Increasing temperature and flow management alter mercury dynamics in East Fork Poplar Creek

East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) is a mercury (Hg) contaminated creek in east Tennessee, USA. Stream restoration activities included the initiation of a flow management programme in 1996 in which water from a nearby lake was pumped to the head of the creek. We conducted regular water sampling for 2 years along the length of EFPC during active flow management and for 5 years after flow management stopped. Total Hg and total monomethylmercury (MMHg) concentration and flux decreased in the uppermost reaches of EFPC that were closest to the point of water addition. Most water quality parameters, including DOC concentration, remained unchanged after flow management termination. Nevertheless, SUVA₂₅₄, a measure of dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition, increased and coincided with increased dissolved Hg (Hg_D) concentration and flux and decreased Hg solid-water partitioning coefficients throughout EFPC. Higher SUVA₂₅₄ and Hg_D concentration have potential implications for bioavailability and MMHg production. Total and dissolved MMHg concentrations increased in lower reaches of EFPC after the end of flow management and these increases were most pronounced during spring and early summer when biota are more susceptible to exposure and uptake. A general warming trend in the creek after active flow management ended likely acted in concert with higher Hg_D concentration to promote higher MMHg concentration. Total and dissolved MMHg concentrations were positively correlated with water temperature above a threshold value of 10°C. Concentration changes for Hg and MMHg could not be accounted for by changes in creek discharge that accompanied the cessation of flow management. In addition to the changing DOM composition in-stream, other watershed-scale factors likely contributed to the observed patterns, as these changes occurred over months rather than instantaneously after flow management stopped. Nevertheless, similar changes in MMHg have not been observed in a tributary to EFPC.     

Chromospheric and coronal Alfvénic oscillations in non-vertical magnetic fields

We generalize previous studies of Alfvénic oscillations in the solar atmosphere to geometries in which the background magnetic field is not parallel to the gravitational acceleration. A uniform but inclined field produces only subtle changes in the mathematics, and virtually no changes to the coronal energy flux, over previous vertical field studies. We show that simple, two-layer models agree remarkably well with more sophisticated, multi-layer calculations. In addition, we derive several useful and accurate analytic results with which we highlight many features and parameter dependences. We also study a model with a spreading field geometry. For low magnetic fields (- 10 G) the corona still appears WKB to the oscillations and we do not find any significant deviations from the uniform field calculations. This is not the case for higher magnetic fields in active regions (- 3000 G) where we confirm previous results which suggest an order of magnitude increase in the coronal flux. Again, we derive useful analytic approximations.Now at: Mathematics Department, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.     

Effects of juniper removal and rainfall variation on tree transpiration in a semi‐arid karst: evidence of complex water storage dynamics

Brush removal is widely practiced as a tool for increasing groundwater recharge, but its efficacy depends greatly on the way in which the removed species interact with the hydrological system relative to the vegetation replacing it. We examined the effects of Ashe juniper removal in the recharge zone of the Edwards Aquifer, Texas, USA, a karst aquifer. The study was conducted in an Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)–live oak (Quercus fusiformis) woodland on a hill slope composed of rocky, shallow soils over fractured limestone bedrock. Ashe juniper is a native species that has been encroaching grasslands and savannas over the past century. In September 2008, a plot was cleared of 90% of its juniper trees. Tree transpiration, predawn water potentials and vegetation cover across the cleared plot and an adjacent reference site were measured from May 2009 to December 2011. Stand‐level tree transpiration from May 2009 to March 2010 was diminished by a severe summer drought in 2009, from which trees were slow to recover. Subsequently, tree transpiration was 5–10× higher in the woodland compared to the clearing. For all of 2011, also a drought year, tree transpiration in the woodland exceeded precipitation inputs, indicating a high capacity for water storage at the study site. However, site differences for oak trees were generally larger than for juniper trees. While juniper removal accounted for a 431 mm year^?1 difference in tree transpiration between sites, vegetation cover in the clearing increased from 42% to 90% over two years, suggesting that understory growth was increasingly compensating for the loss of juniper transpiration. We conclude that the removal of a relatively shallow‐rooted tree, when replaced with herbaceous vegetation and low shrubs, has little effect on deep recharge. By contrast, successive years of precipitation extremes may be more effective increasing recharge by lowering the water transport capacity of trees in the aftermath of severe drought. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 1986 Kermadec earthquake and its relation to plate segmentation

