A model for estimating the value of sampling programs and the optimal number of samples for contaminated soil

A model is presented for estimating the value of information of sampling programs for contaminated soil. The purpose is to calculate the optimal number of samples when the objective is to estimate the mean concentration. A Bayesian risk–cost–benefit decision analysis framework is applied and the approach is design-based. The model explicitly includes sample uncertainty at a complexity level that can be applied to practical contaminated land problems with limited amount of data. Prior information about the contamination level is modelled by probability density functions. The value of information is expressed in monetary terms. The most cost-effective sampling program is the one with the highest expected net value. The model was applied to a contaminated scrap yard in Göteborg, Sweden, contaminated by metals. The optimal number of samples was determined to be in the range of 16–18 for a remediation unit of 100 m². Sensitivity analysis indicates that the perspective of the decision-maker is important, and that the cost of failure and the future land use are the most important factors to consider. The model can also be applied for other sampling problems, for example, sampling and testing of wastes to meet landfill waste acceptance procedures.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006. During this period, 572 earthquakes and 91 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, two occurred in conjunction with the construction of the new Gotthard railway tunnel and 165 were induced artificially by the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel. With 20 events with M _L ≥ 2.5, five of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2006 was far below the average over the previous 31 years. Nevertheless, six events were felt by the public, most prominently the strongest of the induced Basel events (M _L 3.4), which caused some non-structural building damage. Noteworthy are also the two earthquakes near Cortaillod (M _L 3.2), on the shore of Lake Neuchatel, and in Val Mora (M _L 3.5), between the Engadin and Val Müstair, as well as the 42 aftershocks of the M _L 4.9 Vallorcine earthquake, between Martigny and Chamonix, of September 2005. Editorial handling: Stefan Bucher     

Spatial Analysis Techniques as Successful Mineral-Potential Mapping Tools for Orogenic Gold Deposits in the Northern Fennoscandian Shield,Finland

Geoscientific Information Systems (GIS) provide tools to quantitatively analyze and integrate spatially referenced information from geological, geophysical, and geochemical surveys for decision-making processes. Excellent coverage of well-documented, precise and good quality data enables testing of variable exploration models in an efficient and cost effective way with GIS tools. Digital geoscientific data from the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) are being used widely as spatial evidence in exploration targeting, that is ranking areas based on their exploration importance. In the last few years, spatial analysis techniques including weights-of-evidence, logistic regression, and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly used in GTK’s mineral exploration and geological mapping projects. Special emphasis has been put into the exploration for gold because of the excellent data coverage within the prospective volcanic belts and because of the increased activity in gold exploration in Finland during recent years. In this paper, we describe some successful case histories of using the weights-of-evidence method for the Au-potential mapping. These projects have shown that, by using spatial modeling techniques, exploration targets can be generated by quantitatively analyzing extensive amounts of data from various sources and to rank these target areas based on their exploration potential.     

New insights into the P- and S-wave velocity structure of the D" discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate

Broad-band P - and S -waves from earthquakes in South America recorded at Californian network stations are analysed to image lateral variations of the D"-discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate. We apply two array processing methods to the data set: a simplified migration method to the P -wave data set and a double-array method to both the P - and S -wave data sets, allowing us to compare results from the two methods. The double-array method images a dipping reflector at a depth range from 2650 to 2700 km in the southern part of the study area. We observe a step-like topography of 100 km to a shallower reflector at about 2600 km depth to the north, as well as evidence for a second (deeper) reflector at a depth range from 2700 to 2750 km in the north. Results from the simplified migration agree well with those from the double-array method, similarly locating a large step in reflector depth in a similar location (about 2650 km depth in the south and about 2550 km in the north) as well as the additional deeper reflector at the depth of about 2750 km in the north. Waveform modelling of the reflected waves from both methods suggests a positive velocity contrast for S waves, but a negative velocity contrast for P waves for the upper reflector in agreement with predictions from mineral physical calculations for a post-perovskite phase transition. The data also show some evidence for the existence of another deeper reflector that could indicate a double intersection of the geotherm with the post-perovskite stability field, that is, the back-transformation of post-perovskite to perovskite close to the core–mantle boundary.     

Spatial and temporal structure of the Denmark Strait Overflow revealed by acoustic observations

In spite of the fundamental role the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays for global climate stability, no direct current measurement of the Denmark Strait Overflow, which is the densest part of the AMOC, has been available until recently that resolve the cross-stream structure at the sill for long periods. Since 1999, an array of bottom-mounted acoustic instruments measuring current velocity and bottom-to-surface acoustic travel times was deployed at the sill. Here, the optimization of the array configuration based on a numerical overflow model is discussed. The simulation proves that more than 80% of the dense water transport variability is captured by two to three acoustic current profilers (ADCPs). The results are compared with time series from ADCPs and Inverted Echo Sounders deployed from 1999 to 2003, confirming that the dense overflow plume can be reliably measured by bottom-mounted instruments and that the overflow is largely geostrophically balanced at the sill.     

Town of Tornio in November 1898: a rare survey of earthquake damage in Finland

This study investigates the effects of the Fennoscandian earthquake that occurred on 4 November 1898 (GMT) on Tornio in Northern Finland. The extra fire inspection conducted in the town on 21, 22 and 23 November 1898 provided insight into the failures caused by this low-magnitude earthquake. The building stock was of timber with masonry stone components. More than 30 heating units sustained damage. The macroseismic intensity in Tornio is estimated at I = 6 (European Macroseismic Scale).     

