基于BP神经网络的地质灾害细网格预报模型

地质灾害成因复杂,其中以气象因素、地质地貌因素引发的地质灾害最为常见.以金华地区为例,通过对金华市地质地貌条件及其对地质灾害点的调查,将全区划分为4个地质灾害隐患风险等级的网格区域.在此基础上利用金华中尺度气象资料,采用BP神经网络模型,建立地质灾害细网格预报模型,对该模型进行模拟和预报试验.结果表明,合理的隐患风险等级分区能使预报模型更符合科学规律,而采用分布较细的中尺度资料作为预报因子能进一步提高预报精度.模型的预报结果达到一定的可信度,为防灾减灾工作提供了科学依据.     

青藏高原对不同纬向环流动力扰动的数值试验

本文采用σ坐标的三层初始方程模式,用数值试验方法,模拟了青藏高原对四种纬向基本气流的动力扰动:正压均—西风,正压急流型气流,斜压气流和夏季纬向平均气流。实验结果有助于认识青藏高原对东亚大气环流的动力作用。     

华东地区态矢量的研究

态矢量来源于统计物理学,是对连续场进行粗粒化描述的方法。尹祥础等把该方法移植到地震学中用以定量刻画地震活动性的演化,取得较好的结果。作者对华东地区1970年以来发生5级以上12次地震进行了分析,总结震前态矢量的变化情况,发现震前态矢量均有显著变化,为本地区地震趋势预测提供一定的参考价值。     

风廓线雷达回波信号强度定标方法

风廓线雷达返回信号功率定标通常通过返回信号信噪比和系统噪声功率的估算得到。该方法存在着噪声电平的确定、外部噪声等不确定性因素,影响了定标的精度。采用信号源分别对接收机和信号处理器进行定量测试,进而对雷达系统进行定标,是另一种可行的办法,该文利用这种方法对CFL-03风廓线雷达进行了定标,并利用该雷达在东莞2009年7月和8月探测资料与广州S波段天气雷达和地面雨量计资料进行比较。结果表明:用该定标方法得到的回波强度与天气雷达回波强度和地面雨量计资料估算的回波强度基本一致,平均标准差在1 dB左右,表明这种定标方法是可行的。     

基于Google API的地震信息地图发布系统

Google Map及相关工具功能强大,是可二次开发的地理信息平台。介绍运用Google MapAPI技术,实现动态实时更新的地震信息发布系统,并简单应用。     

南宁市夏季影响大气污染的气象条件分析

通过数值统计、相关分析方法对南宁市 2 0 0 1年夏季大气污染与气象条件的关系进行分析 ,得到一些初步结果 ,为南宁市的大气污染预报提供参考     

Simulation of evapotranspiration and carbon dioxide flux in the wheat‐maize rotation croplands of the North China Plain using the Simple Biosphere Model

The North China Plain, which is critical for food production in China, is encountering serious water shortage due to heavy agricultural water requirement. The accurate modelling of carbon dioxide flux and evapotranspiration (ET) in croplands is thus essential for yield prediction and water resources management. The land surface model is powerful in simulating energy and carbon dioxide fluxes between land and atmosphere. Some key processes in the Simple Biosphere Model (Version 2, SiB2) were parameterized based on the observations. The simulated fluxes were tested against the eddy covariance flux measurements over two typical winter wheat/maize double cropping fields. A simple diagnostic parameterisation of soil respiration, not included in SiB2, was added and calibrated using the observations to model the carbon budget. The Ball‐Berry stomatal conductance model was calibrated using observed leaf gas exchange rate, showing that the original SiB2 could significantly underpredict the ET in the wheat field. SiB2 significantly underpredicted soil resistance at the Weishan site, leading to overpredict the ET. Overall, there was a close agreement between the simulated and observed latent heat fluxes and net CO₂ exchange using the re‐parameterized SiB2. These findings are important when the model is used for the regional simulation in the North China Plain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hα Dimming Associated With the Eruption of a Coronal Sigmoid in the Quiet Sun

We report on the occurrence of Hα dimming associated with a sigmoid eruption in a quiet-sun region on 14 August 2001. The coronal sigmoid in soft X-ray images from the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope was located over an Hα filament channel. Its eruption was accompanied by a flare of GOES X-ray class C2.3 and possibly associated with a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed with the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraphs (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). During the eruption, coronal bipolar double dimming took place at the regions with opposite magnetic polarities around the two sigmoid ends, but the underlying chromospheric channel did not show observable changes corresponding to the coronal eruption. Different from the erupting coronal sigmoid itself, however, the coronal dimming had a detectable chromosphere counterpart, i.e., Hα dimming. By regarding the sigmoid as a coronal sign for a flux rope, these observations are explained in the framework of the flux rope model of CMEs. The flux rope is possibly deeply rooted in the chromosphere, and the coronal and Hα dimming regions mark its evacuated feet, through which the material is possibly fed to the halo CME.     

河南小秦岭金矿控矿条件分析及找矿前景

本文从矿源层控矿构造、区域变质、混合岩化、岩浆作用及多期次的热液成矿叠加作用等方面对金矿的控矿条件进行了较深入的分析，进一步提出了淘金沟─贵家峪一带为找金远景区；在文峪的深部可能有糜棱岩型或黄铁矿型金富集段的存在。