Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.     

Intervening O vi Quasar Absorption Systems at Low Redshift: A Significant Baryon Reservoir

Far-UV echelle spectroscopy of the radio-quiet QSO H1821+643 (zem=0.297), obtained with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) at approximately 7 km s-1 resolution, reveals four definite O vi absorption-line systems and one probable O vi absorber at 0.15相似文献   

The Influence of Aircraft Speed Variations on Sensible Heat-Flux Measurements by Different Airborne Systems

Crawford et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 66:237–245, 1993) showed that the time average is inappropriate for airborne eddy-covariance flux calculations. The aircraft’s ground speed through a turbulent field is not constant. One reason can be a correlation with vertical air motion, so that some types of structures are sampled more densely than others. To avoid this, the time-sampled data are adjusted for the varying ground speed so that the modified estimates are equivalent to spatially-sampled data. A comparison of sensible heat-flux calculations using temporal and spatial averaging methods is presented and discussed. Data of the airborne measurement systems $\hbox {M}^2\hbox {AV}$ , Helipod and Dornier 128-6 are used for the analysis. These systems vary in size, weight and aerodynamic characteristics, since the $\hbox {M}^2\hbox {AV}$ is a small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the Helipod a helicopter-borne turbulence probe and the Dornier 128-6 a manned research aircraft. The systematic bias anticipated in covariance computations due to speed variations was neither found when averaging over Dornier, Helipod nor UAV flight legs. However, the random differences between spatial and temporal averaging fluxes were found to be up to 30 % on the individual flight legs.     

Rapid spread of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi across Europe: a consequence of climate change?

Numerous species are expanding their ranges towards the North Pole, a pattern that is usually explained with climate change. However, few studies have actually tested the potential role of climate in such range expansions. Here, we studied the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi, which has multiplied its range in Central and Northern Europe during the 20th century and is still spreading. Using current and historical climate data, we analysed whether this spread can be explained by climate warming, increasing cold tolerance or if it is unrelated to temperature. Spatial partial regression showed that the spread of A. bruennichi into formerly cooler areas is independent of spatial autocorrelation, indicating that it is driven by temperature. Some aspects of the spread, as e.g. the patchy distribution at the beginning of the century are likely to be relicts of climate fluctuations before our study period. From the middle of the 20th century until the 1980s, A. bruennichi was recorded from gradually cooler climates, while temperature was relatively constant. This indicates that A. bruennichi either increased its cold tolerance or that the spread continued with a time lag following an earlier warming event, due to dispersal limitation. In the last two decades, temperature rose sharply. The temperatures at which A. bruennichi was newly recorded increased as well, indicating that the spider is dispersal limited and that the spread will continue even in the absence of further climate warming.     

Silicon isotope fractionation during magmatic differentiation

The Si isotopic composition of Earth’s mantle is thought to be homogeneous (δ³⁰Si = −0.29 ± 0.08‰, 2 s.d.) and not greatly affected by partial melting and recycling. Previous analyses of evolved igneous material indicate that such rocks are isotopically heavy relative to the mantle. To understand this variation, it is necessary to investigate the degree of Si isotopic fractionation that takes place during magmatic differentiation. Here we report Si isotopic compositions of lavas from Hekla volcano, Iceland, which has formed in a region devoid of old, geochemically diverse crust. We show that Si isotopic composition varies linearly as a function of silica content, with more differentiated rocks possessing heavier isotopic compositions. Data for samples from the Afar Rift Zone, as well as various igneous USGS standards are collinear with the Hekla trend, providing evidence of a fundamental relationship between magmatic differentiation and Si isotopes. The effect of fractionation has been tested by studying cumulates from the Skaergaard Complex, which show that olivine and pyroxene are isotopically light, and plagioclase heavy, relative to the Si isotopic composition of the Earth’s mantle. Therefore, Si isotopes can be utilised to model the competing effects of mafic and felsic mineral fractionation in evolving silicate liquids and cumulates.At an average SiO₂ content of ∼60 wt.%, the predicted δ³⁰Si value of the continental crust that should result from magmatic fractionation alone is −0.23 ± 0.05‰ (2 s.e.), barely heavier than the mantle. This is, at most, a maximum estimate, as this does not take into account weathered material whose formation drives the products toward lighter δ³⁰Si values. Mass balance calculations suggest that removal of continental crust of this composition from the upper mantle will not affect the Si isotopic composition of the mantle.     

Seismicity in the Rotorua and Kawerau geothermal systems,Taupo Volcanic Zone,New Zealand,based on improved velocity models and cross-correlation measurements

We analyze earthquakes occurring in and around the Rotorua and Kawerau geothermal systems, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. The two data sets contain 504 and 1875 shallow (≤ 20 km deep) earthquakes, respectively, and span the 21 year period between 1984 and 2004. The arrival time data for these earthquakes are first used to calculate 1-D P- and S-wave seismic velocity models and accompanying station correction terms for both areas. In order to address the non-uniqueness of the joint hypocenter-velocity model estimation problem, we analyze suites of 1000 velocity models computed from random initial models. The final velocity models are well constrained, particularly at depths between 4 and 15 km, and consistent with the results obtained in previous seismic refraction studies of the central Taupo Volcanic Zone. Using a combination of cross-correlation-derived and catalog-based arrival times, we relocate subsets of the Rotorua and Kawerau data sets. In Rotorua, the relocated earthquakes cluster near the geothermally active parts of Rotorua City and beneath the Mount Ngongotaha rhyolite dome. Earthquake clusters and alignments reveal seismogenic structures in the mid-crust whose positions and geometries are consistent with previously published fault mechanisms and known near-surface faults. In Kawerau, the earthquakes within the geothermal field align along northeast-trending lineations, consistent with the predominant alignment of surface-mapped faults in the area.