Effect of altered Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet cover on the climate of the GENESIS general circulation model

Previous studies have examined the effect of reduced Arctic sea ice cover on the circulation of climate models. Generally, the response is restricted to high northern latitudes. Here we examine a variant on those simulations, specifying both reduced Arctic sea ice cover and no Greenland ice sheet. The GENESIS general circulation model is used in these experiments. As in earlier studies, we find the effect limited primarily to the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, being greater in winter than in summer. New results reported herein involve: (1) in winter reduced Arctic ice cover has a significantly greater effect than reduced Greenland ice cover; (2) reduced ice cover had little effect on location of the winter freezing line over North America and Eurasia; (3) removal of ice caused a 30–50% increase in precipitation in high northern latitudes; however there were no significant effects elsewhere. This result does not support the hypothesis that past changes in Arctic ice cover were responsible for significant changes in area of tropical rainforests; (4) there is a peculiar surface pressure anomaly that extends into the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. This anomaly may be a spurious artifact of the effect of the removed Greenland ice sheet on the spherical harmonic expansion terms in the model. These sensitivity experiments should serve as a useful frame of reference for future Pliocene simulations with a more complete set of altered boundary conditions.     

Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA

To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics.     

Effect of obstacles on the rate of reconnection of magnetic field lines

Further results of a laboratory magnetic field line reconnection experiment are presented. In particular, it is found that the reconnection rate can be slowed by placing solid obstacles to impede the outflow of plasma from an x-type magnetic neutral point. Without the obstacles the reconnection rate is faster and more impulsive. The fastest reconnection event has strong similarities to solar flares and geomagnetic substorms. It is suggested that more stationary features of solar activity such as prominences may be the result of reconnection slowed by obstacles such as the photosphere.     

一种基于最短优先的最短路径算法的实现

最短路径问题作为GIS分析中的一个主要内容而被广泛深入地进行研究。本文在设计一种网络数据结构的基础上, 通过一种基于节点与弧段标号的最短优先路径搜索策略, 设计并实现了一种结构简单、便于理解并且高效的最短路径求解算法。     

断裂引起的应变量计算方法

本文介绍了断裂引起的应变量计算方法。断裂作用可导致连续应变和非连续应变。连续应变与断裂位移,断裂长度比值及断裂面上有效应力成正相关关系。影响非连续应变的因素有：断裂几何形态、断裂的旋转性、断裂规模。已经提出三种断裂旋转机制：刚性旋转,垂直剪切和斜向剪切。对于这三种机制,我们分别建立了断裂非连续应变的计算公式。这些公式与断裂的旋转角度和位移大小相关。刚性旋转时,断块内部没有任何塑性变形,因此地层的长度没有变化。它引起的非连续应变最小。垂直剪切作用使断块内地层变形,但水平方向的地层长度不变。推算的公式表明,对于相同的原始数据,它引起的非连续应变比刚性旋转机制引起的非连续应变大。斜向剪切也使断块内地层变形,但水平方向的长度也不变。在同等条件下,它引起的非连续应变比垂直剪切机制引起的非连续应变大。     

基于随机有限元法的溶蚀坝基系统建坝适应性评价

依托溶蚀地基上建坝的典型工程问题,在研究坝基溶蚀空间展布特征的基础上,建立溶蚀带力学参数随机场模型,采用随机有限元方法研究坝体工作性态的统计特性,评价了溶蚀坝基建坝适应性。采用溶蚀带力学参数随机场模型,等效模拟了空间内溶蚀体的无序分布系统,排除地质统计中线溶蚀率的人为假定,避免了以往确定性分析模型中溶蚀体缺失现象。研究方法和成果亦可以为其他相似复杂地基工程的数值分析提供新的思路和参考。     

钻孔应变水位辅助观测标定的探讨

分析了采用"延时法"标定水位带来的不便和产生的误差,总结了新的标定方法—"探头升降法"标定仪器的原理和操作方法,经过几个台站的反复实验,效果很好,精度达99%,有推广价值。     

不同热岛类型的划分方法适用性研究

不同的热岛类型划分方法会得出不同的热环境信息,主流的热岛划分方法主要包括等距法和中误差法两种。本文以咸阳市和兴平市热红外数据为数据源,在采用单窗算法获取研究区热环境信息的基础上,分别采用两种热岛类型划分方法获得了研究区域的热环境信息。研究结果表明:①两种不同划分方法均能有效反映研究样区存在较为明显的城市热岛效应;②等距方法获取的热空间格局中的强热岛区呈点状和小斑块状分布于城镇内部,而中误差方法获取的热空间格局中的强热岛区呈片状分布于城镇内部;③基于等距的划分体系适合于大中城镇构建热环境指标与评价体系;而基于中误差的划分体系更适合于市、县、镇、乡四级热环境指标及其评价体系的构建。     

南海湖沉积物中Hg的形态分布特征

以包头市南海湖为研究对象,采用连续化学提取法,系统开展了沉积物中Hg的形态分布研究。结果表明,表层沉积物中Hg含量的水平分布总体呈现湖心区低,西南和东北部湖区高的趋势。腐殖酸结合态为表层沉积物中Hg的主导形态,次为交换态和水溶态。表层沉积物中生物有效态Hg的含量甚高,占总汞的76%~94%,对整个生态系统具有潜在危害性。沉积柱芯中总Hg表现为表层富集并随深度增加而降低的变化趋势。B、F站位柱状沉积物中腐殖酸结合态Hg随深度有规律的递减,H站位20 cm以上Hg的主导形态为腐殖酸结合态,残渣态次之;20～30 cm的主导形态则为残渣态及可交换态。     

琼北火山岩激光40Ar/39Ar定年研究

新生代以来,雷琼地区多次、大量地喷发了一系列火山岩。前人主要基于K-Ar法对此划分了期次。本文采用激光40Ar/39Ar年代学方法,对琼北火山岩区进行了精细定年研究。低本底激光40Ar/39Ar法能够对低钾含量,极少量样品(毫克级)进行精细测定,非常适合极年轻火山岩的定年工作。结果显示的火山岩激光40Ar/39Ar法高质量数据表明琼北火山喷发活动时限跨越1.3～0.052Ma。在比较了表观年龄与等时线年龄差异之后,本文给出了年龄推荐值。正如测试数据所显示,本地区新生代火山岩普遍存在40Ar和36Ar过剩的问题,此时只有等时线年龄才代表喷发的真实年龄。