Assessment and Management Flash Flood in Najran Wady Using GIS and Remote Sensing

Flash flood assessment and management are necessary for municipal, urban growth planning and emergency action plans. By using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System software, we can model flash flood events and calculate water surface profiles over the length of the modeled stream. After collecting elevation points by using GPS method, the digital elevation model can be calculated for the study area. Najran city has main flood stream passes beside King Abdullah Road based on facts and previous works. A small study area including the mainstream of Wady Najran and King Abdullah Road has chosen as test site. The used methodology has also been proved efficiently for identifying flood inundation maps. Water extent area overlapped by 52–86% for both used methods. At discharge Q = 15 m³/s, the road needs to be protected from the flood.     

Ensemble filter methods with perturbed observations applied to nonlinear problems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been shown repeatedly to be an effective method for data assimilation in large-scale problems, including those in petroleum engineering. Data assimilation for multiphase flow in porous media is particularly difficult, however, because the relationships between model variables (e.g., permeability and porosity) and observations (e.g., water cut and gas–oil ratio) are highly nonlinear. Because of the linear approximation in the update step and the use of a limited number of realizations in an ensemble, the EnKF has a tendency to systematically underestimate the variance of the model variables. Various approaches have been suggested to reduce the magnitude of this problem, including the application of ensemble filter methods that do not require perturbations to the observed data. On the other hand, iterative least-squares data assimilation methods with perturbations of the observations have been shown to be fairly robust to nonlinearity in the data relationship. In this paper, we present EnKF with perturbed observations as a square root filter in an enlarged state space. By imposing second-order-exact sampling of the observation errors and independence constraints to eliminate the cross-covariance with predicted observation perturbations, we show that it is possible in linear problems to obtain results from EnKF with observation perturbations that are equivalent to ensemble square-root filter results. Results from a standard EnKF, EnKF with second-order-exact sampling of measurement errors that satisfy independence constraints (EnKF (SIC)), and an ensemble square-root filter (ETKF) are compared on various test problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity and dimensions. The first test problem is a simple one-variable quadratic model in which the nonlinearity of the observation operator is varied over a wide range by adjusting the magnitude of the coefficient of the quadratic term. The second problem has increased observation and model dimensions to test the EnKF (SIC) algorithm. The third test problem is a two-dimensional, two-phase reservoir flow problem in which permeability and porosity of every grid cell (5,000 model parameters) are unknown. The EnKF (SIC) and the mean-preserving ETKF (SRF) give similar results when applied to linear problems, and both are better than the standard EnKF. Although the ensemble methods are expected to handle the forecast step well in nonlinear problems, the estimates of the mean and the variance from the analysis step for all variants of ensemble filters are also surprisingly good, with little difference between ensemble methods when applied to nonlinear problems.     

Evaluation of the seismic hazard for 20 cities in Romania using Monte Carlo based simulations

This work focuses on the evaluation of the seismic hazard for Romania using earthquake catalogues generated by a Monte Carlo approach. The seismicity of Romania can be attributed to the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source and to 13 other crustal seismic sources. The recurrence times of large magnitude seismic events (both crustal and subcrustal), as well as the moment release rates are computed using simulated earthquake catalogues. The results show that the largest contribution to the overall moment release for the crustal seismic sources is from the seismic regions in Bulgaria, while the seismic regions in Romania contribute less than 5% of the overall moment release. In addition, the computations show that the moment release rate for the Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is about ten times larger than that of all the crustal seismic sources. Finally, the Monte Carlo approach is used to evaluate the seismic hazard for 20 cities in Romania with populations larger than 100,000 inhabitants. The results show some differences between the seismic hazard values obtained through Monte-Carlo simulation and those in the Romanian seismic design code P100-1/2013, notably for cities situated in the western part of Romania that are influenced by local crustal seismic sources.     

