Strong ground motion parameters of the 18 September 2011 Sikkim Earthquake Mw = 6.9 and its analysis: a recent seismic hazard scenario

Natural Hazards - The 18 September 2011 earthquake in Sikkim was one the most devastating earthquake in Sikkim Himalaya in India–Asia collision boundary. The source characteristic of this...     

Parameter identification and uncertainty analysis for simulating streamflow in a river basin of Eastern India

Uncertainty is inherent in modelling studies. However, the quantification of uncertainties associated with a model is a challenging task, and hence, such studies are somewhat limited. As distributed or semi‐distributed hydrological models are being increasingly used these days to simulate hydrological processes, it is vital that these models should be equipped with robust calibration and uncertainty analysis techniques. The goal of the present study was to calibrate and validate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for simulating streamflow in a river basin of Eastern India, and to evaluate the performance of salient optimization techniques in quantifying uncertainties. The SWAT model for the study basin was developed and calibrated using Parameter Solution (ParaSol), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI‐2) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) optimization techniques. The daily observed streamflow data from 1998 to 2003 were used for model calibration, and those for 2004–2005 were used for model validation. Modelling results indicated that all the three techniques invariably yield better results for the monthly time step than for the daily time step during both calibration and validation. The model performances for the daily streamflow simulation using ParaSol and SUFI‐2 during calibration are reasonably good with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.88 and 9.70 m³/s for ParaSol, and 0.86 and 10.07 m³/s for SUFI‐2, respectively. The simulation results of GLUE revealed that the model simulates daily streamflow during calibration with the highest accuracy in the case of GLUE (R² = 0.88, MAE = 9.56 m³/s and root mean square error = 19.70 m³/s). The results of uncertainty analyses by SUFI‐2 and GLUE were compared in terms of parameter uncertainty. It was found that SUFI‐2 is capable of estimating uncertainties in complex hydrological models like SWAT, but it warrants sound knowledge of the parameters and their effects on the model output. On the other hand, GLUE predicts more reliable uncertainty ranges (R‐factor = 0.52 for daily calibration and 0.48 for validation) compared to SUFI‐2 (R‐factor = 0.59 for daily calibration and 0.55 for validation), though it is computationally demanding. Although both SUFI‐2 and GLUE appear to be promising techniques for the uncertainty analysis of modelling results, more and more studies in this direction are required under varying agro‐climatic conditions for assessing their generic capability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SST and ENSO variability and change simulated in historical experiments of CMIP5 models

This work documents the diversity in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating different aspects of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, particularly those associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as the impact of low-frequency variations on the ENSO variability and its global teleconnection. The historical simulations (1870–2005) include 10 models with ensemble member ranging from 3 to 10 that are forced with observed atmospheric composition changes reflecting both natural and anthropogenic forcings. It is shown that the majority of the CMIP5 models capture the relative large SST anomaly variance in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, as well as in North Pacific and North Atlantic. The frequency of ENSO is not well captured by almost all models, particularly for the period of 5–6 years. The low-frequency variations in SST caused by external forcings affect the SST variability and also modify the global teleconnection of ENSO. The models reproduce the global averaged SST low-frequency variations, particularly since 1970s. However, majority of the models are unable to correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the observed SST trends. These results suggest that it is still a challenge to reproduce the features of global historical SST variations with the state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model.     

Accumulation of hexavalent chromium by an exopolysaccharide producing marine Enterobacter cloaceae

An exopolysaccharide producing Enterobacter cloaceae (AK-I-MB-71a) was tested for its Cr (VI) tolerance. This isolate was not only resistant to this heavy metal but also showed enhanced growth and exopolysaccharide production in the presence of Cr (VI) at 25, 50 and 100 ppm concentrations. XRF analysis of both the biomass as well as the exopolysaccharide revealed that a sum total of about 60-70% chromium was accumulated by this bacterium. This indicated that this organism could prove to be a potential candidate in the field of bioremediation with respect to chromium removal.     

Development of National Database on Long-term Deforestation in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is one of the biodiversity hotspots of the world. This study has utilized satellite remote sensing and GIS techniques to generate a nation-wide database on forests, forest types and land use/land cover of Sri Lanka. Spatial assessment of forest cover changes was carried out for the periods 1976–1985, 1985–1994, 1994–2005 and 2005–2014. The landscape fragmentation analysis has carried out to calculate the spatial and temporal patterns of forest. Land use/land cover map was prepared representing seven classes in 2014. The plantations occupy a large area (34.2%) followed by forests (33.4%) and agriculture (26.1%) in 2014. During the period of 1976–2014, the forest has been decreased by 5.5%. From 1976 to 1985 forest recorded a loss at an annual rate of 0.49%. This annual rate decreased to 0.01% during 2005–2014 indicates declining trend of deforestation and effective conservation measures. The study found deforestation hotspots in south east and northern most parts of the Sri Lanka. Total number of patches estimated has increased from 15193 in 1976 to 16136 in 2014. The study has found that main causes of deforestation in Sri Lanka were due to expansion of agriculture and plantations. The extent of change detected in the study through geospatial techniques has significance to the forest ecology and management of natural landscapes in Sri Lanka.     

An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu,India

This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.