Multi-temporal scale modeling on climatic-hydrological processes in data-scarce mountain basins of Northwest China

Previous studies showed that the climatic processes drive the streamflow of the inland river in Northwest China. However, it is difficult to quantitatively assess the climatic-hydrological processes in the ungauged mountainous basins because of the scarce data. This research developed an integrated approach for multi-temporal scale modeling the climatic-hydrological processes in data-scarce mountain basins of Northwest China by combining downscaling method (DM), backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and wavelet regression (WR). To validate the approach, we also simulated the climatic-hydrological processes at different temporal scales in a typical data-scarce mountain basin, the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. The main results are as follows: (i) the streamflow is related with regional climatic change as well as atmosphere-ocean variability, (ii) the BPANN model well simulated the nonlinear relationship between the streamflow and temperature and precipitation at the monthly temporal scale, and (iii) although the annual runoff (AR) appears to have fluctuations, there are significant correlations among AR, annual average temperature (AAT), annual precipitation (AP), and oscillation indices, which can be simulated by equations of WR at different temporal scales of years.     

A GIS-based method of risk assessment on no. 11 coal-floor water inrush from Ordovician limestone in Hancheng mining area,China

The no. 11 coal seam in the deep area of Hancheng mining area is mining in recent years, which is threatened by the water inrush from the Ordovician limestone aquifer. Coal-floor water inrush is governed by the water abundance of coal-floor aquifer, the water-resisting performance of coal-floor aquitard, and the pathway connecting the water source and the working face. To make an accuracy risk assessment of water inrush from the no. 11 coal seam floor, a GIS-based vulnerability index method (VIM) is adopted for its superior comprehensive consideration of more controlling factors, powerful spatial analysis, and intuitively display functions. This study firstly established an index system including the water pressure of the coal-floor aquifer, the unit water inflow, the thickness, the core recovery percentage, the thickness ratio of brittle rocks to ductile rocks, the thickness of effective aquitard, and the accumulated length of faults and folds, of which the former six indexes governed the water abundance of the coal-floor aquifer which was combined with the last two factors to determine the risk of coal-floor water inrush. Secondly, the thematic map of each controlling factor is established by GIS using the geological prospecting data, and the weight of each factor is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) after consulting the expert review panel. At last, a vulnerability index is obtained and used to assess the risk of coal-floor water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam. The risk of water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam of the study area was ranked to three zones: the southeastern shallow area in red color is the dangerous zone, the wide northwestern area in green color is the safe zone, and the transition area in yellow color is the moderate-risk zone. Compared with the actual water-inrush incidents, the risk assessment result was verified to achieve an accuracy of 82.35%, which is proved to be a dependable reference for the prevention and controlling of coal-floor water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam in Hancheng mining area.     

Early Cretaceous K-rich rhyolites from the Duolong Cu–Au deposit,southern Qiangtang,China: evidence for crustal growth

We report new zircon U–Pb age, Hf isotopic, and major and trace element data for rhyolites from the Duolong Ore Concentration Area of the Southern Qiangtang Terrane. Building on previous studies, we constrain the tectonic setting and propose a model to explain the geodynamics and crustal growth during regional magmatism in the Early Cretaceous. The analysed rhyolites yield laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) zircon U–Pb ages of 115 and 118 Ma. The rocks are K-rich (K₂O = 6.66–9.93 wt.%; K₂O/Na₂O = 8.2–19.7 wt.%), alkaline and peraluminous (A/CNK = 1.02–1.46), and are characterized by high SiO₂ contents (72.8–78.8 wt.%) similar to highly fractionated I-type granites. Fractionation of Fe–Ti oxides, plagioclase, hornblende, Ti-bearing phases, apatite, monazite, allanite and zircon contributed to the variations in major and trace element chemistry. High K₂O contents are likely due to partial melting of the continental crust. The samples have positive zircon εHf(t) values ranging from +7.1 to +11.2. These features, together with young zircon Hf crustal model ages of 489–721 Ma, indicate that the K-rich rhyolites were derived from juvenile lower crust with an input of a mantle-derived component. We suggest that the Early Cretaceous K-rich rhyolites formed in a continental arc setting during northward subduction of Bangong Co–Nujiang oceanic lithosphere. Basaltic magma underplating was responsible for vertical crustal growth, triggered by slab roll-back in the Duolong Ore Concentration Area in the Early Cretaceous.     