300年来中国森林的变化

Based on historical documents, modern survey and statistics, as well as the result of predecessor studies, the trend and main process of forest dynamics are recognized. The forest area and forest coverage rates for each province of China from 1700 to 1949 are estimated backward by every 50 years. Linking the result with modern National Forest Inventory data, the spatial-temporal dynamics of Chinese forest in recent 300 years （AD 1700-1998） is quantitatively analyzed. The study shows that in recent 300 years, the forest area in current territory of China has declined by 0.95×10^8 hm^2 （or 9.2% of the coverage rate） in total, with a trend of decrease and recovery. Before the 1960s, there was a trend of accelerated descending. The forest area was reduced by 1.66×10^8 hm^2 （or 17% of the coverage rate） in 260 years. While after the 1960s, there has been a rapid increase. The forest area increased by 0.7×10^8 hm^2 （or 8% of the coverage rate） in 40 years. The study also shows that there is a significant spatial difference in the dynamics of forest. The amplitudes of increasing and decreasing in western China are both smaller than the ones in eastern China. During the rapid declining period from 1700 to 1949, the most serious decrease appeared in the Northeast, the Southwest and the Southeast, where the coverage rate in most provinces dropped over 20%. In Heilongjiang Province, the coverage rate dropped by 50%. In Jilin Province, it dropped by 36%. In Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, it dropped by 42%. In Yunnan Province, it dropped by 35%. During the recovery period 1949-1998, the western provinces, municipality and autonomous regions, including Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan-Chongqing, Yunnan, Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai, etc, the increase rates are all below 5%, while the eastern provinces, municipality and autonomous regions （except Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu-Shanghai） have achieved an increase over 5%, among which the Guangdong-Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Beijing-Tianjin-H     

Hydrogeochemistry of Groundwater and Its Suitability for Drinking and Agricultural Use in Nahavand,Western Iran

Groundwater is the major source of drinking water in Nahavand city. However, the groundwater quality at the agricultural areas has been deteriorating in recent years. Ground water quality monitoring is a tool which provides important information for water management and sustainable development of the water resources in Nahavand. Hydrochemical investigations were carried out in an agricultural area in Nahavand, western Iran, to assess chemical composition of groundwater. In this study, 64 representative groundwater samples were collected from different irrigation wells and analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity, major ions, and nitrate. The results of the chemical analysis of the groundwater showed that concentrations of ions vary widely and the most prevalent water type is Ca–Mg–HCO₃, followed by other water types: Ca–HCO₃, Ca–Na–HCO₃, and Na–Cl, which is in relation with their interactions with the geological formations of the basin, dissolution of feldspars and chloride and bicarbonate minerals, and anthropogenic activities. Thirty-seven percent of the water samples showed nitrate (NO₃ ⁻) concentrations above the human affected value (13 mg L⁻¹). The phosphorous (P) concentration in groundwater was between 0.11 and 0.90 mg L⁻¹, with an average value of 0.30 mg L⁻¹, with all of the samples over 0.05 mg L⁻¹. The most dominant class C2-S1 (76.5%) was found in the studied area, indicating that sodicity is very low and salinity is medium, and that these waters are suitable for irrigation in almost all soils. Agronomic practices, such as cultivation, cropping, and irrigation water management may decrease the average NO₃ ⁻ concentration in water draining from the soil zone.     

Variation of Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains,China

The Thornthwaite moisture index, an index of the supply of water(precipitation) in an area relative to the climatic demand for water(potential evapotranspiration), was used to examine the spatial and temporal variation of drought and to verify the influence of environmental factors on the drought in the Hengduan Mountains, China. Results indicate that the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Hengduan Mountains had been increasing since 1960 with a rate of 0.1938/yr. Annual Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains was between –97.47 and 67.43 and the spatial heterogeneity was obvious in different seasons. Thornthwaite moisture index was high in the north and low in the south, and the monsoon rainfall had a significant impact on its spatial distribution. The tendency rate of Thornthwaite moisture index variation varied in different seasons, and the increasing trends in spring were greater than that in summer and autumn. However, the Thornthwaite moisture index decreased in winter. Thornthwaite moisture index increased greatly in the north and there was a small growth in the south of Hengduan Mountains. The increase of precipitation and decrease of evaporation lead to the increase of Thornthwaite moisture index. Thornthwaite moisture index has strong correlation with vegetation coverage. It can be seen that the correlation between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Thornthwaite moisture index was positive in spring and summer, but negative in autumn and winter. Correlation between Thornthwaite moisture index and relative soil relative moisture content was positive in spring, summer and autumn, but negative in winter. The typical mountainous terrain affect the distribution of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and other meteorological factors in this region, and then affect the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The unique ridge-gorge terrain caused the continuity of water-heat distribution from the north to south, and the water-heat was stronger than that from the east to west part, and thus determined the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The drought in the Hengduan Mountains area is mainly due to the unstable South Asian monsoon rainfall time.     

