder') cones are ideally suited for study by field and computer-simulation methods. A series of temporally-distinct cones in the San Francisco and Springerville volcanic fields of Arizona provides the foundation for documenting the degradational evolution of scoria cones in a semi-arid climate. Progressive changes due to erosion are illustrated by the systematic decrease with increasing age of various morphometric parameters, including scoria cone height, cone height/width ratio (H_co/W_co), crater depth/width ratio, and slope angle. For example, Holocene–latest Pleistocene cones in the San Francisco field have a mean H_co/W_co value of 0.178±0.041, a mean maximum slope angle of 29.7±4.2°, and a mean average slope angle of 26.4±7.3°, whereas the group of Pliocene cones have values of 0.077±0.024, 20.5±5.8°, and 8.7±2.7°, respectively. Comparative morphology of scoria cones is a potentially useful dating tool for mapping volcanic fields.In order to better understand the degradational modifications of these volcanic landforms, we have developed a numerical approach to simulate the surficial processes responsible for the erosion of a typical scoria cone. The simulation algorithm can apply either a linear diffusion-equation model or a model with a nonlinear transport law. Using a finite-difference formulation, the simulation operates upon a three-dimensional scoria cone input as a matrix of elevation values. Utilizing both field and model results, the correlation between changing H_co/W_co value, cone age, and computer time step was expressed graphically to derive comprehensive values of the transport or diffusion coefficient (D_f) for both volcanic fields. For the San Francisco volcanic field, D_f had a calculated value of 21.4 m²/kyr for the linear model and 5.3 m/kyr for the nonlinear model, while for the Springerville volcanic field D_f had a calculated value of 24.4 m²/kyr for the linear model and 6.3 m/kyr for the nonlinear model.     

Evidence of type II and type IV solar radio emission from a common flare-induced shock wave

A solar radio outburst is described in which a moving type IV burst is observed to break up into several components. A close association is found to exist between this source and a type II burst which occurred during the same period and detailed analysis indicates that both bursts were excited by a common shock wave ejected from the flare region.     

Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous event. This process is sensitive to non-stationarity in fire and rainfall regime parameters and therefore suitable for evaluating the effects of climate change and strategic fire management on hydro-geomorphic hazards from burnt areas. In this paper we ask the question, “What is the first-order effect of climate change on the interaction between fire disturbance and storms?” The aim is to isolate the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on the frequency of extreme erosion events. Fire disturbance and storms are represented as independent stochastic processes with properties of spatial extent, temporal duration, and frequency of occurrence, and used in a germ–grain model to quantify the annual area affected by extreme erosion events due to the intersection of fire disturbance and storms. The model indicates that the frequency of extreme erosion events will increase as a result of climate change, although regions with frequent storms were most sensitive.     

Hazard map of El Chichón volcano,Chiapas, México: Constraints posed by eruptive history and computer simulations

El Chichón volcano consists of a 2-km wide Somma crater compound cone 0.2 Ma old with peripheral domes with a central crater reactivated several times during the Holocene. The most recent eruption at El Chichón occurred from March 28 to April 4, 1982, resulting in the worst volcanic disaster during historical times in Mexico, killing more than 2000 people and destroying nine towns and small communities. The volcanic hazard map of El Chichón is based on detailed field work that documented twelve eruptions during the last 8000 years, and computer simulations. To validate the results, computer simulations were first performed over pre-1982 topography mimicking the extent of the actual deposits produced and afterwards run over post-1982 topography. These eruptions have produced pyroclastic fall, surge, flow and lahar deposits. Pyroclastic flows have different volumes and Heim coefficients varying from 0.2 (pumice flows), to 0.15 (block-and-ash flows) and 0.10 (ash flows). Simulations using FLOW3D and TITAN2D indicate that pumice flows and block-and-ash flows can fill the moat area and follow main ravines up to distances of ca. 3 km from the crater, with no effect on populations around the volcano. On the other hand, more mobile ash flows related to column-collapse events can reach up to 4 km from the vent, but will always follow the same paths and still not affect surrounding populations. The energy-cone model was used to simulate the outflow of pyroclastic surges based on the 1982 event (H/L = 0.1 and 0.2), and shows that surges may reach some towns around the volcano.     

A simple two‐parameter model for scaling hillslope surface runoff

The objective of this research was to develop and parameterise a physically justified yet low‐parameter model to quantify observed changes in surface runoff ratios with hillslope length. The approach starts with the assumption that a unit of rainfall‐excess runoff generated at a point is a fraction β of precipitation P (m) which travels some variable distance down a slope before reinfiltrating, depending on the local rainfall, climate, soils, etc. If this random distance travelled Y is represented by a distribution, then a survival function will describe the probability of this unit of runoff travelling further than some distance x (m). The total amount of per unit width runoff Q (m²) flowing across the lower boundary of a slope of length λ (m) may be considered the sum of all the proportions of the units of rainfall excess runoff integrated from the lower boundary x = 0 to the upper boundary x = λ of the slope. Using these assumptions we derive a model Q(λ) = βPμλ/(μ + λ), (μ > 0, 0 ≤ β ≤ 1, λ ≥ 0) that describes the change in surface runoff with slope length, where μ (m) is the mean of the random variable Y. Dividing both sides of this equation by Pλ yields a simple two‐parameter equation for the dimensionless hillslope runoff ratio Q_h(λ) = βμ/(μ + λ). The model was parameterised with new rainfall and runoff data collected from three replicates of bounded 2 m wide plots of four different lengths (0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 m) for 2 years from a forested SE Australian site, and with 32 slope length–runoff data sets from 12 other published studies undertaken between 1934 and 2010. Using the parameterised model resulted in a Nash and Sutcliffe statistic between observed and predicted runoff ratio (for all data sets combined) of 0.93, compared with –2.1 when the runoff ratio was fixed at the value measured from the shortest plot. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geophysical modeling of the northern Appalachian Brompton-Cameron, Central Maine, and Avalon terranes under the New Jersey Coastal Plain

