Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains

Abstract

This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010–2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25–1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Garcia, E.S. and Loáiciga, H.A., 2013. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 204–220.     

Symplectic Mappings of Co-orbital Motion in the Restricted Problem of Three Bodies

The dynamics of co-orbital motion in the restricted three-body problem are investigated by symplectic mappings. Analytical and semi-numerical mappings have been developed and studied in detail. The mappings have been tested by numerical integration of the equations of motion. These mappings have been proved to be useful for a quick determination of the phase space structure reflecting the main characteristics of the dynamics of the co-orbital problem.     

THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL MODELING OF COHESIVE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT BY TIDAL CURRENT IN PEARL RIVER ESTUARV

IINTRODUCTIONEstUariesareprominentcoastalfeatUres.Estuariesareofgreateconomicssignificancetomankind.Attheseareas,manyharborsandwaterchannelshavetobebuiltforeconomicpurposes.ThedesignandconstrUctionofcoastalstrUctUresinestUariesrequireknowledgeofhydrodynamicsaswellassedimenttransportinsuchregions.ThenatUreofestuariesiscontrolledbyvariouscoastalhydrodynamicprocesses.Undertheactionofhydrodynamics,sedimentdepositionsorerosionswilloccurinestuariesornearcoastalstrUCtures.Tomaintainnavigati…     

Soil survey of command area for planning of water management: A case study of an area in Hardoi district,U.P.

Development of irrigation potential for increasing agricultural production is the main aim of Command Area Development. This involves interaction amongst various factors; the soil, the crop, the climate, the topograpny and others. Water management in Command Area requires careful planning, based upon adequate data regarding soils, land use and topography. It is essential to make the best possible use of the available water without creating waterlogging, salinity and alkalinity problems in the command area. The use of aerial photographs is a well recognized expedient, convenient and economical method of data collection, which appreciably suits the requirement of the survey of Command Areas. As large areas have to be surveyed for data collection, the best way to accomplish this is by taking up survey of command area in different levels: reconnaissance, semi-detailed and detailed. The reconnaissance and semi-detailed survey would enable us to identify problem areas. Detailed survey are needed in these areas for taking up reclamation measures. A case study of soil survey carried out in the Sharda Sahayak Command Area of a part of Hardoi District is given as an example to illustrate the use of aerial photographs for planning of water management practices.     

Transition probability/Markov chain analyses of DNAPL source zones and plumes

At sites where a dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) was spilled or released into the subsurface, estimates of the mass of DNAPL contained in the subsurface from core or monitoring well data, either in the nonaqueous or aqueous phase, can be highly uncertain because of the erratic distribution of the DNAPL due to geologic heterogeneity. In this paper, a multiphase compositional model is applied to simulate, in detail, the DNAPL saturations and aqueous-phase plume migration in a highly characterized, heterogeneous glaciofluvial aquifer, the permeability and porosity data of which were collected by researchers at the University of Tübingen, Germany. The DNAPL saturation distribution and the aqueous-phase contaminant mole fractions are then reconstructed by sampling the data from the forward simulation results using two alternate approaches, each with different degrees of sampling conditioning. To reconstruct the DNAPL source zone architecture, the aqueous-phase plume configuration, and the contaminant mass in each phase, one method employs the novel transition probability/Markov chain approach (TP/MC), while the other involves a traditional variogram analysis of the sampled data followed by ordinary kriging. The TP/MC method is typically used for facies and/or hydraulic conductivity reconstruction, but here we explore the applicability of the TP/MC method for the reconstruction of DNAPL source zones and aqueous-phase plumes. The reconstructed geometry of the DNAPL source zone, the dissolved contaminant plume, and the estimated mass in each phase are compared using the two different geostatistical modeling approaches and for various degrees of data sampling from the results of the forward simulation. It is demonstrated that the TP/MC modeling technique is robust and accurate and is a preferable alternative compared to ordinary kriging for the reconstruction of DNAPL saturation patterns and dissolved-phase contaminant plumes.     

The masers of E-type methanol in orion KL and SGR B2

Using a simplified model the statistical equilibrium and radiative transfer equations of E-type-CH₃OH are solved for Orion KL and SgrB2. According to our calculation results and the observation data taken by Matsakiset al. (1980) and Morimotoet al. (1985a, b), the physical conditions of both sources are estimated. In theJ ₂-J ₁ E methanol maser region of Orion KL, the density, kinetic temperature, dust temperature, and the fractional abundance are 0.8–2×10⁶ cm^–3, 150, 30–90 K, 0.8–8×10^–6. In the 4_–1-3₀ E and 5_–1-4₀ E methanol maser region of Sgr B2 the correspondance physical conditions above are 10⁴ cm³, 45, 23 K, and 7×10^–7, respectively.     

