Peak runoff contributing area as hydrological signature of the probability distribution of floods

For the analysis of hydrological extremes and particularly in flood prediction, deeper investigation is needed on the relative effects of different hydrological processes acting at the basin scale in different hydroclimatic areas of the world. In this framework, the theoretical derivation of flood distribution shows a great potential for development and knowledge advancement. In addition, another promising path of investigation is represented by the use of distributed hydrological models via simulation modelling (including Monte Carlo, discrete event and continuous simulation). In this paper results of a theoretically derived flood frequency distribution are analyzed and compared with the results of a simulation scheme that uses a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP). The numerical simulation allows the reproduction of a large number of extreme events and provides insight into the main control for flood generation mechanisms with particular emphasis to the peak runoff contributing areas, highlighting the relevance of soil texture and morphology in different climatic environments. The proposed methodology is applied here to the Agri and the Bradano basin, in Southern Italy.     

Migration and shortening rates in the northern Apennines,Italy: implications for seismic hazard

Is compression across the northern Apennine fold‐and‐thrust system (Italy) still active? To address this question, we quantified the long‐term rates of migration and shortening of the system along with the measurement errors. Our approach integrates structural geology, seismicity patterns, and statistical treatment of tectonic activity. On the basis of recently published surface and subsurface data, we found a migration rate of 8.85 ± 0.61 mm yr⁻¹. The inception age of individual fold structures follow closely this average rate, indicating that the system has been migrating at a constant rate for the past 17 Myr. Cumulative shortening of the system also increases linearly through time at 2.93 ± 0.31 mm yr⁻¹. The location of the youngest structures in the easternmost portion of the system coincides with a significant peak of seismic moment released by historical earthquakes. We conclude that not only these easternmost thrusts are still active, but also that they generate earthquakes.     

Quadrupolar gravitational radiation as a test-bed for f(R)-gravity

The debate concerning the viability of f(R)-gravity as a natural extension of General Relativity could be realistically addressed by using results coming from binary pulsars like PSR 1913 + 16. To this end, we develop a quadrupolar approach to the gravitational radiation for a class of analytic f(R)-models. We show that experimental results are compatible with a consistent range of f(R)-models. This means that f(R)-gravity is not ruled out by the observations and gravitational radiation (in strong field regime) could be a test-bed for such theories.     

An inverse procedure to estimate transmissivity from heads and SP signals

Experimental hydraulic heads and electrical (self-potential) signals associated with a pumping test were used in an inverse model to estimate the transmissivity distribution of a real aquifer. Several works reported in the literature show that there is a relatively good linear relationship between the hydraulic heads in the aquifer and electrical signals measured at the ground surface. In this experimental test field, first, the current coupling coefficient was determined by the best fit between experimental and modeled self-potential signals at the end of the pumping phase. Soon afterward, with the hydraulic heads obtained from the self-potential signals, the transmissivity distribution of the aquifer was conditioned by means an inverse model based on the successive linear estimator (SLE). To further substantiate the estimated T field from the SLE analysis, we analyzed the drawdown rate, the derivative of the drawdown with respect to the ln(t), because the drawdown rate is highly sensitive to the variability in the transmissivity field. In our opinion, these results show that self-potential signals allow the monitoring of subsurface flow in the course of pumping experiments, and that electrical potentials serve as a good complement to piezometric observations to condition and characterize the transmissivity distribution of an aquifer.     

A numerical approach to estimate shaft friction of bored piles in sands

A new approach to estimate shaft capacity of bored piles in sandy soils, based on numerical analysis, is presented. The topic is relevant as current design methods often largely underestimate the shaft capacity of piles in sands, thus resulting in an over-conservative design. The proposed approach is based on explicitly modelling the thin cylinder of soil surrounding the pile, where strain localization concentrates (shear band), and on the fundamental mechanic behaviour of sandy soils (e.g. dilatancy, softening). This approach is both simple and easy to apply. Results of a broad parametric study involving axially loaded single piles embedded in different sandy soils are presented, highlighting that relative density and grain size distribution mainly affect the shaft capacity. The capability of the procedure to predict shaft friction is checked against data from a well-documented full-scale axial load test on instrumented pile. Some suggestions for calibration and application of the method are also reported.     

