First record of palynofossils from the Fulra Limestone Formation (Middle Eocene) of Kachchh basin,Gujarat and their palaeoenvironmental implications

The present paper deals with the first record of a palynofloral assemblage recovered from the Fulra Limestone Formation exposed at the confluence of Fulra and Panandhro Nalas in the west of Babia hill, Kachchh basin, Gujarat. The recovered palynoflora consists of dinoflagellate cysts, fungal spores and ascostromata, pteridophyte spores, gymnosperm and angiosperm pollen. Some of the important constituents of the palynofloral assemblage are: Lygodiumsporites, Polypodiaceasporites, Polypodiisporites, Margocolporites, Tricolporopilites, Tricolporopollis, Graminidites, Aplanosporites, Phragmothyrites, Spiniferites, Operculodinium and Achomosphaera. Palynological data suggest that the Fulra Limestone Formation was mostly laid down in a shallow marine environment under a warm and humid tropical climate. Abundance of terrestrial palynofossils in some of the samples clearly points towards the relative proximity of the shore. A late middle Eocene age has been assigned for the Fulra Limestone Formation on the basis of recorded palynofossils.     

Soil responses near Delhi ridge and adjacent regions in Greater Delhi during incidence of a local earthquake

In this study, soil response was carried out for the Greater Delhi region. A folded Proterozoic formation was identified as Delhi ridge, passes through its central part along SSW–NNE direction, and appears to be a main geomorphic feature for the study area. The Delhi ridge is an exposed quartzite rock of about 10–100 m wide and ~25 km long with gentler dipping both toward east and west. We have considered the exposed part as an outcrop side near the ridge axis and the dipping area as rigid base away from the ridge axis for ground motion study during the occurrence of the 25 November 2007 earthquake with magnitude M _L 4.3 (Richter scale) that occurred at Delhi–Haryana State boundary. The degree of shaking was very strong and reported major cracks in the buildings near the epicenter area. We have studied the soil response parameters at the surface level, considering horizontally stratified soil layers above rigid base. The equivalent linear method was used for soil response analysis at 25 sites in Greater Delhi area. The peak amplification factors vary from 3.2 to 5.9 and peak resonance frequency varies from 1.2 to 5.3 Hz. The correlation among the peak amplification factor (A) and frequency (f) was empirically established as A = 0.36f + 3.60. Increasing peak amplification factor was found at sites with increasingly thicker alluvium deposit with lower frequency contains ground motion and vice versa. Seismic zoning map was also reconstructed for peak amplification factors and predominant periods for the study area for the mitigation purposes of earthquake damage. The average shear wave velocity up to 30 m soil depth is also obtained for site classification. The average velocity to 30 m [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] is a widely used parameter for classifying sites for predicting their potentiality to amplify seismic shaking. A lower value [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] thus yields a more conservative estimate of ground motion, which generally increases as $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ decreases. Present estimate of $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ varies from 315 to 419 m/s. In this study, we have identified two site classes C and D, as per National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The city planner or engineers can directly use these data for site-specific assessment during retrofitting of the existing structure, demolition of the old buildings and design a new structure to avoid major destruction of the buildings due to future earthquake.     

Seismic velocity imaging of the Kumaon–Garhwal Himalaya,India

Natural Hazards - Since the initial collision at 55 Ma, rocks of the Indian crust below the Himalayas have undergone modification chemically and compositionally due to the ongoing...     

A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum.     

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model

This study has identified probable factors that govern ISMR predictability. Furthermore, extensive analysis has been performed to evaluate factors leading to the predictability aspect of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) using uncoupled and coupled version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (CFS). It has been found that the coupled version (CFS) has outperformed the uncoupled version [Global Forecast System (GFS)] of the model in terms of prediction of rainfall over Indian land points. Even the spatial distribution of rainfall is much better represented in the CFS as compared to that of GFS. Even though these model skills are inadequate for the reliable forecasting of monsoon, it imparts the capacious knowledge about the model fidelity. The mean monsoon features and its evolution in terms of rainfall and large-scale circulation along with the zonal and meridional shear of winds, which govern the strength of the monsoon, are relatively closer to the observation in the CFS as compared to the GFS. Furthermore, sea surface temperature–rainfall relation is fairly realistic and intense in the coupled version of the model (CFS). It is found that the CFS is able to capture El Niño Southern Oscillation ISMR (ENSO-ISMR) teleconnections much strongly as compared to GFS; however, in the case of Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR teleconnections, GFS has the larger say. Coupled models have to be fine-tuned for the prediction of the transition of El Niño as well as the strength of the mature phase has to be improved. Thus, to sum up, CFS tends to have better predictive skill on account of following three factors: (a) better ability to replicate mean features, (b) comparatively better representation of air–sea interactions, and (c) much better portrayal of ENSO-ISMR teleconnections. This study clearly brings out that coupled model is the only way forward for improving the ISMR prediction skill. However, coupled model’s spurious representation of SST variability and mean model bias are detrimental in seasonal prediction.     