Reduction of thermohaline circulation during deglaciation: the effect on atmospheric radiocarbon and CO2

A two-? ocean reservoir model is employed to examine the combined effects of vertical ocean circulation, organic matter extraction and cosmic ray production on the¹⁴C/¹²C in the atmosphere, ocean and sediment. In this model, dissolution of deep-sea calcium carbonate sediment is assumed to respond to the supply of particulate carbonate from the surface ocean and to the dissolved carbonate-ion concentration of the deep-sea.If the vertical ocean circulation decreased by 50% during the maximum rate of deglaciation, the atmospheric¹⁴C/¹²C would have increased concurrently by 10% relative to the pre-bomb present. Further, if cosmic ray production of¹⁴C was 50% greater than present at about 7800 years B.P. as suggested by archeomagnetic measurements, a double maximum of 10% occurs. The first is at about 10.5 ka and the second at 6.5 ka. This result is similar to the variation of¹⁴C/¹²C over the last 10,000 years calculated from the¹⁴C dates measured by Stuiver on the varved Lake of the Clouds. The result is not sensibly altered if 10¹⁷ moles of organic carbon is extracted from the ocean during sea-level rise.Reduction of the thermohaline ocean circulation by 50% over a one- to two-thousand-year interval would not be sensibly detected in the dating of deep-sea sediment. If Broecker's organic nutrient extraction occurs in conjunction with reduction of vertical circulation, a decrease in the atmospheric P_CO2 will precede the eventual rise.     

Spatial analysis of groundwater potential using remote sensing and GIS in the Kanyakumari and Nambiyar basins,India

Remotely sensed data can provide useful information in understanding the distribution of groundwater, an important source of water supply throughout the world. In the present study, the modern geomatic technologies, namely remote sensing and GIS were used in the identification of groundwater potential zones in the Kanyakumari and Nambiyar basins of Tamil Nadu in India. The multivariate statistical technique was used to find out the relationship between rainfall and groundwater resource characteristics. It has been found out that groundwater not only depends upon rainfall, but various other factors also influence its occurrence. Eight such parameters were considered and multi criterion analysis has been carried out in order to find out the potential zones. Accordingly, it had been concluded that the Kanyakumari river basin has more ground water potential, whereas the Nambiyar basin has less potential. Thus surface investigation of groundwater has proved to be easier, time consistent and cheaper using the geomatic technologies.     

Saddle-shaped reticulate <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nummulites</Emphasis> from Early Oligocene rocks of Khari area,SW Kutch,India

Saddle-shaped reticulate Nummulites from the Early Oligocene rocks of Khari area, SW Kutch, India is reported here for the first time. Unusual shape of this Nummulites is due to the curved nature of the coiling plane, indicating space constrained postembryonic test growth. With regular development of chambers, septa and septal filaments, the saddle-shaped Nummulites constitutes the third morphotype of N. cf. fichteli Michelotti form A. Other morphotypes of the species reported earlier include inflated lenticular and conical tests. Multiple morphotypes of N. cf. fichteli form A indicates varied test growth in response to substrate conditions. Morphological variability exhibited by N. cf. fichteli form A from Kutch and some Early Oligocene reticulate Nummulites from the Far East are comparable. This faunal suite is morphologically distinct from the contemporary reticulate Nummulites of the European localities.     

Dissolved oxygen variations in alpine glacial meltwaters

Recent models of chemical weathering in alpine glacial meltwaters suggest that sulphide oxidation is a major source of solute in the distributed component of the subglacial hydrological system. This reaction requires O₂, and may lower dissolved oxygen levels to below saturation with respect to the atmosphere. This should result in an inverse association between SO₇^2- and dissolved oxygen saturation. However, measurements of O₂ saturation in bulk meltwaters draining the Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, show that there is a positive association between SO₄^2- and O₂ saturation. The O₂ content of glacial meltwaters depends on the initial content of snow and icemelt, which may be controlled by the rate of melting, and the kinetic balance between O₂ losses (e.g. sulphide oxidation, microbial respiration) and gains (e.g. diffusion of O₂ into solution).