Geology of the Yap Trench: new observations from a transect near 10°N from manned submersible Jiaolong

This paper describes the petrology and geochemistry of rocks from the Yap Trench acquired by three dives of the Jiaolong research submarine. Combining the geophysical data and submersible observations, this paper describes the geomorphology, shallow structures, and sedimentology of the Yap Trench and further discusses the tectonics and activities of this region. Two obvious slope breaks are found on the landward slope, and horsts and grabens with small fault offsets are observed in the ocean-ward slope of the trench. Peridotites sampled from the Yap Trench inner wall are highly depleted subduction-related mantle residues. Volcanic rocks in the northern segment of the trench have subduction-related characteristics that Yap fore-arc rocks underwent metasomatism during Cenozoic subduction. The rocks with remarkable lithologic difference from lithospheric mantle and upper crust sampled in the break slopes suggest that the slope break area may represent a lithologic boundary or transition zone. The landward slope of the Yap Trench was removed by subduction erosion as a result of collision with the Caroline Ridge. The bending of the down-going plate caused normal faults, horsts, and grabens with little or no sediments indicating that the Caroline Ridge is subducting beneath the Yap arc along the trench even though the convergence rate is very slow.     

Club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry

Climate change caused by carbon emissions continuously threatens sustainable development. Due to China’s immense territory, there are remarkable regional differences in carbon emissions. The construction industry, which has strong internal industrial differences, further leads to carbon emission disparity in China. Policymakers should consider spatial effects and attempt to eliminate carbon emission inequality to promote the sustainable development of the construction industry and realize emission reduction targets. Based on the classic Markov chain and spatial Markov chain, this paper investigates the club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of China’s carbon intensity in the construction industry from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the provincial carbon intensity in the construction industry is characterized by “convergence clubs” during the research period, and very low-level and very high-level convergence clubs have strong stability. Moreover, the carbon intensity class transitions of provinces tend to be consistent with that of their neighbors. Furthermore, the transition of carbon intensity types is highly influenced by their regional backgrounds. The provinces with high carbon emissions have a negative influence on their neighbors, whereas the provinces with low carbon emissions have a positive influence. These analyses provide a spatial interpretation to the “club convergence” of carbon intensity.     

Volume estimation and stage division of the Mahu landslide in Sichuan Province,China

The Mahu lake, the third deepest lake in China, is located on the west bank of the Jinsha River in Leibo county, Sichuan Province. It is a dammed lake created by an old landslide on the ancient Huanglang river, a tributary on the west bank of the Jinsha River. Previous studies (Wang and Lu in J Mt Res S1:44–47, 2000) suggested that this landslide was caused by an earthquake approximately 372 ka (Middle Pleistocene), during which a few hundreds of million cubic meters of debris were deposited between 1177 and 900 m a.s.l. (above sea level), covering an area of around 15 km². Our further investigations, including geodetic survey, borehole drilling, and field reconnaissance, combining with five chronological data, have made some new discoveries at this site. First, the toe of the landslide extends from 900 m a.s.l. down to 320 m a.s.l., i.e., the local bed elevation of the contemporary Jinsha River. Second, the area of the landslide deposits is 17.3 km² with a volume of 2.38 km³, much larger than the previous estimation. Thus, it should be one of the largest known landslides in China. And the lower elevation of the landslide’s toe also rules out the possibility that it is a hanging valley on the ancient Huanglang river. Our work suggests that this landslide was created by five events according to the overlapping characteristics of the deposits and five chronological data, which are old than 52,600 years, old than 16,000 years, old than 15,500 years, 5800 years, and old than 4200 years, respectively.     

