Hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for Sengan region,Japan

A 1 km square regular grid system created on the Universal Transverse Mercator zone 54 projected coordinate system is used to work with volcanism related data for Sengan region. The following geologic variables were determined as the most important for identifying volcanism: geothermal gradient, groundwater temperature, heat discharge, groundwater pH value, presence of volcanic rocks and presence of hydrothermal alteration. Data available for each of these important geologic variables were used to perform directional variogram modeling and kriging to estimate geologic variable vectors at each of the 23949 centers of the chosen 1 km cell grid system. Cluster analysis was performed on the 23949 complete variable vectors to classify each center of 1 km cell into one of five different statistically homogeneous groups with respect to potential volcanism spanning from lowest possible volcanism to highest possible volcanism with increasing group number. A discriminant analysis incorporating Bayes’ theorem was performed to construct maps showing the probability of group membership for each of the volcanism groups. The said maps showed good comparisons with the recorded locations of volcanism within the Sengan region. No volcanic data were found to exist in the group 1 region. The high probability areas within group 1 have the chance of being the no volcanism region. Entropy of classification is calculated to assess the uncertainty of the allocation process of each 1 km cell center location based on the calculated probabilities. The recorded volcanism data are also plotted on the entropy map to examine the uncertainty level of the estimations at the locations where volcanism exists. The volcanic data cell locations that are in the high volcanism regions (groups 4 and 5) showed relatively low mapping estimation uncertainty. On the other hand, the volcanic data cell locations that are in the low volcanism region (group 2) showed relatively high mapping estimation uncertainty. The volcanic data cell locations that are in the medium volcanism region (group 3) showed relatively moderate mapping estimation uncertainty. Areas of high uncertainty provide locations where additional site characterization resources can be spent most effectively. The new data collected can be added to the existing database to perform future regionalized mapping and reduce the uncertainty level of the existing estimations.     

Quantifying urbanization-associated changes in terrestrial hydrologic system memory

A common feature of watershed urbanization is increased hydrograph ‘flashiness,’ whereby river discharge fluctuations grow more erratic. Such changes might be intuitively interpreted as a decrease in watershed-scale hydrologic system memory. Here, I investigate this hypothesis through a paired-catchment experiment. The serial correlation coefficient, a common metric of short-term time series memory, is applied to daily winter streamflow data from urbanizing and rural watersheds in the Puget Sound lowland of Washington State, USA. Statistical comparisons confirm that this metric shows highly significant decreases over time in the catchment undergoing land use change, but not in the control watershed, which remains rural over the hydrometric record. Moreover, the mean serial correlation coefficients are statistically indistinguishable between the two catchments over the early period of record, when both watersheds are largely rural, whereas the system memory is far weaker in the urbanized stream relative to the rural stream over the late period, following land use change in the former. The results appear readily interpretable in terms of the physical hydrologic changes typically associated with urbanization. The serial correlation coefficient thus appears to be an instructive measure of urbanization impacts for small streams in this region.     

Reprocessed emission line profiles from dense clouds in geometrically thick accretion engines

The central engines of active galactic nuclei (AGN) contain cold, dense material as well as hot X-ray-emitting gas. The standard paradigm for the engine geometry is a cold thin disc sandwiched between hot X-ray coronae. Strong support for this geometry in Seyferts comes from the study of fluorescent iron line profiles, although the evidence is not ubiquitously airtight. The thin disc model of line profiles in AGN and in X-ray binaries should still be benchmarked against other plausible possibilities. One proposed alternative is an engine consisting of dense clouds embedded in an optically thin, geometrically thick X-ray-emitting engine. This model is also motivated by studies of geometrically thick engines such as advection-dominated accretion flows (ADAFs). Here we compute the reprocessed iron line profiles from dense clouds embedded in geometrically thick, optically thin X-ray-emitting discs near a Schwarzschild black hole. We consider a range of cloud distributions and disc solutions, including ADAFs, pure radial infall and bipolar outflows. We find that such models can reproduce line profiles similar to those from geometrically thin, optically thick discs and might help alleviate some of the problems encountered from the latter. Thus, independent of thin discs, thick disc engines can also exhibit iron line profiles if embedded dense clouds can survive long enough to reprocess radiation.     

Population maintenance of the scyphozoan<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyanea</Emphasis> sp. Settled planulae and the distribution of medusae in the Niantic River,Connecticut, USA

