Variability patterns of Rossby wave source

Rossby waves (RW) propagation due to a local forcing is one of the mechanisms responsible for wave trains configurations known as teleconnections. The term teleconnection refers to anomalies patterns that are correlated in several regions of the world, causing large-scale changes in atmospheric waves patterns and temperature and precipitation regimes. The aim of teleconnections studies is to provide a better understanding of atmospheric variability and their mechanisms of action in order to identify patterns that can be tracked and predicted. The purpose of this study was to characterize seasonal and spatial variability of atmospheric RW sources. The RW source at 200?hPa was calculated for the four seasons with reanalysis data of zonal and meridional wind. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the RW sources were located on East Asia, North America, North Atlantic and Pacific. The main RW sources in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) were located over Intertropical, South Pacific, South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Extratropical regions were also identified, mainly to the south of Australia. The vortex stretching term (S1) and the advection of absolute vorticity by the divergent wind (S2) were analyzed to discuss the physical mechanisms for RW generation. In the NH, the source at East Asia in DJF changed to a sink in JJA, related to the dominance of S1 term in DJF and S2 term in JJA. In the SH, the vortex stretching term had the dominant contribution for RW source located to the south of Australia. The main forcing for RW sources at east of Australia was the advection of absolute vorticity by divergent flow. Over South America, both terms contributed to the source in DJF. The main modes of RW source variability were discussed by using empirical orthogonal functions analysis. RW variability was characterized by wave trains configurations in both hemispheres over regions of jet streams and storm tracks, associated with favorable and unfavorable areas for RW generation.     

Testing WRF capability in simulating the atmospheric water cycle over Equatorial East Africa

Uncertainties in simulating the seasonal mean atmospheric water cycle in Equatorial East Africa are quantified using 58 one-year-long experiments performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Tested parameters include physical parameterizations of atmospheric convection, cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer, land-surface model and radiation schemes, as well as land-use categories (USGS vs. MODIS), lateral forcings (ERA-Interim and ERA40 reanalyses), and domain geometry (size and vertical resolution). Results show that (1) uncertainties, defined as the differences between the experiments, are larger than the biases; (2) the parameters exerting the largest influence on simulated rainfall are, in order of decreasing importance, the shortwave radiation scheme, the land-surface model, the domain size, followed by convective schemes and land-use categories; (3) cloud microphysics, lateral forcing reanalysis, the number of vertical levels and planetary boundary layer schemes appear to be of lesser importance at the seasonal scale. Though persisting biases (consisting of conditions that are too wet over the Indian Ocean and the Congo Basin and too dry over eastern Kenya) prevail in most experiments, several configurations simulate the regional climate with reasonable accuracy.     

A statistical�Cdynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables

The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500?hPa geopotential height and 1,000?hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50?years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our findings are encouraging for the prospects of basin-scale ocean dynamical downscaling using a weather-typing approach to reconstruct forcing fields for high resolution ocean models (Part II) from coarse resolution climate models.     

Geostatistics for radiological evaluation: study of structuring of extreme values

Geostatistics applied to radiological evaluation of nuclear premises provides sound methods to estimate radiological activities, together with their uncertainty. Quantification and risk analysis of contaminated areas are initially performed by applying geostatistical methods relying on the multi-Gaussian assumption. However, the application of the classical bi-Gaussian model for disjunctive kriging proves sub-optimal due to the spatial structuring of high and low values. The beta model which pertains to the class of Hermitian isofactorial models is potentially better suited to radiological evaluation as it allows a continuous evolution from a mosaic to a pure diffusive model. In the test case, disjunctive kriging estimates are obtained by applying in turn the beta model and the pure diffusive model. The comparison of estimation outcomes shows rather limited differences, primarily located in and around the homogeneous contaminated areas.     

