Classification issues within ensemble-based simulation: application to surge floods forecasting

The paper proposes a high-level conceptual and technological approach to manage the ensemble-based simulation, taking into account changing states of both simulated system and system of models. The approach includes systematization of ensemble-based modeling and simulation techniques, analysis of simulation results, quality assessments, and detailed analysis of ensemble management procedures using classification operators. The technological basis for such an approach includes ensemble-based simulation techniques using domain-specific software combined within a composite application; data science approaches for analysis of available datasets (simulation data, observations, situation assessments, etc.). Within this work, a set of case studies is addressed to examine the opportunities provided by the developed approach considering ensemble-based simulation of storm surges for flood prediction in St. Petersburg, Russia as an example.     

Mesoscale circulation along the Sakhalin Island eastern coast

The seasonal and interannual variability of mesoscale circulation along the eastern coast of the Sakhalin Island in the Okhotsk Sea is investigated using the AVISO velocity field and oceanographic data for the period from 1993 to 2016. It is found that mesoscale cyclones with the horizontal dimension of about 100 km occur there predominantly during summer, whereas anticyclones occur predominantly during fall and winter. The cyclones are generated due to a coastal upwelling forced by northward winds and the positive wind stress curl along the Sakhalin coast. The anticyclones are formed due to an inflow of low-salinity Amur River waters from the Sakhalin Gulf intensified by southward winds and the negative wind stress curl in the cold season. The mesoscale cyclones support the high biological productivity at the eastern Sakhalin shelf in July– August.     

Elastic wave‐vector decomposition in heterogeneous anisotropic media

The goal of wave‐mode separation and wave‐vector decomposition is to separate a full elastic wavefield into three wavefields with each corresponding to a different wave mode. This allows elastic reverse‐time migration to handle each wave mode independently. Several of the previously proposed methods to accomplish this task require the knowledge of the polarisation vectors of all three wave modes in a given anisotropic medium. We propose a wave‐vector decomposition method where the wavefield is decomposed in the wavenumber domain via the analytical decomposition operator with improved computational efficiency using low‐rank approximations. The method is applicable for general heterogeneous anisotropic media. To apply the proposed method in low‐symmetry anisotropic media such as orthorhombic, monoclinic, and triclinic, we define the two S modes by sorting them based on their phase velocities (S1 and S2), which are defined everywhere except at the singularities. The singularities can be located using an analytical condition derived from the exact phase‐velocity expressions for S waves. This condition defines a weight function, which can be applied to attenuate the planar artefacts caused by the local discontinuity of polarisation vectors at the singularities. The amplitude information lost because of weighting can be recovered using the technique of local signal–noise orthogonalisation. Numerical examples show that the proposed approach provides an effective decomposition method for all wave modes in heterogeneous, strongly anisotropic media.     

Effective Rigidity of a Polar Neutron Monitor for Recording Ground-Level Enhancements

The “effective” rigidity of a neutron monitor for a ground-level enhancement (GLE) event is defined so that the event-integrated fluence of solar energetic protons with rigidity above it is directly proportional to the integral intensity of the GLE as recorded by a polar neutron monitor, within a wide range of solar energetic-proton spectra. This provides a direct way to assess the integral fluence of a GLE event based solely on neutron-monitor data. The effective rigidity/energy was found to be 1.13?–?1.42 GV (550?–?800 MeV). A small model-dependent, systematic uncertainty in the value of the effective rigidity is caused by uncertainties in the low-energy range of the neutron-monitor yield function, which requires more detailed computations of the latter.     

Automated placement of supplementary contour lines

Supplementary contour lines are placed between regular contour lines to visualize small but important forms that regular contour lines are unable to show. On topographic maps, typical forms are hillcrests, depressions, saddles, terraces, banks, and levees. No automated method for the selection of supplementary contour lines has been described so far. We document cartographic design principles for the selection of supplementary contour lines for topographic maps, and present an automated method for their placement. Results of the automated method are similar to manually placed supplementary contour lines. Our method helps map authors to create contour line maps that more effectively illustrate relevant small details in maps showing terrain elevation or other scalar fields.     