To evaluate the tectonic significance of the October 20, 1986 Kermadec earthquake (M _w =7.7), we performed a comprehensive analysis of source parameters using surface waves, body waves, and relocated aftershocks. Amplitude and phase spectra from up to 93 Rayleigh waves were inverted for centroid time, depth, and moment tensor in a two-step algorithm. In some of the inversions, the time function was parameterized to include information from the body-wave time function. The resulting source parameters were stable with respect to variations in the velocity and attenuation models assumed, the parameterization of the time function, and the set of Rayleigh waves included. The surface wave focal mechanism derived (=275°, =61°, =156°) is an oblique-compressional mechanism that is not easy to interpret in terms of subduction tectonics. A seismic moment of 4.5×10²⁰ N-m, a centroid depth of 45±5 km, and a centroid time of 13±3 s were obtained. Directivity was not resolvable from the surface waves. The short source duration is in significant contrast to many large earthquakes.We performed a simultaneous inversion ofP andSH body waves for focal mechanism and time function. The focal mechanism agreed roughly with the surface wave mechanism. Multiple focal mechanisms remain a possibility, but could not be resolved. The body waves indicate a short duration of slip (15 to 20 s), with secondary moment release 60s later. Seismically radiated energy was computed from the body-wave source spectrum. The stress drop computed from the seismic energy is about 30 bars. Sixty aftershocks that occurred within three months of the mainshock were relocated using the method of Joint Hypocentral Determination (JHD). Most of the aftershocks have underthrusting focal mechanisms and appear to represent triggered slip on the main thrust interface. The depth, relatively high stress drop, short duration of slip, and paucity of true aftershocks are consistent with intraplate faulting within the downgoing plate. Although it is not clear on which nodal plane slip occurred, several factors favor the roughly E-W trending plane. The event occurred near a major segmentation in the downgoing plate at depth, near a bend in the trench, and near a right-lateral offset of the volcanic are by 80 km along an E-W direction. Also, all events in the region from 1977 to 1991 with CMT focal mechanisms similar to that of the Mainshock occurred near the mainshock epicenter, rather than forming an elongate zone parallel to the trench as did the aftershock activity. We interpret this event as part of the process of segmentation or tearing of the subducting slab. This segmentation appears to be related to the subduction of the Louisville Ridge, which may act as an obstacle to subduction through its buoyancy.     

Partial Saturation and Seismicity on Steep Reclaimed Slopes

While traditional mine reclamation methods emphasize compaction to increase the strength of the materials and ensure stability of the restored slope, high compaction restricts the successful reforestation of reclaimed mine sites. The Forest Reclamation Approach (FRA), which uses low compaction in the uppermost 1.2–1.5 m of the surface has been shown to facilitate the establishment of healthy native forests. Stability analyses of three steep FRA slopes from the southern Appalachian region have shown that the long-term static stability is not compromised, and that the infinite slope method provides a rational method to evaluate the stability of steep FRA slopes. In this article, modifications of the infinite slope equation are utilized to (a) include the effects of matric suction due to unsaturated soil conditions and (b) evaluate the seismic performance of FRA slopes based on spectral accelerations. Monthly variation of the water content at three research sites demonstrated the seasonal stability variation of FRA slopes due to matric suction, while seismic analyses illustrated the conditions under which instability may occur.     

Solar and cosmic X-rays above 7.7 keV

Since its launch on March 8, 1967, the OSO-III has continuously observed solar and cosmic X-rays over the 7.7–210 keV range. The sun emits many impulsive X-ray bursts having fluxes several orders of magnitude above the background level of 8 × 10^–9 ergs(cm²-sec)^–1 at 7.7 keV and characteristic times on the order of 5 min. Ninety-five such events having fluxes >3 × 10^–5 ergs(cm²-sec)^–1 were detected in the period from March 8 to June 15, 1967. The cosmic X-ray source Lupus XR-1 has been observed to have a power law spectral form and no significant time variations over a 40-day period. Upper limits have been obtained on the hard X-ray flux of the peculiar galaxy M 87.     

Modeling Images and Spectra of a Solar Flare Observed by RHESSI on 20 February 2002

We have analyzed a C7.5 limb flare observed by RHESSI on 20 February 2002. The RHESSI images appear to show two footpoints and a loop-top source. Our goal was to determine if the data are consistent with a simple steady-state model in which high-energy electrons are continuously injected at the top of a semicircular flare loop. A comparison of the RHESSI images with simulated images from the model has made it possible for us to identify spurious sources and fluxes in the RHESSI images. We find that the RHESSI results are in many aspects consistent with the model if a thermal source is included between the loop footpoints, but there is a problem with the spectral index of the loop-top source. The thermal source between the footpoints is likely to be a low-lying loop interacting with the northern footpoint of a higher loop containing the loop-top source.     

Naïve Simplicity: The Overlooked Piece of the Complexity‐Simplicity Paradigm

Concepts of simplicity and complexity in modeling have been explored in papers, editorials, and talks. The concept is not well understood because there are at least two flavors of simplicity. Modelers envision simplicity (i.e., elegant simplicity) as the sought‐after goal in modeling, but naïve simplicity, which is the focus of this paper, is commonly unrecognized and dangerous. The problem is that naïve or simple ideas are often mistaken for settled science and come with the prospect of being more wrong than right. The concept of the so‐called simplicity cycle, in relation to classical problems of carbon‐14 age and salinity in closed‐basin lakes, is used to illustrate these points. The emerging problems of water‐mosquitoes‐diseases show the value of mapping new problems to the simplicity cycle. Researchers can “know what they do not know” and avoid the dangers of naïve simplicity.     

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.

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