Shear building representations of seismically isolated buildings

Seismic isolation, with its capability of reducing floor accelerations and interstory drifts simultaneously, is recognized as an earthquake resistant design method that protects contents of a building along with the building itself. In research studies, superstructures of seismically isolated buildings are commonly modeled as idealized shear buildings. Shear building representation corresponds to an idealized structure where the beams are infinitely stiff in flexure and axially inextensible; columns are axially inextensible; and rigid floors are supported on these columns. Although it is more convenient to model and analyze a shear building, such an idealization may influence the seismic responses of seismically isolated buildings. This study presents a comparison of the seismic performances of seismically isolated buildings with superstructures modeled as shear buildings to those with full three dimensional superstructures. Both linear and nonlinear base isolation systems with different isolation periods and superstructures with different number of stories are considered.     

Evaluation of site effects in the Aterno river valley (Central Italy) from aftershocks of the 2009 L��Aquila earthquake

A temporary network of 33 seismic stations was deployed in the area struck by the 6th April 2009, Mw 6.1 (Scognamiglio et?al. in Seism Res Lett 6/81, 2010), L??Aquila earthquake (central Italy), with the aim to investigate the site amplification within the Aterno river Valley. The seismograms of 18 earthquakes recorded by 14 of the 33 stations were used to evaluate the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for each site and the standard horizontal spectral ratio (SSR) between a site and a reference station. The obtained results have been compared to the geological and geophysical information in order to explain the resonance frequencies and the amplification levels with respect to surface geology of the valley. The results indicate that there is no uniform pattern of amplification, because of the complex geologic setting, as the thickness and degree of cementation of the deposits is highly variable.     

Vulnerability study on a large industrial area using satellite remotely sensed images

The aim of this paper is to disseminate knowledge in the seismic science community about a possible tool which is not largely popular, despite its potential usefulness. In this paper it will be shown how satellite remotely sensed images may represent a powerful source of information where traditional sources of information are unable to deliver it, or at least to do so timely. Even when traditional information flow can ensure delivery, an advantage may still be found in terms of sooner availability and smaller amount of labour required. In the case shown here a vulnerability study was made on a vast industrial area in the gulf of Siracusa, Sicily, Italy. A series of concurrent factors made it particularly troublesome to obtain information on the structures found in the site (tanks, pipes, chimneys, roads, ...), required to suitably carry out the study. Satellite images were then acquired to obtain the information needed. Processing of the images was carried out relying on in-house software formerly developed for similar information extraction issues, and integrated with new, specifically developed elements, some pieces of information were obtained useful for seismic risk evaluation. In particular, location, footprint, elevation of significant structures (e.g. tanks, chimneys) could be evaluated, obtaining results in a format compatible with the most widespread GIS (Geographic Information System) standards. Such compatibility allowed a considerable savings on labour time required to lay a GIS of the area, which is a fundamental tool for risk and vulnerability analyses.     

Strong ground motion simulation by the Empirical Green��s Function method for Bursa-Yalova Region, Turkey

In this study near field strong ground motion generation of Mw 6.9 scenario events on Gemlik Bay was presented at broadband frequency (0.5–10 Hz) ground motion at 9 stations. In the first stage of the study, focal mechanism of a small earthquake, which was used as the Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) throughout the scenario simulation, was decided by simulating it with a smaller magnitude event. The best waveform fitting was judged with the smallest misfit value. In the second stage, near field ground motion simulation of scenario events was performed. Calculations were achieved by considering three different rupture processes which have the same magnitude but different asperity locations. Fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scaling laws. It has been found that the peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocities reach maximum values of 1,440 cm/s² and 125 cm/s, respectively for the worst case scenario. Rupture directivity effect is observed with clear peaks at a forward station. The design spectra for Turkish seismic design code (TSDC 2007) were either nearly or actually exceeded by the scenario earthquakes at periods lower than 0.6  s at all near field stations. Majority of structures in the area were built to lower design spectra before the 1998 code was implemented. The strength of many structures would have been insufficient to resist the forces that may be generated by an earthquake that is similar to Scenario I and Scenario II in this study.