基于HBV模型的淮河流域洪水致灾临界雨量研究

根据流域暴雨洪水致灾机制,文章提出了考虑前期基础水位的动态致灾临界雨量指标,并以淮河上游地区为例,基于HBV水文模型建立了降水-流量-水位关系,并根据这种关系确立了临界雨量确定的方法流程.首先基于历史水文数据率定和验证模型,得到适用于研究区的最优化模型参数,然后构建洪水上涨期水位流量关系,最后以是否达到致灾水位为标准,通过模型试算并结合水位流量关系曲线反推出致灾临界雨量值.在淮河上游地区的研究中,利用2002-2009年逐日气象水文数据对HBV模型进行了参数率定和检验,并针对洪水过程进行了参数优化,经过率定后HBV模型对王家坝以上流域具备较好的适用性,对典型洪水过程模拟的确定性系数和NASH效率系数均在0.8以上;根据王家坝站实测流量水位数据,构建了概化的单一关系曲线;结合HBV模型和水位流量关系得到了王家坝以上流域的动态致灾临界雨量指标,临界雨量值随前期基础水位升高而减小,并且随着前期水位的变化,临界雨量值呈现了明显的非线性响应特征.     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

磁场重联实验室模拟进展

磁场重联是空间等离子体和实验室等离子体中的常见现象,被认为是太阳耀斑和磁层亚暴的重要机制。实验室磁场重联的模拟研究已经有二十余年的历史,并且取得了一系列重要的结果。对几个主要的磁场重联实验装置进行了介绍,给出了各个装置的等离子体参数以及产生重联的方法,回顾了实验室研究中和太阳射电密切相关的几个问题。另外,以中国科技大学的线性磁化等离子体装置为基础,建立了国内首个磁场重联的实验装置,研制了实验中需要的诊断工具,并开展了初步的磁场重联实验。     

Improvements of One-dimensional Variational Assimilation Algorithm Based on Occultation Technique

Utilizing the occultation data observed by LEO (low earth orbit) satellites, we can invert the profiles of air pressure, water vapor, temperature of terrestrial atmosphere and so on, and they are the valuable data resources for studying the meteorology and atmospheric sciences. The assimilation techniques with the occultation data can effectively improve these profiles of meteorological parameters, thus they can improve the accuracy of current numerical weather forecasting. The greatest difficulty is the huge amount of calculation to enter into the meteorological operational processes for applying the parameter profiles observed by occultation with the method of variational assimilation. With the improvements of the function of one-dimensional variational assimilation and the new design for iterative process, the defects of repeated calculation of the large dimension matrix can be avoided, thereby improving the computational efficiency of variational assimilation. In the discussion of applicability, it is used as the true value of the vectors of the background field plus one white Gaussian noise to test the variational assimilation results on the occultation data of satellite CHAMP.     

Distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in Yellow Sea sediments

To investigate the distribution,abundance,and species composition of dinoflagellate cysts in the Yellow Sea,surface sediment samples were collected at 37 sites,including the Korean dump site.Twenty-one dinoflagellate cyst taxa were identified,with the assemblages dominated mainly by Spiniferites bulloideus,Operculodinium centrocarpum,and cyst of Alexandrium catenella/tamarense type.A high frequency of O.centrocarpum in the Yellow Sea was observed for the first time,and it is likely that this can be attributed to the dynamics of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass and the Changjiang(Yangtze) River runoff.Total cyst concentrations ranged from 23 to 48 442 cysts/g dry weight,and high cyst concentrations were recorded adjacent to the dumping site.This result suggests that anthropogenic activities such as ocean dumping stimulate the growth of dinoflagellates in the Yellow Sea,which in turn leads to high levels of dinoflagellate cyst production.     

