Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

Electromagnetic studies in the central Arctic water basin

The results of the electromagnetic studies, obtained on the North Pole drifting stations, are reviewed. These results are still of current interest. The aspects of similar future works are discussed.     

The respiratory environment of the Namib Desert Golden Mole

We measured the partial pressure of oxygen (PO₂) in the interstitial gas surrounding the sand-swimming Namib moleEremitalpa granti namibensis. At a sand temperature of 26 °C, which produced a nearly maximal rate of oxygen consumption, thePO₂near the noses of the animals averaged only 0·9 kPa (6·7 Torr) below the level in the free atmosphere. High oxygen availability was a result of the notably low metabolic rate in the 20 g mammals and the dry, porous and metabolically inactive nature of dune sand. A mathematical model indicated that normal mammals weighing 200 g or more could comfortably exist completely encased in dune sand. We concluded that the moles' small size and low metabolic rate are not adaptations to hypoxia or hypercapnia underground but are probably related to low food availability and the energetic cost of foraging in their desert environment.     

Modeling the dynamics of a high specific energy plasma bulge in the upper atmosphere: 1. Physics of the processes and numerical simulation of the early stage of plasma bulge expansion and interaction with the ionosphere and geomagnetic field: A review

The physicomathematical features of the plasma explosion region dynamics at altitudes higher than 100 km at the early stage of its development, which culminates in the transfer of a considerable portion of the initial plasma energy into the environment, are discussed in the first part of the work. The radiation gas dynamic, inertial, and shock stages of the disturbed region development are calculated.     

RHESSI Microflares: II. Implications for Loop Structure and Evolution

We present simple analytic models which predict the peak X-ray emission measure and temperature attained in flares in which the chromospheric evaporation process takes place either in a single ‘monolithic’ loop or in a loop consisting of several filaments that are created successively as the energy release process proceeds in time. As possible mechanisms driving chromospheric evaporation we consider both classical heat conduction from the loop top and non-thermal electron beams. The model predictions are tested for a set of 18 well studied RHESSI microflares. The results suggest beam driven evaporation in filamented loops as being capable of accounting for the observed emission measures and temperatures though there are issues with the very high beam densities needed. On the other hand, estimates of the emission measures achieved by conductive evaporation which are derived by using the Rosner – Tucker – Vaiana (RTV) scaling law are much larger than the observed ones. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Validation of an annual cycle simulation with a T42-L20 GCM

An annual cycle of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is presented. The winter and summer zonal averages of the atmospheric fields are compared with an observed climatology. The main features of the observed seasonal means are well reproduced by the model. One of the main discrepancies is that the simulated atmosphere is too cold, particularly in its upper part. Some other discrepancies might be explained by the interannual variability. The AGCM surface fluxes are directly compared to climatological estimates. On the other hand, the calculation of meridional heat transport by the ocean, inferred from the simulated energy budget, can be compared to transport induced from climatologies. The main result of this double comparison is that AGCM fluxes generally are within the range of climatological estimates. The main deficiency of the model is poor partitioning between solar and non-solar heat fluxes in the tropical belt. The meridional heat transport also reveals a significant energy-loss by the Northern Hemisphere ocean north of 45° N. The possible implications of model surface flux deficiencies on coupling with an oceanic model are discussed.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

First Data on the Isotopic Age of Zircons from Rocks of the Roseta Ultramafic Massif,Southern Margin of the São Francisco Craton (Brazil)

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of isotope U–Pb dating of zircons from lherzolite and vein olivine orthopyroxenite composing the Roseta ultramafic massif are presented. The zircons...     

Distribution and properties of placer ilmenite in East Rosetta beach sands,Egypt

This work deals with a concise but comprehensive study of Ilmenite distribution in the beach sands of east Rosetta. This area extends for 28 km east of Rosetta Nile branch-estuary. The sands come out of the estuary are subjected to north-westerly winds and a current parallel to the beach line from west to east. The significant data about this heavy mineral distribution are shown in Fig. 1 and 2, and summerized in Tables 1–5. The Ilmenite properties especially the trace elements are also comprehended. Systematic withdrawal of 258 auger samples were distributed in a grid with 400 m parallel, and 200 m perpendicular to the beach line and 1 m depth. The main Ilmenite concentrations are present in three areas A, B and C. The Ilmenite content varies generally between 2. 2% as minimum and 18. 12% as maximum. The top meter (upper 1 m) contains 2. 91 million dry tons in an area covering 21 km². The Ilmenite forms the major mineral in the beach sands nearly north of Rosetta (Fig. 1 and 2). The principal richness of Ilmenite is contained in the area "B" which is close to Abu-Khashaba. The average value of Ilmenite all over the beach comes to 8. 128%. The mineral is found in normal distribution (Fig. 3) and this confirmed the deposition parallel to the beach line and irregular deposition perpendicular to the beach line. This is in accordance with the dominant current from the west to the east. The Magnetite is separated by using natural small magnet in one hand, as well as the Ilmenite, Hematite, Monazite, Zircon, Rutile and Garnet in the other hand by using the FRANTZ Isodynamic separator. The Ilmenite is estimated by using the separator in two different steps of suitable tilt and current.     

Asymmetry of compton scattering by relativistic electrons with an isotropic velocity distribution: Astrophysical implications

The angular distribution of low-frequency radiation after a single scattering by relativistic electrons with an isotropic velocity distribution differs markedly from the Rayleigh angular function. In particular, the scattering by an ensemble of ultrarelativistic electrons is described by the law p=1?cosα, where α is the scattering angle. Thus, photons are mostly scattered backward. We discuss some consequences of this fact for astrophysical problems. We show that a hot atmosphere of scattering electrons is more reflective than a cold one: the fraction of incident photons reflected after a single scattering can be larger than that in the former case by up to 50%. This must affect the photon exchange between cold accretion disks and hot coronae (or advective flows) near relativistic compact objects, as well as the rate of cooling (through multiple inverse-Compton scattering of the photons supplied from outside) of optically thick clouds of relativistic electrons in compact radio sources. Scattering asymmetry also causes the spatial diffusion of photons to proceed more slowly in a hot plasma than in a cold one, which affects the shapes of Comptonization spectra and the time delay in the detection of soft and hard radiation from variable X-ray sources.