采矿区地层移动GPS动态监测数据的小波分析

地下煤炭资源的开采会引起岩层和地表移动。为研究开采引起的地形变规律，用小波理论对兖煤集团东滩煤矿的GPS动态变形监测资料进行多尺度一维分解、阈值选择和自动消噪等分析，提取了变形的主要因素，说明了小波分析的有效性和可行性。     

用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型

根据某类事件发生时太阳系主要运动天体的位置，通过对其历史资料的归算，尝试并设计出一种具有普适性的事件时间预测模型．以1900-1980年间全球所有8级及以上的99次地震为例，定义与天体特征位置(视黄经)相关的发震率，初步建立预测发震时刻的概率曲线．指出这可能成为研究地震预报问题的新途径．     

形变数字化资料综合评价

以观测条件及观测质量居全国前列的山东泰安台为例．对固体潮形变观测的数字化与模拟资料的一致性、精度等方面进行了对比研究，认为固体潮的数字化与模拟观测资料的形态、观测精度、方差及均值无显著差异。通过对潮汐因子中误差、相位滞后及仪器零漂等参量的计算，对山东、上海及江苏各套形变数字化仪器观测资料的连续性、稳定性及观测质量进行了综合分析。在数字化倾斜仪中，水管倾斜仪的稳定性及精度较高，石英摆存在一定程度的漂移，垂直摆倾斜仪的漂移较大且资料精度较低。伸缩仪也存在精度较低的情况，但数字化资料精度略高于模拟资料；压容及体应变仪资料精度较高，但压容仪漂移较大，仪器稳定性不及体应变仪；体应变仪受气压、水位影响较显著。山东各形变台观测贤料总体质量较好，上海余山、江苏常熟台次之，江苏徐州台较其它台受降雨干扰大、漂移大，资料的稳定性及精度较低，说明台址条件是决定观测质量的重要因素之一。     

关于CCD平场快门效应的改正及有关问题

本文对文献中报道的两种测定快门效应改正的方法进行了讨论．我们指出，对反光镜卡焦，即使面光源本身亮度分布均匀，照射在ＣＣＤ上的辐射也可以不均匀，允许有一个二维分布。但如果这种亮度的相对分布在晨昏蒙影过程中也变化，则Ｓｕｒｍａ方法的应用便要受到影响，而这是许多人忽略的．从单纯测定快门改正函数的角度看，圆顶平场法测定更简单准确．可惜，大多数情况下精确改正快门效应的目的是同时得到精确的平场．如果要求１％或更高精度的平场，单测定快门改正还不够．对每架给定的反光镜，如何测定平场本身都是需要仔细研究的事． 作为例子，给出了佘山１．５６米反光镜加Ｔｈｏｍｓｏｎ ＲＣＣＤ（１０２４ ｘ １０２４像元）的快门改正测定．     

不适定方程正则化算法的谱分解式

从观测方程系数矩阵的谱分解着手探讨不适宜方程的正则化算法。利用谱分解式阐明了正则化的主要作用是平滑对参数估值比较敏感的观测误差的高频分量，完整给出了最小二乘平差、秩亏平差和病态方程正则化解的谱分解公式，证明了正则化解参数估值偏离真值的二次范数的期望值与均方误差是等价的。     

RT Leonis Minoris： an Unstable W Ursae Majoris System with a Spotted Component

Complete BV light curves of the W UMa type binary RT LMi are presented. From the observations, four times of minimum light were determined. Based on the new times of minimum light and those collected from the literature, changes in the orbital period of the system were found and analyzed with Kalimeris et al.'s method. The result shows that the orbital period possibly oscillates with a cycle of about 64 years and an amplitude of 1.2 × 10-6 days. The present CCD photometric observations reveal that the light curves are obviously asymmetrical, and show a positive O'Connell effect, while the light curves obtained in 1982 exhibit a negative O'Connell effect. The present light curves were analyzed by means of the latest version of the Wilson-Devinney code, which was also used to correct the photometric effects, including the distortion on the radial-velocity curves obtained by Rucinski et al. The following absolute dimensions have been derived: MI -1.28 ±0.08 M⊙, M2 = 0.48 ±0.06 M⊙, R1 = 1.28 ±0.06 R⊙,     