Scyphozoan jellyfish are seasonally conspicuous in coastal waters, but relatively little is known about the factors that control their distribution and population dynamics.Cyanea sp is a seasonally abundant medusa in the Niantic River, Connecticut, U.S. and appears to maintain a population entirely within the estuary. To better understand the factors controlling their occurrence, we examined the temporal and spatial distribution of settled scyphistomae in relation to that of the medusae. Planula settlement patterns mirrored the presence of mature female medusae. The planulae settled primarily near the bottom. After settlement, planulacysts and polyps on the settlement plates were out competed by large barnacle and ascidian larvae, resulting in a sharp decline in cyst and polyp abundance. This stage-specific mortality may represent a population bottleneck in the life cycle of scyphozoans.     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT PROCESSES IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

lINTR0DUCTI0NTheerosion,transportanddep0siti0nofsedimentinawatershedarepallofthenaturalsystemofwatershedprocesses.InanundistUrbedwatershed,s0ilsinuplandareasaregraduallyeroded,transportCdforsomedistanceandeventuallydepositedatlowereIevations.WhenwatershedsaredistUrbedbyhumanactivitiessuchasclearingofvegetation,urbaniZati0n,orotherchangesthataffectthelandscaPe,unstablechannelswithlocallyhighratesoferosion,transport,0rdepositionofsedimentoftenaretheresult.Theimpact0fer0sionisespeciallyhigh…     

A moving group of young stars in Carina–Vela

Accurate two-colour photometry and proper motions of 7096 young X-ray stars in the ROSAT All-Sky Survey Bright Star Catalogue, version 1RXS, are extracted from the Tycho-2 Catalogue. The sample is dominated by red main-sequence and possibly pre-main-sequence stars. On a global proper motion convergence map, two features are very prominent: the nearby section of the Gould Belt and the Hyades convergent point. The appearance of the Gould Belt feature with its peak at ( l =2443, b =−126) is quite similar to that of Hipparcos OB stars. When only stars with proper motions drawing close to that point are selected, strong concentrations of stars in the direction of the Sco–Cen complex are found. Another concentration, not corresponding to any known OB association, is detected between the position of the Lower Centaurus Crux and Vela OB2 associations. It is a new young moving group located in Carina and Vela, and a near extension of the Sco–Cen complex. Contrary to the classical Gould Belt OB associations, the Carina–Vela moving group has a considerable geometric depth, the closest members being as near as 30 pc from the Sun. IC 2391, one of the youngest and closest open clusters on the sky, is a part of the Carina–Vela moving group. The Carina–Vela moving group does not link the Sco–Cen complex with the Vela OB associations, because the latter is much more distant than the outer limit of the sample. It is more likely that the young late-type population of the Scorpio–Centaurus–Carina moving group stretches towards the Sun and possibly beyond it.     

Heat as a groundwater tracer in shallow and deep heterogeneous media: Analytical solution,spreadsheet tool,and field applications

Groundwater flow advects heat, and thus, the deviation of subsurface temperatures from an expected conduction‐dominated regime can be analysed to estimate vertical water fluxes. A number of analytical approaches have been proposed for using heat as a groundwater tracer, and these have typically assumed a homogeneous medium. However, heterogeneous thermal properties are ubiquitous in subsurface environments, both at the scale of geologic strata and at finer scales in streambeds. Herein, we apply the analytical solution of Shan and Bodvarsson ( 2004 ), developed for estimating vertical water fluxes in layered systems, in 2 new environments distinct from previous vadose zone applications. The utility of the solution for studying groundwater‐surface water exchange is demonstrated using temperature data collected from an upwelling streambed with sediment layers, and a simple sensitivity analysis using these data indicates the solution is relatively robust. Also, a deeper temperature profile recorded in a borehole in South Australia is analysed to estimate deeper water fluxes. The analytical solution is able to match observed thermal gradients, including the change in slope at sediment interfaces. Results indicate that not accounting for layering can yield errors in the magnitude and even direction of the inferred Darcy fluxes. A simple automated spreadsheet tool (Flux‐LM) is presented to allow users to input temperature and layer data and solve the inverse problem to estimate groundwater flux rates from shallow (e.g., <1 m) or deep (e.g., up to 100 m) profiles. The solution is not transient, and thus, it should be cautiously applied where diel signals propagate or in deeper zones where multi‐decadal surface signals have disturbed subsurface thermal regimes.     

Hunter‐gatherer response to late Holocene climatic variability in northern and central Australia

Sum probability analysis of 1275 radiometric ages from 608 archaeological sites across northern and central Australia demonstrates a changing archaeological signature that can be closely correlated with climate variability over the last 2 ka. Results reveal a marked increase in archaeological records across northern and central Australia over the last 2 ka, with notable declines in western and northern Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500 – two periods broadly coeval with the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and the Little Ice Age as they have been documented in the Asia–Pacific region. Latitudinal and longitudinal analysis of the dataset suggests the increase in archaeological footprint was continent wide, while the declines were greatest from 9 to 20° S, 110 to 135° E and 143 to 150° E. The change in the archaeological data suggests that, combined with an increase in population over the late Holocene, a disruption or reorganisation of pre‐European resource systems occurred across Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500. These archaeological responses can be broadly correlated with transitions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mean state on a multi‐decadal to centennial timescale. The latter involve a shift towards the La Niña‐like mean state with wetter conditions in the Australian region between AD 700 and 1150. A transition period in ENSO mean state occurred across Australia during AD 1150–1300, with persistent El Niño‐like and drier conditions to ca. AD 1500, and increasing ENSO variability post‐AD 1500 to the present. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.