Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

The re-analysis of the ROSAT data of Nova Mus 1983 using white dwarf atmosphere emission models

The analyses of X-ray emission from classical novae during the outburst stage have shown that the soft X-ray emission below 1 keV, which is thought to originate from the photosphere of the white dwarf, is inconsistent with the simple blackbody model of emission. Thus, ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) archival data of the classical Nova Mus 1983 (GQ Mus) have been re-analysed in order to understand the spectral development in the X-ray wavelengths during the outburst stage. The X-ray spectra are fitted with the hot white dwarf (WD) atmosphere emission models developed for the remnants of classical novae near the Eddington luminosity. The post-outburst X-ray spectra of the remnant white dwarf are examined in the context of evolution on the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram using C–O enhanced atmosphere models. The data obtained in 1991 August (during the ROSAT All Sky Survey) indicate that the effective temperature is         . The 1992 February data show that the white dwarf had reached an effective temperature in the range         with an unabsorbed X-ray flux (i.e. ∼ bolometric flux) between     and     . We show that the H burning at the surface of the WD had most likely ceased at the time of the X-ray observations. Only the 1991 August data show evidence for ongoing H burning.     

The build-up of haloes within Press–Schechter theory

Modelling the build-up of haloes is important for linking the formation of galaxies with cosmological models. A simple model of halo growth is provided by Press–Schechter (PS) theory, where the initial field of density fluctuations is smoothed using spherically symmetric filters centred on a given position to obtain information about the likelihood of later collapse on varying scales. In this paper the predicted halo mass growth is compared for three filter shapes: Gaussian, top-hat and sharp k -space. Preliminary work is also presented analysing the build-up of haloes within numerical simulations using a friends-of-friends group finder. The best-fit to the simulation mass function was obtained using PS theory with a top-hat filter. By comparing both the backwards conditional mass function, which gives the distribution of halo progenitors, and the distribution of halo mergers in time, the build-up of haloes in the simulations is shown to be better fitted by PS theory with a sharp k -space filter. This strengthens previous work, which also found the build-up of haloes in simulations to be well matched to PS theory with a sharp k -space filter by providing a direct comparison of different filters and by extending the statistical tools used to analyse halo mass growth. The usefulness of this work is illustrated by showing that the cosmological evolution in the proportion of haloes that have undergone recent merger is predicted to be independent of mass and power spectrum and to only depend upon cosmology. Recent results from observations of field galaxies are shown to match the evolution expected, but are not sufficiently accurate to distinguish usefully between cosmological parameters.     

A new pattern for the north–south asymmetry of sunspots

We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal.     

Observational Selection of Comet Discoveries

The distribution of perihelion distances of nearly periodic comets was studied using different assumptions about comet discovery probabilities. It was shown that the concentration of perihelia at small heliocentric distances cannot be explained solely by the influence of visibility conditions.     

The influence of a non‐associated flow rule on the calculation of the factor of safety of soil slopes

This paper presents a method that incorporates a non‐associated flow rule into the limit analysis to investigate the influence of the dilatancy angle on the factor of safety for the slope stability analysis. The proposed method retain's the advantage of the upper bound method, which is simple and has no stress involvement in the calculation of the energy dissipation and the factor of safety. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why Mt Etna?

The Etna volcano is located in an apparently anomalous position on the hinge zone of the Apennines subduction and its Na-alkaline geochemistry does not favour a magma source from the deep slab as indicated for the Aeolian K-alkaline magmatism. The steeper dip of the regional foreland monocline at the front of the Apennines in the Ionian Sea than in Sicily, implies a larger rollback of the subduction hinge in the Ionian Sea. Moreover, the lengthening of the Apennines arc needs extension parallel to the arc. Therefore, the larger southeastward subduction rollback of the Ionian lithosphere with respect to the Hyblean plateau in Sicily, should kinematically produce right-lateral transtension and a sort of vertical 'slab window' which might explain (i) the Plio-Pleistocene alkaline magmatism of eastern Sicily (e.g. the Etna volcano) and (ii) the late Pliocene to present right lateral transtensional tectonics and seismicity of eastern Sicily. The area of transfer of different dip and rollback occurs along the inherited Mesozoic passive continental margin between Sicily and the oceanic Ionian Sea, i.e. the Malta escarpment.