Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium

In recent years, the phenomenon of global warming and its implications for the future of the human race have been intensively studied. In contrast, few quantitative studies have been attempted on the notable effects of past climatic changes upon human societies. This study explored the relationship between climatic change and war in China by comparing high-resolution paleo-climatic reconstructions with known war incidences in China in the last millennium. War frequencies showed a cyclic pattern that closely followed the global paleo-temperature changes. Strong and significant correlations were found between climatic change, war occurrence, harvest level, population size and dynastic transition. During cold phases, China suffered more often from frequent wars, population decline and dynastic changes. The quantitative analyses suggested that the reduction of thermal energy input during a cold phase would lower the land carrying capacity in the traditional agrarian society, and the population size, with significant accretions accrued in the previous warm phase, could not be sustained by the shrinking resource base. The stressed human-nature relationship generated a ‘push force’, leading to more frequent wars between states, regions and tribes, which could lead to the collapse of dynasties and collapses of human population size. War frequencies varied according to geographical locations (North, Central and South China) due to spatial variations in the physical environment and hence differential response to climatic change. Moreover, war occurrences demonstrated an obvious time lag after an episode of temperature fall, and the three geographical regions experienced different length of time lags. This research also shows that human population increases and collapses were correlated with the climatic phases and the social instabilities that were induced by climate changes during the last millennium. The findings proposed a new interpretation of human-nature relationship in the past, with implications for the impacts of anomalous global warming on future human conflicts.     

Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle

Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO₂ changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ??geoengineering?? proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale.     

Averaging Intervals For Spectral Analysis Of Nonstationary Turbulence

We formulate a method for determining the smallest time interval Tover which a turbulence time series can be averaged to decompose it intoinstantaneous mean and random components. From the random part the method defines the optimal interval (or averaging window) AW over which this part should be averaged to obtain the instantaneous spectrum. Both T and AW vary randomly with time and depend on physical properties of the turbulence. T also depends on the accuracy of the measurements and is thus independent of AW. Interesting features of the method are its real-time capability and the non-equality between AW and T.     

Α mass-reduction design concept for seismic hazard mitigation

A mass reduction concept for seismic hazard mitigation is investigated herein. The proposed method is implemented through floating slabs, ie, slabs that have been seismically isolated from the skeleton of the structure. The investigation is based on time history analyses of MDOF models under scaled strong-motion seismic records complying with an EC8 spectrum. The purpose of these slabs is twofold; for selected short isolation periods, they act as a mass-damping system for the overall response of the structure, employing significantly more mass than traditional TMDs, while for longer isolation periods they provide seismic protection on their contents while effectively reducing the seismic mass of the structure. In the latter case, it is found that the response of the skeleton can be evaluated accurately from a corresponding reduced-mass model. The proposed design method does not necessarily aim at replacing existing seismic design approaches; it rather provides design versatility in the hands of the practicing engineers.     

Principal axes of M-DOF structures Part Ⅱ: Dynamic loading

This paper is the second in a two-part series that discusses the principal axes of M-DOF structures subjected to static and dynamic loads. The primary purpose of this series is to understand the magnitude of the dynamic response of structures to enable better design of structures and response modification devices/systems. Under idealized design conditions, the structural responses are obtained by using single direction input ground motions in the direction of the intended response modification devices/systems, and by assuming that the responses of the structure is decoupleable in three mutually perpendicular directions. This standard practice has been applied to both new and retrofitted structures using various seismic protective systems. Very limited information is available on the effects of neglecting the impact of directional couplings (cross effects of which torsion is a component) of the dynamic response of structures. In order to quantify such effects, it is necessary to examine the principal axes of structures under both static and dynamic loading. In this two-part series, the first paper is concerned with static loading, which provides definitions and fundamental formulations, with the conclusion that cross effects of a statically loaded M-DOF structure resulting from the lack of principal axes are of insignificant magnitude. However, under dynamic or earthquake loading, a relatively small amount of energy transferred across perpendicular directions is accumulated, which may result in significant enlargement of the structural response. This paper deals with a formulation to define the principal axes of M-DOF structures under dynamic loading and develops quantitative measures to identify cross effects resulting from the non-existence of principal axes.     