Algorithms of the Potential Field Calculation in a Three-Dimensional Box

The potential field inside a three-dimensional box with the normal magnetic field component given on all boundaries needs to be calculated to estimate important quantities related to the magnetic field, such as free energy and relative helicity. In this work we present an analysis of three methods for calculating the potential field inside a three-dimensional box. The accuracy and performance of the methods are tested on artificial models with a priori known solutions.     

Composition and origin of holotype Al‐Cu‐Zn minerals in relation to quasicrystals in the Khatyrka meteorite

We investigated the khatyrkite–cupalite holotype sample, 1.2 × 0.5 mm across. It consists of khatyrkite (Cu,Zn)Al₂, cupalite (Cu,Zn)Al, and interstitial material with approximate composition (Zn,Cu)Al₃. All mineral phases of the holotype sample contain Zn and lack Fe that distinguishes them from khatyrkite and cupalite in the Khatyrka meteorite particles (Bindi et al. 2009 , 2011 , 2012 , 2015 ; MacPherson et al. 2013 ; Hollister et al. 2014 ). Neither highly fractionated natural systems nor geo‐ or cosmochemical processes capable of forming the holotype sample are known so far. The bulk chemistry and thermal history of khatyrkite–cupalite assemblage in the holotype sample hint for its possible industrial origin. Likewise, the aluminides in the Khatyrka meteorite particles may also be derived from industrial materials and mixed with extraterrestrial matter during gold prospecting in the Listvenitovy Stream valley.     

On the fate of processed matter in dwarf galaxies

Two-dimensional calculations of the evolution of remnants generated by the strong mechanical energy deposited by stellar clusters in dwarf galaxies ( M  ∼ 10⁹–10¹⁰ M⊙) are presented. The evolution is followed for times longer than both the blowout time and the presumed span of energy injection generated by a coeval massive stellar cluster. The remnants are shown to end up wrapping around the central region of the host galaxy, while growing to kiloparsec-scale dimensions. Properties of the remnants such as luminosity, size, swept-up mass and expansion speed are given as functions of time for all calculated cases.   The final fate of the swept-up galactic gas and of the matter processed by the central starburst is shown to be highly dependent on the properties of the low-density galactic halo. Superbubbles powered by star clusters, with properties similar to those inferred from the observations, slow down in the presence of an extended halo to expansion speeds smaller than the host galaxy escape velocity. Values of the critical luminosity required for the superbubbles to reach the edge of the galaxies with a speed comparable to the escape speed are derived analytically and numerically. The critical luminosities are larger than those in the detected sources, and thus the superbubbles in amorphous dwarf galaxies must have already undergone blowout and are presently evolving into an extended low-density halo. This will inhibit the loss of the swept-up and processed matter from the galaxy.     

Seasonal variability in Atlantic Water off Spitsbergen

A combination of 2-year-long mooring-based measurements and snapshot conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) observations at the continental slope off Spitsbergen (81°30′N, 31°00′E) is used to demonstrate a significant hydrographic seasonal signal in Atlantic Water (AW) that propagates along the Eurasian continental slope in the Arctic Ocean. At the mooring position this seasonal signal dominates, contributing up to 50% of the total variance. Annual temperature maximum in the upper ocean (above 215 m) is reached in mid-November, when the ocean in the area is normally covered by ice. Distinct division into ‘summer’ (warmer and saltier) and ‘winter’ (colder and fresher) AW types is revealed there. Estimated temperature difference between the ‘summer’ and ‘winter’ waters is 1.2 °C, which implies that the range of seasonal heat content variations is of the same order of magnitude as the mean local AW heat content, suggesting an important role of seasonal changes in the intensity of the upward heat flux from AW. Although the current meter observations are only 1-year long, they hint at a persistent, highly barotropic current with little or no seasonal signal attached.