Responses of foraminiferal isotopic variations at ODP Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea to orbital forcing

1 Astronomical theory One of the greatest achievements of the EarthSciences in the 20th century is the establishment of theMilankovitch theory or the astronomical theory[1]. AsImbrie pointed out[2], the astronomical theory can bedescribed as a simple system model. The input to thesystem can be defined as changes in the geometry ofthe Earth’s orbit or the seasonal and latitudinal distri-bution of incoming solar radiation, whereas the outputto the system can be defined as one or more calc…     

Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅡ:Improvement of Wave Component Prediction

Based on Chen et al. (2006), the scheme of the combination of the pentad-mean zonal height departure nonlinear prediction with the T42L9 model prediction was designed, in which the pentad zonal heights at all the 12-initial-value-input isobar levels from 50 hPa to 1000 hPa except 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa were derived from nonlinear forecasts of the four levels by means of a good correlation between neighboring levels. Then the above pentad zonal heights at 12 isobar-levels were transformed to the spectrum coefficients of the temperature at each integration step of T42L9 model. At last, the nudging was made. On account of a variety of error accumulation, the pentad zonal components of the monthly height at isobar levels output by T42L9 model were replaced by the corresponding nonlinear results once more when integration was over. Multiple case experiments showed that such combination of two kinds of prediction made an improvement in the wave component as a result of wave-flow nonlinear interaction while reducing the systematical forecast errors. Namely the monthly-mean height anomaly correlation coefficients over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the Southern Hemisphere and over the globe increased respectively from 0.249 to 0.347, from 0.286 to 0.387, and from 0.343 to 0.414 (relative changes of 31.5%, 41.0%, and 18.3%). The monthly-mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of T42L9 model over the three areas was considerably decreased, the relative change over the globe reached 44.2%. The monthly-mean anomaly correlation coefficients of wave 4-9 over the areas were up to 0.392, 0.200, and 0.295, with the relative change of 53.8%, 94.1%, and 61.2%, and correspondingly their RMSEs were decreased respectively with the rate of 8.5%, 6.3%, and 8.1%. At the same time the monthly-mean pattern of parts of cases were presented better.     

Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅠ:Prediction of Zonal Mean Flow

Systematic errors have recently been founded to be distinct in the zonal mean component forecasts, which account for a large portion of the total monthly-mean forecast errors. To overcome the difficulty of numerical model, the monthly pentad-riean nonlinear dynamic regional prediction models of the zonal mean geopotential height at 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa based on a large number of historical data (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data) were constituted by employing the local approximation of the phase space reconstruction theory and nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method. The 12-month forecast experiments of 1996 indicated that the results of the nonlinear model are better than those of the persistent, climatic prediction, and T42L9 model either over the high- and mid-latitude areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres or the tropical area. The root-mean-square of the monthly-mean height of T42L9 model was considerably decreased with a change of 30.4%, 26.6%, 82.6%, and 39.4%, respectively, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, over the tropics and over the globe, and also the corresponding anomaly correlation coefficients over the four areas were respectively increased by 0.306-0.312, 0.304-0.429, 0.739-0.746, and 0.360-0.400 (averagely a relative change of 11.0% over the globe) by nonlinear correction after integration, implying that the forecasts given by nonlinear model include more useful information than those of T42L9 model.     

A Study on the Recovery and Classification of Meteorites from the Mt. Grove Region of Antarctica

The Antarctic Continent has become the largest natural preservatory of meteorites in the world because of its unique geographical position and climatic conditions. Mt. Grove is located in the inland area of the Antarctic Continent where the conditions are favorable for the preservation of meteorites. During China's 15th, 16th and 19th Antarctic Scientific Explorations a large number of meteorites were recovered in the Mt. Grove region. Especially during the 19th Exploration in 2002/03 a total of 4448 meteorites were recovered, which at one stroke put China among countries that have recovered most numbers of meteorites. Here, we report mainly the results of microscope and electron microprobe studies of 28 meteorites recovered during the 16th Exploration. The meteorites are chemically classified based on their mean Fa contents of olivine, mean Fs contents of low-Ca pyroxene and abundances of Fe-Ni metal. We also give a brief account of the meteorite recovery during the three Explorations and of some preli