Late Cryogenian glaciation in South Australia:Fluctuating ice margin and no extreme or rapid post-glacial sea-level rise

Postulated extreme sea-level rise of up to 1-1.5 km with the late Cryogenian Ghaub deglaciation in Namibia is contentious,as is the great rapidity(<104 yr)of the sea-level rise.Such extreme glacioeustatic events,if real,would have been global and affected all continents.In South Australia,up to six glacial advances and retreats during the late Cryogenian Elatina glaciation indicate a fluctuating ice margin.The latter stage of the Elatina glaciation and the immediate post-glacial environment are examined here for evidence of extreme and rapid sea-level rise.In the central Adelaide Rift Complex,diamictite with faceted and striated clasts occurs at the top of the Elatina Formation<1-2 m beneath the early Ediacaran Nuccaleena Formation’cap carbonate’.One hundred kilometres to the south,~30 m of siltstone and sandstone followed by^6 m of clast-poor diamictite with clasts 10+cm long occur between tidal rhythmites and the cap carbonate.Three hundred kilo metres further south,~70 m of siltsto ne,dolo mitic siltstone and minor dolomite separate tidal rhythmites and early Ediacaran strata.Hence the rhythmites were deposited during a high stand(interstadial or interglacial),not during post-glacial sea-level rise.Storm-generated erosional surfaces within tidal rhythmites at Warren Gorge indicate intermittent rhythmite deposition,and water depth and other palaeoenvironmental factors are uncertain,casting doubt on a published estimate of rapid sea-level rise during rhythmite deposition.The lack of late Cryogenian deeply incised valleys and thick valley-fill deposits in South Australia and central Australia argues against extreme sea-level variations.A hiatus occurred between Elatina deglaciation and deposition of the Nuccaleena cap carbonate,and three palaeomagnetic polarity chrons identified in the cap carbonate imply slow deposition spanning 10^5-10^6 yr.This is supported by independent evidence from magnetic chronostratigraphy for Ediacaran strata in South Australia and California,and by stratigraphic and sedimentological arguments for condensed deposition of cap carbonates.It is concluded that neither extreme nor rapid sea-level rise was associated with late Cryogenian deglaciation in South Australia.     

A two-level perturbation method for connecting unstable periodic orbits with low fuel cost and short time of flight: application to a lunar observation mission

The proposed method connects two unstable periodic orbits by employing trajectories of their associated invariant manifolds that are perturbed in two levels. A first level of velocity perturbations is applied on the trajectories of the discretized manifolds at the points where they approach the nominal unstable periodic orbit in order to accelerate them. A second level of structured velocity perturbations is applied to trajectories that have already been subjected to first level perturbations in order to approximately meet the necessary conditions for a low \(\varDelta \text {V}\) transfer. Due to this two-level perturbation approach, the number of the trajectories obtained is significantly larger compared with approaches that employ traditional invariant manifolds. For this reason, the problem of connecting two unstable periodic orbits through perturbed trajectories of their manifolds is transformed into an equivalent discrete optimization problem that is solved with a very low computational complexity algorithm that is proposed in this paper. Finally, the method is applied to a lunar observation mission of practical interest and is found to perform considerably better in terms of \(\varDelta \text {V}\) cost and time of flight when compared with previous techniques applied to the same project.     

In-flight Performance of the Advanced Camera for Surveys CCDs

The Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS), installed in the Hubble Space telescope in March 2002, will significantly extend HST's deep, survey imaging capabilities. ACS has met, or exceeded, all of its key performance specifications. In this paper we briefly review the in-flight performance of the instrument's CCD detectors and preview early ACS science observations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Magnetograms at 12 μm Using the Celeste Spectrograph

We present the first solar vector magnetogram constructed from measurements of infra-red Mg I 12.32-μm line spectra. Observations were made at the McMath-Pierce Telescope using the Celeste spectrometer/polarimeter. Zeeman-split Stokes line spectra were fitted with Seares profiles to obtain the magnetic field parameters. Maps of absolute field strength, line-of-sight angle, and azimuth are presented. Analysis shows that the variation in field strength within a spatial resolution element, 2 arcseconds, is greatest in the sunspot penumbra and that this is most likely caused by vertical field strength gradients, rather than horizontal image smearing. Widths of the Zeeman-split σ components, assuming a formation layer thickness of 200 km, indicate that vertical field strength gradients can be as large as 6.5 G/km in a penumbra.     

On Internal Gravity Waves Associated with the Stable Boundary Layer

The stable planetary boundary layer at the baseof the residual layer supports internalwaves that are unambiguously boundary layer incharacter. Some of these wavesare instabilities and some are neutrally stable modes, but they all have critical levelsin the residual layer. These waves exist for a broad range of conditions and should bea major component of any ducted disturbance that propagates within ninety degreesof the wind direction. The wave properties can be computed without the numericaldifficulties usually associated with critical-level systems.