Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

Deposition of trace substances via cloud interception on a coniferous forest at Kleiner Feldberg

A resistance model to calculate the deposition of cloud droplets on a coniferous forest and some improved parameterizations of the indispensable input parameters are described. The deposition model is adapted to the coniferous forest at the Kleiner Feldberg site and verified by the data of a drip water monitoring station below the forest canopy. The measurements of liqud water content, wind speed and trace substance compounds in cloud water of the Ground-based Cloud Experiment (GCE) at Kleiner Feldberg in 1990 are used to calculate the cloud water deposition fluxes and the deposition of trace substances via cloud water interception. The calculated deposition of trace substances via cloud water interceptions is three to six times higher than via rain during the experiment. On a long term data basis the yearly amount of cloud water deposition is 180 mm year^–1 at Kleiner Feldberg site (840 m a.s.l.) while the precipitation amount is 1030 mm year^–1. Due to higher trace substance concentrations in cloud water compared to rain the ionic deposition via cloud water interception and via precipitation were assessed to be of comparable magnitude.     

Accretion tectonics and crustal structure in Alaska

The entire width of the North American Cordillera in Alaska is made up of “suspect terranes”. Pre-Late Cretaceous paleogeography is poorly constrained and the ultimate origins of the many fragments which make up the state are unclear. The Prince William and Chugach terranes accreted since Late Cretaceous time and represent the collapse of much of the northeast Pacific Ocean swept into what today is southern Alaska. Greater Wrangellia, a composite terrane now dispersed into fragments scattered from Idaho to southern Alaska, apparently accreted into Alaska in Late Cretaceous time crushing an enormous deep-marine flysch basin on its inboard side. Most of interior eastern Alaska is the Yukon Tanana terrane, a very large entirely fault-bounded metamorphic-plutonic assemblage covering thousands of square kilometers in Canada as well as Alaska. The original stratigraphy and relationship to North America of the Yukon-Tanana terrane are both obscure. A collapsed Mesozoic flysch basin, similar to the one inboard of Wrangellia, lies along the northern margin. Much of Arctic Alaska was apparently a vast expanse of upper Paleozoic to Early Mesozoic deep marine sediments and mafic volcanic and plutonic rocks now scattered widely as large telescoped sheets and Klippen thrust over the Ruby geanticline and the Brooks Range, and probably underlying the Yukon-Koyukuk basin and the Yukon flats. The Brooks Range itself is a stack of north vergent nappes, the telescoping of which began in Early Cretaceous time. Despite compelling evidence for thousands of kilometers of relative displacement between the accreted terranes, and large amounts of telescoping, translation, and rotation since accretion, the resulting new continental crust added to North America in Alaska carries few obvious signatures that allow application of currently popular simple plate tectonic models. Intraplate telescoping and strike-slip translations, delamination at mid-crustal levels, and large-scale lithospheric wedging were important processes in northern Cordilleran tectonic evolution.     

Power spectrum of brightness temperature fluctuations derived from solar eclipse observations at 2.8 GHz

In this paper we report on the MEM power spectrum analysis of brightness temperature fluctuations observed at 2.8 GHz during the total solar eclipse of 16 February 1980. The observed periodicities range from 3.5 min to 64 min. These periodicities may arise due to spatial and/or temporal variations in the solar radio emission. The observed periodicities imply presence of scale sizes ranging from 70,000 to 600,000 km assuming that the brightness fluctuations arise because of spatial variation only. On the other hand, if these fluctuations are due to temporal variation, the observed periodicities correspond well to predicted modes of solar global oscillations.     