Changes in Habitat Availability for Multiple Life Stages of Diamondback Terrapins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Malaclemys terrapin</Emphasis>) in Chesapeake Bay in Response to Sea Level Rise

Global sea level rise (SLR) will significantly alter coastal landscapes through inundation and erosion of low-lying areas. Animals that display area fidelity and rely on fringing coastal habitats during multiple life stages, such as diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin Schoepff 1793), are likely to be particularly vulnerable to SLR-induced changes. We used a combination of empirical nest survey data and results from a regional SLR model to explore the long-term availability of known nesting locations and the modeled availability of fringing coastal habitats under multiple SLR scenarios for diamondback terrapin in the MD portion of Chesapeake Bay and the MD coastal bays. All SLR scenarios projected the rapid inundation of historically used nesting locations of diamondback terrapins with 25%–55% loss within the next 10 years and over 80% loss by the end of the century. Model trajectories of habitat losses or gains depended on habitat type and location. A key foraging habitat, brackish marsh, was projected to decline 6%–94%, with projections varying spatially and among scenarios. Despite predicted losses of extant beach habitats, future gains in beach habitat due to erosion and overwash were projected to reach 40%–600%. These results demonstrate the potential vulnerability of diamondback terrapins to SLR in Chesapeake Bay and underscore the possibility of compounding negative effects of SLR on animals whose habitat requirements differ among life stages. More broadly, this study highlights the vulnerability of species dependent on fringing coastal habitats and emphasizes the need for a long-term perspective for coastal development in the face of SLR.     

Line-of-Sight Observables Algorithms for the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager</Emphasis> (HMI) Instrument Tested with <Emphasis Type="Italic">Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer</Emphasis> (IBIS) Observations

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory produces line-of-sight (LOS) observables (Doppler velocity, magnetic-field strength, Fe i line width, line depth, and continuum intensity) as well as vector magnetic-field maps at the solar surface. The accuracy of LOS observables is dependent on the algorithm used to translate a sequence of HMI filtergrams into the corresponding observables. Using one hour of high-cadence imaging spectropolarimetric observations of a sunspot in the Fe i line at 6173 Å through the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer installed at the Dunn Solar Telescope, and the Milne–Eddington inversion of the corresponding Stokes vectors, we test the accuracy of the observables algorithm currently implemented in the HMI data-analysis pipeline: the MDI-like algorithm. In an attempt to improve the accuracy of HMI observables, we also compare this algorithm to others that may be implemented in the future: a least-squares fit with a Gaussian profile, a least-squares fit with a Voigt profile, and the use of second Fourier coefficients in the MDI-like algorithm.     

Tidal current observation in the southern Yellow Sea in the summers of 2001 and 2003

Direct current observations in the Yellow Sea interior are very scarce due to intense fishing and trawling activities. Most previous studies on tides in the area were based on coastal measurements or satellite altimeter sea levels and have not been rigorously compared with direct measurements. In this paper, tidal currents are studied with current profiles from three bottom-moored Sontek Acoustic Doppler Profilers （ADPs） deployed in the southern Yellow Sea in summer of 2001 and 2003. The measured current series were dominated by tidal currents. Maximum velocities are between 40-80 cm/s at the mooring stations. M2 current is the most dominant primary tidal constituent, while MS4 and M4 are the most significant shallow water tides with much smaller amplitudes than the primary tides.     

Study in laboratory of treatment with cement of silty material: improvement of the mechanical properties

The addition of the agent of treatment allows to obtain a better traficability and improves the capacity of the soil to compaction while assuring a correct implementation. Besides, the binder provides to the soil a direct, maintained, or increasing lift at the same time. The choice of the agent of treatment and its dosage is determined by the type of soil, its moisture content at the time of the treatment, and by the aimed characteristics. The technique of treatment of soil in place in the hydraulic binders consists in valuing the natural soil (existing at the site of construction) by mixing them with a hydraulic binder and some water. It allows to avoid the transport and implies their stabilization in very interesting costs before the implementation of the superficial layers. In this context, this paper presents the results of the shear strength parameters of a study in laboratory with the aim of using the fine soil, in particular an Algerian western resulting silt, after a treatment with the cement by dry mixing method. Our goal is to realize pavement structures (base layer and subgrade layer) with this material. This type of treatment requires to know well the material which we wish to treat. A geotechnical complete characterization before treatment is approached on samples compacted in different water content, followed by the study of the influence of the addition of 2, 4, and 6 % cement on the characteristics of portance and of strength to shearing. Shear test was performed after curing the samples for 24 h to evaluate the shear strength parameters. The obtained results highlight a clearly better and marked improvement of the characteristics such as the lift and the strength to shearing.