A regional terrane map of the New Jersey Coastal Plain basement was constructed using seismic, drilling, gravity and magnetic data. The Brompton-Cameron and Central Maine terranes were coalesced as one volcanic island arc terrane before obducting onto Laurentian, Grenville age, continental crust in the Taconian orogeny [Rankin, D.W., 1994. Continental margin of the eastern United States: past and present. In: Speed, R.C., (Ed.), Phanerozoic Evolution of North American Continent-Ocean Transitions. DNAG Continent-Ocean Transect Volume. Geological Society of America, Boulder, Colorado, pp. 129–218]. Volcanic island-arc rocks of the Avalon terrane are in contact with Central Maine terrane rocks in southern Connecticut where the latter are overthrust onto the Brompton-Cameron terrane, which is thrust over Laurentian basement. Similarities of these allochthonous island arc terranes (Brompton-Cameron, Central Maine, Avalon) in lithology, fauna and age suggest that they are faulted segments of the margin of one major late Precambrian to early Paleozoic, high latitude peri-Gondwana island arc designated as “Avalonia”, which collided with Laurentia in the early to middle Paleozoic. The Brompton Cameron, Central Maine, and Avalon terranes are projected as the basement under the eastern New Jersey Coastal Plain based on drill core samples of metamorphic rocks of active margin/magmatic arc origin. A seismic reflection profile across the New York Bight traces the gentle dipping (approximately 20 degrees) Cameron's Line Taconian suture southeast beneath allochthonous Avalon and other terranes to a 4 sec TWTT depth (approximately 9 km) where the Avalonian rocks are over Laurentian crust. Gentle up-plunge (approximately 5 degrees) projections to the southwest bring the Laurentian Grenville age basement and the drift-stage early Paleozoic cover rocks to windows in Burlington Co. at approximately 1 km depth and Cape May Co. at approximately 2 km depths. The antiformal Shellburne Falls and Chester domes and Chain Lakes-Pelham dome-Bronson Hill structural trends, and the synformal Connecticut Valley-Gaspe structural trend can be traced southwest into the New Jersey Coastal Plain basement. A Mesozoic rift basin, the “Sandy Hook basin”, and associated eastern boundary fault is identified, based upon gravity modeling, in the vicinity of Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The thickness of the rift-basin sedimentary rocks contained within the “Sandy Hook basin” is approximately 4.7 km, with the basin extending offshore to the east of the New Jersey coast. Gravity modeling indicates a deep rift basin and the magnetic data indicates a shallow magnetic basement caused by magnetic diabase sills and/or basalt flows contained within the rift-basin sedimentary rocks. The igneous sills and/or flows may be the eastward continuation of the Watchung and Palisades bodies.     

The structure of the middle corona from observations at 80 and 160 MHz

Maps of the brightness distribution of the ‘quiet Sun’ at 80 and 160 MHz reveal the presence of features both brighter and darker than average. The ‘dark’ regions are well correlated with dark regions on UV maps; we deduce that they result from ‘coronal holes’. The ‘bright’ regions are associated with quiescent filaments and not plages or bright regions on microwave or UV maps; we deduce that they result from ‘coronal helmets’.

When coronal holes appear near the centre of the disk we can estimate the density and kinetic temperature in the holes from the radio observations. For a hole observed on 1972 July 20–21, we find T ≈ 0.8 × 10⁶ inside the hole and T ≈ 1.0 × 10⁶ in average regions outside the hole. Inside the hole the density is estimated to be about one-quarter of that in Newkirk's model of the spherically symmetric corona.

Variations in brightness at a fixed height above the limb are generally well correlated with scans at a similar height made with a K-coronameter. Occasional differences may result from streamers protruding beyond the limb from the back of the Sun. These can be seen by the K-coronameter but, because of refraction of the radio rays, not by the radio-heliograph.

     

Spatio-temporal changes in heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of 55 U.S. cities

With observed increases in global temperatures indicating changes to anomalous temperature events (ATE), few studies have considered the changes associated with both heat and cold together. This study evaluates the changes in heat waves and cold spells for 55 U.S. metropolitan areas (1948–2012). Using surface observations, thresholds of mean apparent temperature were used to define heat, extreme heat, cold, and extreme cold events. Days that exceeded the 95th temperature percentile were considered heat days. Similar values were used to define extreme heat (97.5th), cold (5th), and extreme cold (2.5th). Thresholds were calculated independently for each of the locations, incorporating spatial variability into the ATE definition. Changes in duration, seasonal timing, and frequency, all of which have been shown to be important characteristics in regard to heat and cold events, were evaluated. Significant changes in some characteristics were found. Across many locations, heat events have become more frequent, longer lasting, and earlier occurring, while cold spells have experienced an opposite trend. Since heat and cold events impact a range of ecological and bioclimatological processes, understanding the variability and changes associated with ATE remains an important aspect to consider as society prepares for future events.