Remote sensing-based assessment of vegetation damage by a strong typhoon (Meranti) in Xiamen Island,China

Remote sensing is a cost-effective tool for assessing vegetation damage by typhoon events at various scales. Taking Xiamen Island, southeastern China, as a study case, this paper aimed to assess and analyze the vegetation damage caused by Typhoon Meranti landfalling on September 15, 2016, using two high spatial resolution remote sensing images before and after the typhoon event. Seven severely damaged vegetation regions were selected based on the classification of vegetation types and visual interpretation of the images. Regression analysis was used to correct seasonal variation of the two high-solution images before and after typhoon. The vegetation area of the whole of Xiamen Island and the selected seven regions before and after typhoon were then calculated, respectively. Two spectral vegetation indicators, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and fractional vegetation coverage (FVC), were also retrieved for the whole island and the seven regions. By comparing the difference in NDVI values before and after the typhoon of the two high spatial resolution images, we analyzed the most affected vegetation areas, as well as the most seriously damaged vegetation species. The typhoon has caused a decrease in vegetation area by 95.1 ha across the whole Xiamen Island. The mean NDVI and FVC decreased by 0.209 and 13 percentage points, respectively. While, in the seven selected severely damaged areas, the mean NDVI decreased by 0.356–0.444 and FVC decreased by 27–42 percentage points. The visual inspection showed that the tone of typhoon-damaged vegetation became darker, the patches of damaged vegetation became smaller and more fragmented, and the gap between vegetation canopies became larger. The most affected vegetation areas occurred in the southeastern hilly area, Jinshang and Hubin South Roads, as well as the Wuyuan Bay area. The most seriously damaged vegetation type is broad-leaved trees, especially the species, Acacia confusa, Delonix regia, Bauhinia variegata, Chorisia speciosa, Ficus benjamina and F. Concinna.     

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.     

Study on the Development Laws of Bed-Separation Under the Hard-Thick Magmatic Rock and its Fracture Disaster-Causing Mechanism

Based on the analysis of dynamic phenomena under the condition of high-located hard-thick (HLHT) stratum of one coal mine, along with the similar material simulation and theoretical analysis, the characteristics of bed separation development and cracks distribution under the HLHT stratum are studied. This paper proposes a discriminating method for overlying strata Three Zones considering the influence of HLHT stratum. The development laws of cracks and disaster-causing mechanism of hard-thick magmatic rock in different strata are respectively analyzed. The studies show that in line with the working face advancing direction, the height of bed separation under the magmatic rock increases in the trend of “Increase–Stability–Decrease”, and the width of bed separation increases linearly. The width of bed separation reaches the maximum before the first breaking of magmatic rock, the bed separation completely closes after the breaking. There are no obvious bed separations during the period migration of magmatic rock. Along the direction of the height of roof, the development of bed separation is characterized by bottom-up jump based on the key strata. The analyzed results of “Three zone” height obtained by the discriminate method of overlying strata Three Zones which is based on the key strata theory and the S–R instability theory are in line with the actual facts. When the hard-thick magmatic rock is in the fractured zone, large amounts of gas and water are easy to accumulate in the bed separation space and “O” ring space around the gob. The first breaking of magmatic rock may induce bed separation gas outburst and water inrush. When the hard-thick magmatic rock is in the sagging zone, the long-term stability of magmatic rock will not cause serious disasters. But with the adjacent working face mining, bed separation gas and water often become a safety hazard.     

非均匀各向异性储层地震AVAZ响应模拟及分析

基于波动理论的各向异性反射率方法能够充分考虑地震波动力学特征。对单界面理论模型、实际非均匀各向异性模型分别进行正演模拟及分析,比较Ruger理论与反射率方法模拟结果的波动力学特征。结果表明,对于界面模型两种方法均能得到相同的计算结果,但对于实际非均匀各向异性介质,基于Ruger理论的算法受时间采样率的影响,而基于波动理论的反射率方法输入实际空间域模型,计算结果不受时间采样率的限制。