Assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology – A case study in the Western Ghats of India

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The long-term trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006–2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at \(0.10\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of \(1.2\,\hbox {Mm}^{3}\) per year and 2.56 \(\hbox {Mm}^{3},\) respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate.     

Tide-Induced Variations in the Fatty Acid Composition of Estuarine Particulate Organic Matter

The particulate organic matter (POM) in hydrodynamically variable habitats such as the lower reaches of estuaries can change in its content and quality on very short time scales (example, hourly), and these changes can potentially influence higher-level consumers in river-estuary-marine systems. Estuarine water samples were collected hourly for 12 h downstream in a small river to evaluate the fatty acid composition of POM over a tidal cycle. Fatty acid constituents of POM collected during the flood tide were dominated by the saturated, higher plant and bacterial fatty acids, whereas unsaturated, polyunsaturated, essential, and diatom-associated fatty acids dominated the POM collected during the ebb tide. Elevated algal biomass (as indicated by high chlorophyll a concentrations), diatom, and freshness indices in the POM indicated enhanced fresh autochthonous-origin materials that dominated the mixed organic pool during the ebb tide compared to more degraded detritus during the flood tide. Tidal retention of organic matter and algal primary production were the most influential factors that differentiated the fatty acid composition of estuarine POM over the short time scale. The results of this study have important implications on the quality of POM at the time of sampling, especially in estuaries where mixed organic pools have multiple inputs and are strongly influenced by tidal cycles.     

Delineation of Rajmahal basaltic flows,inter-trappeans and associated coal layers using Audio-magneto-telluric method

The extensive volcanic activity of Rajmahal occurred during early Cretaceous (~117 Ma). Potentially perspective Gondawana sediments containing coal seam is partially covered by these basalts. Basalts as well as coal are already known to be of immense economic importance over Rajmahal traps. The present study mainly deals with delineation of basaltic lava flows and associated coal layers using the Audio-magneto-telluric (AMT) study in the south central region of Rajmahal traps near Suri, West Bengal, India. Initially, the field situations have been simulated using forward model with top alluvium cover followed by basaltic lava flows, a wedge shaped inter-trappean sedimentary formation with second basaltic lava flows and basement at the bottom. The model was constrained using available litholog. The model study reveals the presence of moderately resistive basalts, relatively conductive inter-trappeans and the basement, except the top alluvium layer and thin inter-trappeans. Subsequently, threeAMT sounding have been carried out over Cholaguria, Hatgacha and Pachami, Suri, West Bengal. The field AMT study reveals three basaltic lava flows with varying thickness from ~40m to ~350m and composite thickness of ~620m to ~640m, which match well with the published borehole litholog. The inter-trappeans have been identified at 500m to 620m, 310m to 400m and 500m to 640m depths over Cholaguria, Hatgacha and Pachami, respectively. It is interesting to mention that the identified inter-trappeans are inferred to be coal/shaly-coal which are matching very well with the published borehole lithologs.     

Development of extended WRF variational data assimilation system (WRFDA) for WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

The paper intends to present the development of the extended weather research forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system in the framework of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model core of weather research forecasting system (WRF-NMM), as an imperative aspect of numerical modeling studies. Though originally the WRFDA provides improved initial conditions for advanced research WRF, we have successfully developed a unified WRFDA utility that can be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. After critical evaluation, it has been strategized to develop a code to merge WRFDA framework and WRF-NMM output. In this paper, we have provided a few selected implementations and initial results through single observation test, and background error statistics like eigenvalues, eigenvector and length scale among others, which showcase the successful development of extended WRFDA code for WRF-NMM model. Furthermore, the extended WRFDA system is applied for the forecast of three severe cyclonic storms: Nargis (27 April–3 May 2008), Aila (23–26 May 2009) and Jal (4–8 November 2010) formed over the Bay of Bengal. Model results are compared and contrasted within the analysis fields and later on with high-resolution model forecasts. The mean initial position error is reduced by 33% with WRFDA as compared to GFS analysis. The vector displacement errors in track forecast are reduced by 33, 31, 30 and 20% to 24, 48, 72 and 96 hr forecasts respectively, in data assimilation experiments as compared to control run. The model diagnostics indicates successful implementation of WRFDA within the WRF-NMM system.     

Numerical analysis for random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions

The stochastic finite element equations for random temperature are obtained using the first-order per-turbation technique taking into account the random thermal properties and boundary condition, based on heat transfer variational principle. The local average method for 2-D is used to discretize random fields. Then, the random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions are investigated on condi-tion that the thermal properties and boundary condition are taken as random fields, respectively, by using the program, which is written by the methods. The expected value of temperature field and the standard deviation of the temperature field of embankment in cold regions are obtained and analyzed.     

The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-variables and its application to trace studies in geosciences

The "mean value concept" in a mono-linear regression of multi-variables is clarified.Its applications to reconstruction of the past 90-year salinity of the sea surface water in Xisha Islands and to tracing the past 80 ka paleo-geomagnetic events from the Luochuan loess 10Be record are introduced in detail,which show the significance and the potential of the "mean value concept" in geoscience research.     

