Can the faint submillimetre galaxies be explained in the Λ cold dark matter model?

We present predictions for the abundance of submillimetre galaxies (SMGs) and Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) in the Λ cold dark matter cosmology. A key feature of our model is the self-consistent calculation of the absorption and emission of radiation by dust. The new model successfully matches the LBG luminosity function, as well as reproducing the properties of the local galaxy population in the optical and infrared. The model can also explain the observed galaxy number counts at 850 μm, but only if we assume a top-heavy initial mass function for the stars formed in bursts. The predicted redshift distribution of SMGs depends relatively little on their flux over the range 1–10 mJy, with a median value of   z ≈ 2.0  at a flux of 5 mJy, in good agreement with the recent measurement by Chapman et al. The counts of SMGs are predicted to be dominated by ongoing starbursts. However, in the model these bursts are responsible for making only a few per cent of the stellar mass locked up in massive ellipticals at the present day.     

High-alumina basalts of Taupo Volcanic Zone,New Zealand

High-alumina basalt occurs at eight localities in the Taupo Volcanic Zone associated with the Okataina, Maroa and Taupo calderas. At Tarawera the basalt is associated with a series of craters aligned NNE, and at K Trig. a series of scoria cones of similar alignment. On a broader scale the eruptive centres lie on three lines probably corresponding to major faults within the graben.Petrographically the rocks are plagioclase-olivine-augite basalts with varying percentages of each mafic phenocryst. Most are fine-medium grained, but the Ongaroto basalt is coarser-grained, and has a higher modal percentage of olivine. Chemically all are high-alumina basalts. The Ongaroto basalts has lower Al₂O₃ and higher MgO, Ni and Cr, and this, together with petrographic evidence, suggests that the rock is a cumulate.All the basalts are likely to be derived from the mantle, with intrusion into the crust controlled largely by faulting.     

Rock physics analysis for time-lapse seismic at Schiehallion Field, North Sea

Rock physics analysis plays a vital role in time‐lapse seismic interpretation because it provides the link between changes in rock and fluid properties and the resulting seismic data response. In this case study of the Schiehallion Field, we discuss a number of issues that commonly arise in rock physics analyses for time‐lapse studies. We show that:

• 1 Logarithmic fits of dry bulk (K_dry) and shear (G_dry) moduli vs. effective pressure (P_eff) are superior to polynomial fits.
• 2 2D surface fits of K_dry and G_dry over porosity (φ) and effective pressure using all the core data simultaneously are more useful and accurate than separate 1D fits over φ and P_eff for each individual core.
• 3 One average set (facies) of K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) can be chosen to represent adequately the entire Schiehallion reservoir.
• 4 Saturated velocities and densities modelled by fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and the dry bulk density ρ_dry(φ) compare favourably with well‐log velocities and densities.
• 5 P‐ and S‐wave impedance values resulting from fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and ρ_dry(φ) show that the largest impedance changes occur for high porosities and low effective pressures.
• 6 Uncertainties in K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) derived for individual cores can be used to generate error surfaces for these moduli that represent bounds for quantifying uncertainties in seismic modelling or pressure–saturation inversion.

     

Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

Neutral hydrogen absorption observations of the central region of NGC 5929

We present 0.15-arcsec (25-pc) resolution MERLIN observations of neutral hydrogen absorption detected towards the nuclear region of the type 2 Seyfert galaxy NGC 5929. Absorption is detected only towards the north-eastern radio component with a column density of (6.5 ± 0.6) × 10²¹ cm⁻². Based on comparison with an HST WFPC2 continuum image, we propose that the absorption is caused by a 1.5-arcsec structure of neutral gas and dust offset 0.3 arcsec south-east of the nucleus and running NE–SW. A separate cloud of dust is apparent 1.5 arcsec to the south-west of the nucleus in the HST image. A comparison of the centroid velocity (2358 ± 5 km s⁻¹) and full width at half-maximum (43 ± 6 km s⁻¹) of the absorbing gas with previous [O  III ] observations suggests that both the neutral and ionized gas are undergoing galactic rotation towards the observer in the north-east and away from the observer in the south-west. The main structure is consistent with an inclined ring of gas and dust encircling the active galactic nucleus (AGN); alternatively it may be a bar or inner spiral arm. We do not detect neutral hydrogen absorption or dust obscuration against the radio nucleus (column density < 3.1 × 10²¹ cm⁻²) expected by a torus of neutral gas and dust in unified models of AGNs for a type 2 Seyfert galaxy.     

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.     

A latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacial history and paleoclimate reconstruction at Three Sisters and Broken Top Volcanoes, Oregon, U.S.A.

At least three sets of moraines mark distinct glacial stands since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in the Three Sisters region of the Oregon Cascade Range. The oldest stand predates 8.1 ka (defined here as post-LGM), followed by a second between ∼ 2 and 8 ka (Neoglacial) and a third from the Little Ice Age (LIA) advance of the last 300 years. The post-LGM equilibrium line altitudes were 260 ± 100 m lower than that of modern glaciers, requiring 23 ± 9% increased winter snowfall and 1.4 ± 0.5°C cooler summer temperatures than at present. The LIA advance had equilibrium line altitudes 110 ± 40 m lower than at present, implying 10 ± 4% greater winter snowfall and 0.6 ± 0.2°C cooler summer temperatures.     

Adsorption kinetics of CO2, CH4, and their equimolar mixture on coal from the Black Warrior Basin,West-Central Alabama

Laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the adsorption kinetic behavior of pure and mixed gases (CO_2, CH₄, approximately equimolar CO₂ + CH₄ mixtures, and He) on a coal sample obtained from the Black Warrior Basin at the Littleton Mine (Twin Pine Coal Company), Jefferson County, west-central Alabama. The sample was from the Mary Lee coal zone of the Pottsville Formation (Lower Pennsylvanian). Experiments with three size fractions (45–150 µm, 1–2 mm, and 5–10 mm) of crushed coal were performed at 40 °C and 35 °C over a pressure range of 1.4–6.9 MPa to simulate coalbed methane reservoir conditions in the Black Warrior Basin and provide data relevant for enhanced coalbed methane recovery operations. The following key observations were made: (1) CO₂ adsorption on both dry and water-saturated coal is much more rapid than CH₄ adsorption; (2) water saturation decreases the rates of CO₂ and CH₄ adsorption on coal surfaces, but it appears to have minimal effects on the final magnitude of CO₂ or CH₄ adsorption if the coal is not previously exposed to CO₂; (3) retention of adsorbed CO₂ on coal surfaces is significant even with extreme pressure cycling; and (4) adsorption is significantly faster for the 45–150 μm size fraction compared to the two coarser fractions.