Dynamic response and optimal design of structures with large mass ratio TMD

This paper investigates the dynamic behavior and the seismic effectiveness of a non‐conventional Tuned Mass Damper (TMD) with large mass ratio. Compared with conventional TMD, the device mass is increased up to be comparable with the mass of the structure to be protected, aiming at a better control performance. In order to avoid the introduction of an excessive additional weight, masses already present on the structure are converted into tuned masses, retaining structural or architectural functions beyond the mere control function. A reduced order model is introduced for design purposes and the optimal design of a large mass ratio TMD for seismic applications is then formulated. The design method is specifically developed to implement High‐Damping Rubber Bearings (HDRB) to connect the device mass to the main structure, taking advantage of combining stiffness and noticeable damping characteristics. Ground acceleration is modeled as a Gaussian random process with white noise power spectral density. A numerical searching technique is used to obtain the optimal design parameter, the frequency ratio alpha, which minimizes the root‐mean‐square displacement response of the main structure. The study finally comprises shaking table tests on a 1:5 scale model under a wide selection of accelerograms, both artificial and natural, to assess the seismic effectiveness of the proposed large mass ratio TMD. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A case study of mollusc and polychaete soft-bottom assemblages submitted to sedimentary instability in the Mediterranean Sea

In the Strait of Messina (Sicily, Central Mediterranean Sea) strong tidal currents, very irregular hydrological regime and related solid load, and local seismic activity cause sediment instability; this area represents therefore a case‐study of a naturally disturbed soft‐bottom environment. In this paper, mollusc and polychaete assemblages of the northern part of the Strait were described. Composition, community structure, eco‐ethological features, trophic guilds and sediment‐type relationships were studied in 64 stations sampled located between 3.5 and 50 m depth in October 1992 by means of a Van Veen grab. A total of 131 species (65 molluscs and 66 polychaetes) were identified. A dense population of the tubicolous polychaete Ditrupa arietina was recognized, together with the occurrence of other species tied to a high sedimentation rate, such as Corbula gibba and Tellina distorta, as well as widespread, mud‐tolerant species (e.g.Chone spp., Hyalinoecia tubicola). Diversity (H′) showed a peak at intermediate depths (10/20 m) and a clear decrease beyond this depth, corresponding to the Ditrupa core population. Multivariate comparison between sediment features and community composition throughout the bathymetric gradient showed a narrow ecocline between two environments subjected to opposite hydrodynamic constraints. In the shallower zone, a wide typology of trophic‐ethological guilds was related to community patchiness, in contrast to a greater functional uniformity of the deeper assemblage, dominated by sessile, semi‐infaunal suspension feeders. A possible role played by a phase of increased rainfall to increase bottom instability, locally emphasized by a previous human activity, is also discussed.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Flow time estimation with spatially variable hillslope velocity in ungauged basins

The automated spatial estimation of the hillslope runoff dynamics is used as a valuable tool for the estimation of the travel time distribution (flow time), a major factor for the hydrologic prediction in ungauged basins. In fact, while the flow time function is usually obtained by rescaling the flow paths with constant channel and hillslope velocities, in this work a spatially distributed kinematic component, as a function of terrain features and in particular slope and land use, is implemented and its influence on the hydrologic response is tested by means of the Width Function Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (WFIUH) framework. Hillslope surface flow velocities are evaluated by applying different uniform flow formulas within an automated DEM-based (terrain analysis) algorithm. A comparison test of the performances of the Manning, Darcy, Maidment and Soil Conservation Service uniform flow equations is performed for several case studies in Italy pertaining to different climatic and geomorphic conditions. Results provide new insights for a better understanding of the flow time function also introducing a more parsimonious and physically-based calibration scheme of the WFIUH.