Evolution of vegetation and climate since the last glacial maximum recorded at Dahu peat site, South China

Sporopollen analysis on a 346 cm peat record at Dahu, Jiangxi, chronologically constrained by 16 AMS 14C datings, provides an opportunity to reconstruct the vegetation evolution stages responding to cli-mate change in South China since the last glacial maximum. The result shows that during 18330-15630 cal a B.P., broad-leaved forest dominated the area, corresponding to mild, cool and fairly humid climate. At the interval of 15630-11600 cal a B.P., several evergreen broad-leaved species appeared within the broad-leaved forest, indicating moderate and humid condition. During early Holocene, broad-leaved evergreen forest community was constructed as Castanopsis/Lithorcarpus principally developed, suggesting a warm and humid scenario until 6000 cal a B. P. Since 6000 cal a B. P., abrupt forest deterioration happened with an contemporary increase of fern and herb communities, repre-senting a turnover to relatively cool and dry condition and as well, possible impact from human activi-ties. Meanwhile, several relatively cool and dry events can be identified in the sporopollen record, they can be correlated to the North Atlantic Heinrich event, YD and Holocene millennial-scale oscillations, implying that the low latitude climate was coupled with high latitude influences. Moreover, the varia-tions of temperature and humidity since LGM at Dahu were much smaller when compared with the re-cords in north monsoonal China.     

Strong motion uncertainty determined from observed records by dense network in Japan

The variation of ground motions at specific stations from events in six narrow areas was inspected by using K-NET and KiK-net records. A source-area factor for individual observation stations was calculated by averaging ratios between observed values for horizontal peak acceleration and velocity, as well as acceleration response spectra for 5% damping, and predicted values using a ground-motion model (usually known as an attenuation relation) by Kanno et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 96:879–897, 2006). Standard deviations between observed and predicted amplitudes after the correction factor are less than 0.2 on the logarithmic scale and decrease down to around 0.15 in the short-period range. Intra-event standard deviation clearly increases with decreasing distance due to differing paths around near source area. Standard deviations may increase with amplitude or decrease with magnitude; however, both amplitude and magnitude of the data are strongly correlated with distance. The standard deviation calculated in this study is obviously much smaller than that of the original ground-motion model, as epistemic uncertainties are minimized by grouping ground motions at specific stations. This result indicates that the accuracy of strong ground motion prediction could be improved if ground-motion models for specified region are determined individually. For this to be possible, it is necessary to have dense strong-motion networks in high-seismicity regions, such as K-NET and KiK-net.     

Preliminary Results of Anthropogenic Seismicity Monitoring in the Region of Song Tranh 2 Reservoir,Central Vietnam

Song Tranh 2 hydropower plant and the reservoir containing backed up water are located in the Quang Nam province (Central Vietnam). The region experiences unusual seismic activity related to the reservoir impoundment, with earthquakes of magnitude up to 4.7. In result of cooperation between the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Sciences and Technology and the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences a seismic network has been built to facilitate seismic monitoring of the Song Tranh 2 area. The network, operating since August 2013, consists of 10 seismic stations. Here we show that the network is sufficient for advanced data processing. The first results of monitoring of the earthquake activity in Song Tranh 2 area in the period between 2012 and 2014, especially the completeness of catalogs, study and comparisons between water level and the seismic activity suggest direct connection between reservoir exploitation and anthropogenic seismicity.     

Contribution of rock magnetism to stratigraphy and palaeoenvironment of the Karaïn cave infill,Antalya, Turkey

The magnetic properties of the infill of the Karaïn cave in Turkey were compared to the results of a sedimentological study on three longitudinal sections. The sediments of this site, namely cavity E, cover a period of ca. 500 ka and correspond to a large part of the Middle and Upper Pleistocene. The evolution observed for the various magnetic parameters is mainly related to climatic changes which followed one another during the infilling history of the cave. Two preconditions are necessary to understand the environmental magnetism, namely both the identification and the quantification of different magnetic phases (components) in the sediments, expressed by the ratio of the various magnetic parameters and the analysis of the magnetization curves. The results obtained through the study of the different magnetic parameters (low-field initial bulk (κ_lf) and mass (χ_lf) magnetic susceptibility, frequency dependence of the magnetic susceptibility (χ_fd), anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM), hysteresis parameters, anhysteretic susceptibility, ...) on 171 samples allowed us: 1 — to follow the nature, size and source of the grains at each level, and 2 — to identify six alternating levels, having different magnetic susceptibility signatures during warm, damp periods, in which the contribution of prehistorical hominidae (Homo Sapiens or Homo Neandertalensis) and animals, could have modified the original sedimentary structures.This study, in agreement with the sedimentological results, suggests a significant difference between sandy or sandy-silty levels (3 and 5) and those rich in clays and concretions. The sandy or sandy-silty levels are mainly characterized by a low amount of antiferromagnetic type grains, likely goethite and hematite, dominated by single-domain size (SD) and a small content of ferrimagnetic type grains, likely magnetite of multidomain size (MD), inherited from the host rock. Antiferromagnetic grains did not develop and were a priori drifted by the wind. They could be contemporaneous with a cold climate.The clays and clayey-silty levels are characterized by a large amount of superparamagnetic (SP) and SD grains, and a high content of low coercivity magnetic grains (magnetite, maghemite and Ti-magnetite). The saturation remanent magnetization (SIRM) of clayey levels is 5 to 10 times higher than that of sandy levels. The clayey levels are contemporaneous with a humid climate, which favoured the formation of secondary iron oxides, of stalagmitic floors and calcite concretions and of the emplacement of local pedogenesis phenomena, mainly at the top of the infill, i.e. in Level 6.