The surface energy balance of a snow cover: comparing measurements to two differentsimulation models

Summary  We compared two one-dimensional simulation models for heat and water fluxes in the soil-snow-atmosphere system with respect to their mathematical formulations of the surface heat exchange and the snow pack evolution. They were chosen as examples of a simple one-layer snow model and a more detailed multiple-layer snow model (SNTHERM). The snow models were combined with the same one-dimensional model for the heat and water balance of the underlying soil (CoupModel). Data from an arable field in central Sweden (Marsta), covering two years (1997–1999) of soil temperature, snow depth and eddy-correlation measurements were successfully compared with the models. Conditions with a snow pack deeper or shallower than 10 cm and bare soil resulted in similar discrepancies. The simulated net radiation and sensible heat flux were in good agreement with that measured during snow-covered periods, except for situations with snowmelt when the downward sensible heat flux was overestimated by 10–20 Wm⁻². The results showed that the uncertainties in parameter values were more important than the model formulation and that both models were useful in evaluating the limitations and uncertainties of the measurements. Received November 1, 1999 Revised April 20, 2000     

Four thousand years of atmospheric lead pollution in northern Europe: a summary from Swedish lake sediments

This paper presents a large palaeolimnological study of the pre-industrial and industrial history of atmospheric lead pollution deposition in Sweden. Both lead concentrations and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios have been analysed in 31 lakes covering most of Sweden, plus one lake in north-west Russia. Four of the lakes have varved (annually-laminated) sediments. Isotope analysis is a sensitive and effective method to distinguish pollution lead from natural catchment lead and to detect early pollution influence, because the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio in unpolluted background sediments in Sweden was > 1.3, while that of lead from pollution, derived from ores and coal, was < 1.2. The sediments show a consistent picture of past temporal changes in atmospheric lead pollution. These changes include: the first traces of pollution 3,500-3,000 yrs ago; a pollution peak in Greek-Roman Times (about 0 AD); lower lead fall-out between 400 and 900 AD; a significant and permanent increase in atmospheric lead fall-out from about 1000 AD; an increase with the Industrial revolution; a major increase following World War II; the maximum peak in the 1970s; and decreasing fall-out over the last decades. The four varved sediments provide high-resolution records of atmospheric pollution. They reveal pollution peaks about 1200 and 1530 AD which match the history of metal production in Europe. According to the varve records the lead pollution level in the late 1990s had decreased beneath the level of the 1530s. The pollution level 1200 AD was about 35% of the 1980s, when lead pollution was still near its all time high. About 50% of the total accumulated atmospheric lead pollution deposition through time was deposited in the pre-industrial period. The sediments also show a consistent picture of the geographic distribution of atmospheric lead deposition over time, with higher deposition in south Sweden and declining levels to the north, which supports the hypothesis that the main sources of pre-industrial atmospheric lead pollution in Sweden were cultural areas in mainland Europe and Great Britain.     

Lithospheric thickness beneath the southern Kenya Rift: implications from basalt geochemistry

Geochemical data are reported for samples from the flanks and floor of the southern Kenya Rift Valley in the Lake Magadi area, and from two central volcanoes located within the rift valley. Rift lavas include samples of Singaraini and Ol Tepesi basalts on the eastern flank, Kirikiti basalts from the western flank, and plateau trachytes from the rift valley floor. Central volcano samples are from Ol Esayeiti and Lenderut located on the eastern flank. The rift basalts are mildly ne-normative, moderately evolved (Mg#=0.39-0.62) alkali basalts and show an overall range in differentiation. Incompatible trace element abundances are moderately elevated (Nb=17-51; Zr=93-274; La=17-55 ppm) and show strongly coherent variations and constant inter-element ratios (e.g. Zr/Nb=4.2-5.5; Nb/Ta=17.5ǂ.4; (La/Sm)_n=7.3ǃ.1); isotope ratios are restricted in range (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70393-0.70436; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd=0.51272-0.51280; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=19.87-19.92; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.68-15.70; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=39.56-39.71). Central volcano lavas are more alkaline in character and include basanite (Ol Esayeiti; Mg# >60) and hawaiite to benmoreite (Lenderut; Mg#=0.48-0.38). Incompatible element ratio are similar to those of the rift basalts, although the chondrite normalised REE patterns are steeper (La/Sm)_n=17.4ǃ.2). ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70358, 0.70391), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51280, 0.51267), ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (19.96,20.17), ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (15.66,15.76) and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (39.80,40.00) ratios of Ol Esayeiti basanites are similar to the rift basalts, whereas the Lenderut lavas have unusually low¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.512388-0.512453) ratios for their ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70370-0.70481) ratios, and distinctly less radiogenic and variable Pb isotope compositions (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=17.93-19.01; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.43-15.58; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=37.91-39.14). An integrated model is developed in which the geochemical signature of the lavas is attributed to variable degrees of melting to depths within the garnet stability field, and in the presence of residual amphibole. The stability fields of these phases in P-T space indicates that the lavas must have formed within the sub-continental lithosphere rather than within the underlying ambient asthenosphere or a rising mantle plume. The subcontinental lithospheric mantle must therefore extend to a depth of at least 75 km beneath the Lake Magadi area, which contrasts with recent gravity models for the area, which infer that lithospheric mantle is absent beneath this section of the southern Kenya Rift.