RELAXING ASSUMPTIONS OF PERFECT INFORMATION IN PARK VISITATION MODELS*

Variables related to urban park awareness are identified and methods for relaxing assumptions of perfect information in park use models are discussed. Park awareness is related to park characteristics (age and degree of development of the park), population characteristics (race, age, length of residence, recreation participation), and distance. Park attributes are stronger predictors of both park awareness and use than is distance. These findings parallel similar research on the cognitive aspects of shopping decisions.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Diet shifts of Caribbean grunts (Haemulidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) and the relation with nursery-to-coral reef migrations

The spatial size distribution of grunts and snappers have previously indicated the separation of juveniles in nursery habitats from the adults on the coral reef. This implies life cycle migrations from nursery habitats (such as seagrass beds and mangroves) to the coral reef. If diet shifts are related to such migrations, then the diets of these fish must change before or around the fish size at which such migrations take place. A wide size range of juveniles of two grunt species (Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon flavolineatum) and of two snapper species (Lutjanus apodus and Ocyurus chrysurus) were caught in seagrass beds and mangroves, and their gut contents identified and quantified. Regression analysis between fish size and dietary importance of small crustaceans showed a negative relationship in all four species. Positive relations were found for H. sciurus, L. apodus and O. chrysurus between fish length and the dietary importance of decapods, and for L. apodusand O. chrysurus between fish length and prey fish importance. Critical changes in the fish diets with fish size were examined by application of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). The CCA yielded three clusters of size-classes of fishes with similar diets, and application of a Mantel test showed that each of these clusters had significantly different diets, and that each cluster diet was significantly specialised. The size at which a fish species ‘switched’ from one cluster to another was compared with size-at-maturity data and with the typical size at which these species migrate from the nursery habitats to the coral reef. H. sciurus and H. flavolineatum may be prompted to migrate from the nursery habitats to coral reef habitats because of dietary changes, or because of the development of the gonads. For L. apodus and O. chrysurus, a dietary changeover forms a more likely explanation for nursery-to-reef migrations than does sexual maturation because these species reach maturity at sizes much larger than the maximum size of individuals found in nursery habitats. Although other factors may theoretically initiate or promote the migration patterns, the results of this study indicate that ontogenetic dietary changes may crucially influence the nursery-to-coral reef migrations of these reef fish species.     

Regeneration of sand waves after dredging

Sand waves are large bed waves on the seabed, being a few metres high and lying hundreds of metres apart. In some cases, these sand waves occur in navigation channels. If these sand waves reduce the water depth to an unacceptable level and hinder navigation, they need to be dredged. It has been observed in the Bisanseto Channel in Japan that the sand waves tend to regain their shape after dredging. In this paper, we address modelling of this regeneration of sand waves, aiming to predict this process. For this purpose, we combine a very simple, yet effective, amplitude-evolution model based on the Landau equation, with measurements in the Bisanseto Channel. The model parameters are tuned to the measured data using a genetic algorithm, a stochastic optimization routine. The results are good. The tuned model accurately reproduces the measured growth of the sand waves. The differences between the measured weave heights and the model results are smaller than the measurement noise. Furthermore, the resulting parameters are surprisingly consistent, given the large variations in the sediment characteristics, the water depth and the flow field. This approach was tested on its predictive capacity using a synthetic test case. The model was tuned based on constructed predredging data and the amplitude evolution as measured for over 2 years. After tuning, the predictions were accurate for about 10 years. Thus, it is shown that the approach could be a useful tool in the optimization of dredging strategies in case of dredging of sand waves.     

Crustal structure of the western Arafura Sea from ocean bottom seismograph data

Refraction data taken from ocean bottom seismograph recordings in the western Arafura Sea indicate a continental‐type structure for the region. This structure is characterised by a thin column (2 km) of sediments, with velocities ranging from about to 2 to 4 km s^‐1, overlying an essentially two layer crust. The compressional wave velocities in the upper and lower crust are 5.97 and 6.52 km s^‐1, respectively, with the boundary between the layers at a depth of 11 km. Very weak mantle‐refracted arrivals with a velocity of about 8.0 km s^‐1 were recorded. Large‐amplitude, later arrivals, beginning at distances near 100 and 150 km, have been interpreted to be part of the retrograde branches from the 8.0 and 7.33 km s^‐1 layers, respectively. Model studies indicate that a small positive velocity gradient is required between 17 and 30 km, and that the Moho is at a depth of 34 km. A third set of large amplitude, later arrivals starting at a distance near 250 km has been interpreted as most probably multiple refraction‐reflection arrivals from the 5.97 and 6.52 km s^‐1 layers. Correlation of this structure with the stratigraphic logs from exploratory oil wells in the Arafura Sea using layer velocities indicates that rocks younger than Jurassic appear to thin towards the east.     

Laboratory simulation of geogas microbubble flow

Preliminary laboratory tests provided first data on the behavior of gas microbubbles through porous media in the framework of the geogas theory. Under experimented conditions with laboratory equipment arranged for pressure controlled gas-tracer injection and sampling, gas microbubbles moved up to ten times faster than singlephase flow in dry media under the same injection pressure. Microbubbles were determined to be very sensitive to changes in injection pressure and their terminal velocity seems to be described with good approximation by the Stokes formula. The capability of microbubbles to pick up and transport upward for short distances solid ultra-small particles (metallic and radionuclide compounds) has been proved. Results are consistent with a time-dependent process linked to the transport properties of microbubbles (e.g., flotation), such as that reported by some authors.     

The Amphipod Community as a Bioindicator in Algeciras Bay (Southern Iberian Peninsula) Based on a Spatio-Temporal Distribution

Abstract. The amphipod population associated with Bugula neritina (L.), a verycommon bryozoan species in Algeciras Bay (Strait of Gibraltar), was studied on a spatio-temporal scale, in order to define its role as a bioindicator. Samples were collected in December, March, June and September along a transect running from the external to the internal sampling stations.
Fifty-three species belonging to 22 families were identified; the most abundant species were Jassa marmorata H olmes , Ischyrocerus inexpectatus (R uffo ) and Phtisica marina S labber .
The spatial evolution of the amphipod community reflected the physico-chemical conditions of Algeciras Bay, yielding a clear gradient from the outer to the inner stations. The stations located at the mouth of the bay, characterised by high hydrodynamism and low sedimentation, had a higher diversity and species richness than the inner stations with low water movement and higher sedimentation. Eight species preferred for the outer stations, while another nine species were typical of the inner harbours.
The most notable aspect of the seasonal evolution was the increased dominance of the tube-builder and deposit-suspension feeder Jassa marmorota .
Structural and ordination analyses corroborate the outer-inner gradient in the bay and illustrate the importance of hydrodynamic forces and sedimentation in the amphipod community.     

Ozone production due to emissions from vegetation burning

Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.