Intercomparison among plasma wake models for plasmaspheric and ionospheric conditions

Intercomparisons are made among the angular distributions of ions in the wake of a body moving through a space plasma as computed from three different expressions (models). Both subsonic and supersonic relative flows are considered in order to examine the wake current depletion ratios under conditions realistic for the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere. Results of these comparisons demonstrate the importance of including the thermal flux at low Mach numbers and of taking into account the angular acceptance of ion detectors in making theory-experiment comparisons. Gradients in the angular variations of the fluxes are found to be steeper near the wake-ambient interface than closer to the maximum rarefaction region of all models, although quantitatively there is considerable variation among the models. From examining the variations of the wake depletion ratio parametrically with Mach number and normalized potential over ranges characteristic of the plasmasphere and topside ionosphere, we find considerable variation with both parameters, with sensitivity to normalized potential increasing dramatically with Mach number. Overall, however, the Mach number variation appears to be the more significant over this range of parameters.     

Comparison of theory and in situ observations for electron and ion distributions in the near wake of the explorer 31 and AE-C satellites

Measurements of electron density, plasma potential, and mean ion mass from the Explorer 31 satellite and measurements of ion current, plasma potential, and ion composition from the Atmosphere Explorer C (AE-C) satellite were used in a comparative study with theory regarding the charged particle distribution in the near wake of an ionospheric satellite. The theoretical wake model of Parker (1976) has been used in the study. It is shown that theory and experiment agree fairly well in the angle-of-attack range between 90 and 135°. In that angular range even the neutral approximation (which treats ions as if they were neutral particles thus ignoring the influence of the electric field) gives fair agreement with the measurements. In the maximum rarefaction zone (145 < θ < 180°), however, the theoretical model overestimates the measured ion depletion (AE-C measurements) by several orders of magnitude. A similar conclusion is drawn from the comparison between theory and the Explorer 31 electron measurements where the theory also significantly overestimates the electron depletion. The study indicates that the discrepancies are mainly due to the use of a steady-state theory and of a single ion equation (using a mean ion mass). It is recommended that improved agreement between theory and experiment be obtained by the use of the timedependent Vlasov-Poisson equations with separate equations for the various ion species.     

Variation of ambient SO2 over Delhi

The temporal variation of ambient SO₂ and the chemical composition of particulate matters (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) were studied at National Physical Laboratory (NPL), New Delhi (28°38′N, 77°10′E). Spatial variation of SO₂ at seven air quality monitoring stations over Delhi was also studied simultaneously. Wide range of ambient SO₂ was recorded during winter (2.55 to 17.43 ppb) compare to other seasons. SO₂ mixing ratio was recorded significantly high at industrial sites during winter and summer; however, no significant spatial difference in SO₂ mixing ratio was recorded during monsoon. SO ₄ ^2? /(SO₂+SO ₄ ^2? ) ratio was recorded high (0.74) during winter and low (0.69) during summer. Monthly variation of PSCF was analyzed using HYSPLIT seven days backward trajectories and daily average SO₂ data. PSCF analysis suggests that, during winter (December, January, February) ambient SO₂ at the study site might have contributed from long distance sources, located towards west and southwest directions; during monsoon (July, August, September) marine contribution was noticed; whereas, during summer (April, May and June) it was from regional sources (located within few 100 km of study site). During winter there was significant contribution from the long distance sources located in western Asia, northwestern Pakistan, Rajasthan and Punjab provinces of India. Coal used in thermal power plants at Panipat (in the northwestern side) and Faridabad (in the southeastern side), local industries, soil erosion and biomass burning may be major contributing factors for SO₂ during summer. The study establishes that the transport sector may not be the major source of ambient SO₂ in Delhi.