Effects of prescribed initial cloud droplet spectra on convective cloud and precipitation developments under different thermodynamic conditions: A modeling and observational study

A two-dimensional cloud model with bin microphysics was used to investigate the effects of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and thermodynamic conditions on convective cloud and precipitation developments. Two different initial cloud droplet spectra were prescribed based on the total CCN concentrations of maritime (300 cm^− 3) and continental (1000 cm^− 3) air masses, and the model was run on eight thermodynamic conditions obtained from observational soundings. Six-hourly sounding data and 1-hourly precipitation data from two nearby weather stations in Korea were analyzed for the year 2002 to provide some observational support for the model results.For one small Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) ( 300 J kg^− 1) sounding, the maritime and continental differences were incomparably large. The crucial difference was the production of ice phase hydrometeors in the maritime cloud and only water drops in the continental cloud. Ice phase hydrometeors and intrinsically large cloud drops of the maritime cloud eventually lead to significant precipitation. Meanwhile negligible precipitation developed from the continental cloud. For the three other small CAPE soundings, generally weak convective clouds developed but the maritime and continental clouds were of the same phases (both warm or both cold) and their differences were relatively small.Model runs with the four large CAPE ( 3000 J kg^− 1) soundings demonstrated that the depth between the freezing level (FL) and the lifting condensation level (LCL) was crucial to determine whether a cloud becomes a cold cloud or not, which in turn was found to be a crucial factor to enhance cloud invigoration with the additional supply of freezing latent heat. For two large CAPE soundings, FL–LCL was so deep that penetration of FL was prohibitive, and precipitation was only mild in the maritime clouds and negligible in the continental clouds. Two other soundings of similarly large CAPE had small FL–LCL, and both the maritime and continental clouds became cold clouds. Precipitation was strong for both but much more so in the maritime clouds, while the maximum updraft velocity and the cloud top were slightly higher in continental clouds. Although limited to small CAPE cases, more precipitation for smaller FL–LCL for a selected group of precipitation and thermodynamic sounding data from Korea was in support of these model results in its tendency.These results clearly demonstrated that the CCN effects on cloud and precipitation developments critically depended on the given thermodynamic conditions and not just the CAPE but the entire structure of the thermodynamic profiles had to be taken into account.     

地形对降水的影响研究概述

简要回顾了近些年来有关地形对降水影响的研究进展。介绍了地形的动力效应和热力效应,详细分析了地形的动力、热力效应引起的降水和云物理变化。重点分析了地形对气候尺度、天气尺度、中尺度及对流性天气系统降水的影响。简单地讨论了在研究地形对降水影响时观测分析、气候统计、理论分析及数值模拟方面存在的问题及其未来发展前景。     

大别山岳西县石关混合岩锆石SHRIMP定年及其地质意义

安徽岳西县石关混合岩属于原北大别变质杂岩的一部分。锆石SHRIMPU-Pb定年结果:第一次变质时间为232Ma,相当于晚三叠世早期,第二次变质时间为207Ma,相当于晚三叠世晚期。复合锆石的核部(继承锆石)为发育韵律环带的岩浆碎屑锆石,其年龄值分别为560Ma、444Ma、394Ma、378Ma和331Ma,暗示其原岩非岩浆岩,而应为沉积岩;研究结果还表明,北大别石关混合岩经历了两次变质作用:①超高压变质作用,变质时间为232Ma(n=5加权平均年龄);②退变质作用,时间为207Ma。与苏鲁地区超高压变质和退变质时间一致。     

矿山土地复垦方案中对开采塌陷区预测方法的探讨

通过对土地复垦方案采用的几种方法的比较及分析,选择导水裂隙带最大高度与移动角组合判别法的方法,圈定出矿山因开采易导致地表塌陷的区域,为矿山土地复垦方案中主要拟破坏土地的确定提供方便、实用的方法。     

深厚覆盖层上高土石坝极限抗震能力分析

针对强震区深厚覆盖层上高土石坝的特点,在三维真非线性有效应力地震反应分析基础上,提出了一套深厚覆盖层上高土石坝极限抗震能力的研究方法。从稳定、变形、防渗体安全等方面,对建在深厚覆盖层上的长河坝高心墙堆石坝的极限抗震能力进行了研究和分析。根据坝坡稳定性、地震残余变形、液化可能性、单元抗震安全性、防渗心墙及坝基防渗墙安全等多角度的评价结果,初步认为,长河坝的极限抗震能力为0.50～0.55g。