Adding the missing third and fourth dimensions to trajectory analysis in carbonate systems

We developed a seismic geomorphology-based procedure to enhance traditional trajectory analysis with the ability to visualize and quantify lateral variability along carbonate prograding-margin types (ramps and rimmed shelves) in 3D and 4D. This quantitative approach analysed the shelf break geometric evolution of the Oligo-Miocene carbonate clinoform system in the Browse Basin and delineated the feedback between antecedent topography and carbonate system response as controlling factor on shelf break rugosity. Our geometrical analysis identified a systematic shift in the large-scale average shelf break strike direction over a transect of 10 km from 62° to 55° in the Oligo-Miocene interval of the Browse Basin, which is likely controlled by far-field allogenic forcing from the Timor Trough collision zone. Plotting of 3D shelf break trajectories represents a convenient way to visualize the lateral variability in shelf break evolution. Shelf break trajectories that indicate contemporaneous along-strike progradation and retrogradation correlate with phases of autogenic slope system re-organization and may be a proxy for morphological stability of the shelf break. Shelf break rugosity and shelf break trajectory rugosity are not inherited parameters and antecedent topography does not dictate long-term differential movement of the shelf margin through successive depositional sequences. The autogenic carbonate system response to antecedent topography smooths high-rugosity areas by filling accommodation and maintains a relatively constant shelf break rugosity of ~150 m. Color-coding of the vertical component in the shelf break trajectory captures the creation and filling of accommodation, and highlights areas of the transect that are likely to yield inconsistent 2D sequence stratigraphic interpretations.     

Quantifying soil variability in GIS applications: II Spatial distribution of soil properties

Abstract

Application of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to environmental problems requires a spatial delineation of soil properties and some a priori knowledge of their variability. In the U.S.A. estimated soil properties are available from soil surveys published by the National Cooperative Soil Survey. However, information on the extent and nature of their variability is generally lacking. To remedy the situation, variability of selected soil properties measured at farm and watershed scales was compared with published values using geostatistical methods. Results showed that the variability of bulk density and hydraulic conductivity can be estimated by comparing regularized variograms of measured and published values. An overlay method was proposed that combines measured and published delineations of soil properties into an overlay with the properties of both. The technique makes it possible to incorporate variability into a GIS analysis using data available from published soil surveys.     

On the magnetism of stars and planets

A self-consistent statistical approach to the problem of planetary and stellar magnetism is suggested. The mechanism of magnetic field generation in the astronomical objects, where the existence of fields is associated with the axial rotation of objects, is discussed. In the general case the light pressure, the centrifugal, gravitational and other forces produce partial -separation of the charges. As a result of the system rotation, the magnetic fields of the currents of these charges are not compensated. The influence of various factors on the magnetic field of some object is analysed.     

河北平原水系密度与隐伏活动构造的关系

以1926年出版的比例尺为1：5万的顺直地形图作为基础图件，用地理信息系统技术对河北平原作水系密度计量分析，揭示隐伏在第四纪巨厚的沉积物之下活动构造的信息，研究结果证实水系线密度统计图与使用其它地球科学方法获得的成果，例如基底活动断块图，地貌类型图和第四纪厚度图都有很好的对应，特别与布格重力图对应更好，研究结果发现水系密度图与布格重力异常图在总体一致性较好的前提下，多处反向异常区均为近代强震发生的区域，提出这种地表水系密度统计研究的成果不仅可以揭示深部隐伏的活动构造，而且具有较明确的时间含义。     

Tsunamis as geological agents

When a tsunami wave series approaches and interacts with a coast, the consequent passage shorewards of great volumes of water and their invasion of the land, especially within bays and up river valleys, results in the disturbance of existing sediment and the removal seawards of land debris and coastal and shallow‐water marine sediments. Tsunami action builds up sequences of peculiar sediments in shallow water; it at least assists in the formation and maintenance of submarine canyons and, through them, produces turbidity currents of a particularly powerful kind. Tsunami action may explain many puzzling sedimentary phenomena, for example, sudden and drastic changes in near‐shore bathymetry; the formation of chaotic sediments such as some paraconglomerates and edgewise conglomerates. It offers solutions to problems arising from the study of turbiditic sequences, both modern and ancient.