3-D rheologic model of earthquake prepa-ration (III): Precursor field

Introduction Based on the elastic theory of hard inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii (1991), we developed a rheologic inclusion model to study the spatial-temporal variation of earthquake pre-cursor by using the bulk-strain field resulted from rheologic inclusion model (SONG et al, 2000). Based on the elastic inclusion theory, the analytical expressions for the viscoelastic displacement field and strain field of rheologic inclusion model are derived (SONG et al, 2003, 2004). Further-m…     

陆相沉积的天文地层研究方法简介——以井下地层为例

通过对我国大陆三十余口井的测井资料研究成果,归纳出对陆相地层进行天文地层研究的方法。介绍了所用的新的天文周期理论值、测井资料的选取及预处理方法,重点说明谱分析的数据点数的选定、不同参数(自然伽玛、自然电位和岩屑)的测井资料谱分析结果的对比,以实例说明如何选定主要优势旋回和AR值,以及FIR数字滤波器的基本性质和数字滤波结果,小波分析的特点和通过小波图进行调频的方法,并介绍了地层单位的延续时间计算和年龄确定方法。     

Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets

Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.     

人造卫星数据库管理系统中ORACLE FORMS的应用

ＯＲＡＣＬＥ ＦＯＲＭＳ是ＯＲＡＣＬＥ数据库系统应用程序重要的开发工具之一,它具有良好的窗口,模拟块以及触发器等功能,同时它作为ＯＲＡＣＬＥ大家族中的一员,与ＯＲＡＣＬＥ的其他应用工具又是分不开的。本文结合实例详细地介绍了ＯＲＡＣＬＥ ＦＯＲＭＳ在开发人造卫星数据库管理系统中的应用。     

鄂尔多斯盆地中部气田奥陶系马五1层的古岩溶作用与天然气富集

鄂尔多斯盆地中部气田的储层为奥陶系马家沟组白云岩风化壳,马五１层为其主力气层,该层可分为四个小层,沉积相为分布稳定的蒸发潮坪环境,经历了表生期和浅、深埋藏期岩溶作用,天然气主要聚集在岩溶孔洞缝中。     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY-PART I:NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY RELATED TO SST Duan Yihong;Qin Zenghao;Gu dianfeng;Li Yongping, Shanghai Typhoon Institute.Shangh

In the context of a model of tropical cyclone intensity based on an improved meso-scaleatmospheric model, numerical simulation is performed of the track and intensity variation oftropical cyclones (TC) arising from sea surface temperature (SST) variation over a specified searegion. Evidence suggests that the model is capable of modeling quite welt the track and intensityof TC: SST variation leads to an abrupt change in the cyclone intensity: the response of thecyclone to the abrupt SST change lasts 8—12 h.     

一次渤海气旋发生的初步分析

一九七五年五月四日晨开始,在河北省东部、渤海海面、辽东半岛、山东半岛、黄海北部海面先后出现9—10级西北大风。掖县、羊角沟、招远、海阳、蓬莱等地区阵风达12级,并伴有阵性降雨过程。由于风的来势很猛,使沿海部分地区的人民生命财产受到了一定程度的损失。     

危害后季稻的秋季低温预报方法

本文以农谚为线索,采用多张概率图作为综合因子,用逐步回归的方法试作了危害后季稻的秋季低温预报指标,希望通过这些指标能比较早而准确地预报出秋季低温到来的迟早,供领导部门参考,以便采取措施,避免或减轻低温带来的危害。本指标已在实际中使用四年,预报与实况均符合,取得了一定的服务效果。     

宁夏盛夏大雨和暴雨时的气流分析

一个地方降水量的大小取决于潮湿空气的向上输送。气层的湿度大,上升速度大,降水强度就大,反之降水强度小。在作暴雨预报吋,除注意大形势的特点和几种天气系统与大雨和暴雨的关系外,还需要从引起降水的水汽垂直输送条件去考虑。去年我们同兄弟省(区)协作搞的高原低气压系统的研究中,也发现当高原有低气压系统移出并引起本区     

广西天气分析

广西地处祖国南疆,属低纬地区,山丘起伏,地形复杂,天气多变,每年都有不同程度的灾害,给发展农业生产带来不利的影响。在“农业学大寨”、“工业学大庆”的运动中,我们在自治区党委的领导下,进一步明确了气候为农业服务的方向,天气预报为灾害性天气和农事活动关键性天气为主攻方向,开展气象科研,大搞业务基本建设,对广西的主要灾