三峡地区地震灾害损失预测研究

利用三峡及邻区发生的40多次历史地震资料，结合30多年来的20多次地震灾害现场考察资料，对三峡地区地震灾害损失进行了预测。结果显示：同震级的水库诱发地震的危害性比天然构造地震大，破坏性更强，但对三峡大坝不会构成危害。     

蒙古国南部曼莱苏木铜金矿区地质特征与找矿远景研究

曼莱苏木铜金矿区是蒙古国南部曼莱—曼达赫成矿带上一个新发现的铜金矿区。对曼莱苏木铜金矿区与该成矿带上的欧玉陶勒盖铜金矿床、查干苏布尔加铜钼矿床的分析对比,认为它们具有相同或相似的成矿地质特征,表明曼莱苏木铜金矿区成矿地质条件十分有利,并圈定了乌兰敖包和奥尤特两个成矿远景区。     

模拟分析揭示三峡水库成库以来的气候效应：局地和近地层，而不是区域

针对以往三峡水库气候效应数值模拟研究中,水库参数化方案简约及模拟时段未涉及成库以来高水位运行阶段等不足,在中尺度气象模式中,通过扩宽水体面积和抬升水位高度的方式对三峡水库引起的陆面参数变化进行描述,进而采用敏感性数值试验及统计分析等手段,评估了三峡水库成库以来高温干旱(2013年)和低温洪涝(2020年)年景下,关键气象要素对水库运行的响应特征。结果表明:两种典型年景下水库运行均会造成近地层气温降低(0.98～1.27℃)、相对湿度增加(3.9%～5.5%)和风速增大(0.43～0.68m/s),同时响应强度的日变化导致近地层气温和相对湿度的日较差减小、平均风速的日较差增大;尽管上述变量的变化幅度与该地区气候的自然变率相当,但水库运行对气温和相对湿度的影响范围基本限制于水库周边约2 km,垂直方向则大多低于200 m,对风速的影响范围可扩展至水库周边约12 km,垂直方向延伸至200 m左右,且响应强度均随水平距离和垂直高度的增加而显著减小。尽管数值试验放大了三峡水库的气候效应,但作为典型的河道型水库,三峡水库成库以来的不同气候年景下,水库运行产生的气候效应基本限制在近地层、局地范围内...     

The influence of wind on the water age in the tidal Rappahannock River

Wind plays an important role in regulating mixing/stratification, estuarine circulation, and transport timescale in estuaries. A three-dimensional model was used to investigate the effect of wind on transport time by using the concept of water age (WA) in the tidal Rappahannock River, a western tributary of the Chesapeake Bay, USA. The model was calibrated for water level, current, and salinity. A series of experiments regarding the effects of wind on WA was conducted under various dynamic conditions. The effect of wind on transport timescale depends strongly on the competition between the wind and buoyancy forcings, and on the pre-status of the circulation. A down-estuary wind generally decreases WA along the estuary. An up-estuary wind increases WA substantially because it changes the vertical mixing and estuarine circulation more significantly. When the buoyancy forcing increases, the up-estuary wind effect decreases whereas the down-estuary wind effect increases. A 2-day period wind pulse with a maximum speed of 15 m s⁻¹ can alter WA for 3 days; but the wind influence on WA lasts up to 40 days in the simulation. Both local and non-local wind forcings alter WA distribution. The local wind enhances vertical mixing and changes the gravitational circulation in the downstream portion of the estuary whereas it enhances transport in the freshwater portion of the estuary. Consequently, the local wind has a significant impact on WA distribution. In contrast, the non-local wind does not change the gravitational circulation significantly by imposing setup (setdown) of water level at the open boundary, resulting in a lesser impact on WA distribution.     

一次暴雨过程的动力诊断

应用常规观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2008年5月21日福建中部地区暴雨成因进行诊断分析。结果表明:此次强降水位于水汽通量散度平流项与散度项辐合配置较好区域;高层较强涡度平流促进福建中部地区上升运动;差动假相当位温平流增强大气不稳定度,促进垂直上升运动;低层水平运动锋生中心的位置和强度与未来6h降水中心位置和强度较为一致。     

区域业务模式6 h降水预报检验方案比较

对我国华东、华南、华北区域气象中心和中国气象局数值预报中心业务运行的区域模式2011年5—9月的6 h降水预报, 采用不同检验结果平均方案进行对比检验。对比结果表明:不同的检验结果平均方案基本不影响与中国气象局数值预报中心模式 (NMC-GRA) 在相同区域关于TS评分比较的相对检验结论,即当两个模式评分差距较大时,评分高的模式在两个方案中是一样的,但评分比较接近时,若有一个模式对该区大尺度降水预报较好时,则可能在新方案中有较高的TS评分,而此模式原方案评分则可能略低于局地小尺度降水预报较好的模式。但对于较少发生的强降水预报的预报偏差的评价有很大不同,当新方案的结果显示多数模式对强降水的预报偏少,原方案则可能显示偏多,说明模式对大尺度的强降水预报较实况偏少,但对小尺度局地降水的预报则可能偏多。     

乔木和灌木枝水分传导脆弱性沿降水量递增的分化

植物枝条失去50%水分传导时对应的水势(ψ50),称为枝的水分传导脆弱性。该指标是反映植物干旱适应能力的关键指标,也决定着植物沿降水梯度的分布。乔木和灌木枝水分传导脆弱性沿降水量递增的变化是否一致,有待揭示。基于已发表的文献,筛选出236种乔木、137种灌木,建立ψ50与分布地年均降水量及分布地干旱指数关系,来确认两大类植物的ψ50沿降水递增的变化的异同。结果表明:乔木和灌木的ψ50均随降水梯度、干旱指数的增加而增加,一元线性回归方程显著;ψ50与降水梯度、干旱指数回归方程的回归系数在乔木和灌木间差异不显著,但同一降水量下,乔木比灌木具有较低的ψ50值。我们认为灌木和乔木枝水分传导脆弱性对降水量和干旱指数递增具有相似的适应性。     

The Siberian High and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia

Summary The Siberian High is the most important atmospheric centre of action in Eurasia during the winter months. Here its variability and relationship with temperature and precipitation is investigated for the period 1922 to 2000. The pronounced weakening of the Siberian High during the last ∼ 20 years is its most remarkable feature. Mean temperature, averaged over middle to high latitude Asia (30° E–140° E, 30° N–70° N), is correlated with the Siberian High central intensity (SHCI) with correlation coefficient of − 0.58 (1922–1999), and for precipitation, the correlation coefficient is − 0.44 (1922–1998). Taking the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the SHCI, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), and the Southern Oscillation (SO) index into account, 72 percent of the variance in temperature can be explained for the period 1949–1997 (for precipitation the variance is 26 percent), with the AO alone explaining 30 percent of the variance, and the Siberian High contributing 24 percent. The precipitation variance explained by the Siberian High is only 9.8 percent of the total. Received January 2, 2001 Revised November 24, 2001     

论GIS广义数据源

地理信息系统 (GIS)关键要素之一是数据。将中国特有的、传统的地方志作为GIS广义数据源 ,并进行必要的分析、整理 ,将有其特有的优势