The equivalence of predictions from universal kriging and intrinsic random-function kriging

A proof is provided that the predictions obtained from kriging based on intrinsic random functions of orderk are identical to those obtained from anappropriate universal kriging model. This is a theoretical result based on known variability measures. It does not imply that people performing traditional universal kriging will get the same predictions as those using intrinsic random functions, because traditionally these methods differ in how variability is modeled. For intrinsic random functions, the same proof shows that predictions do not depend on the specific choice of the generalized covariance function. It is argued that the choice between these methods is really one of modeling and estimating the variability in the data.     

Volcanic geology and eruption frequency,São Miguel,Azores

Six volcanic zones comprise São Miguel, the largest island in the Azores. All are Quaternary in age except the last, which is partly Pliocene. From west to east the zones are (1) the trachyte stratovolcano of Sete Cidades, (2) a field of alkali-basalt cinder cones and lava flows with minor trachyte, (3) the trachyte stratovolcano of Agua de Pau, (4) a field of alkali-basalt cinder cones and lava flows with minor trachyte and tristanite, (5) the trachyte stratovolcano of Furnas, and (6) the Nordeste shield, which includes the Povoação caldera and consists of alkali basalt, tristanite, and trachyte. New radiocarbon and K-Ar ages augment stratigraphic data obtained during recent geologic mapping of the entire island and provide improved data to interpret eruption frequency. Average dormant intervals for the past approximately 3000 years in the areas active during that time are about 400 years for Sete Cidades, 145 for zone 2, 1150 for Agua de Pau, and 370 for Furnas. However, the average dormant interval at Sete Cidades increased from 400 to about 680 years before each of the past two eruptions, and the interval at Furnas decreased from 370 to about 195 years before each of the past four eruptions. Eruptions in zone 4 occurred about once every 1000 years during latest Pleistocene and early Holocene time; none has occurred for about 3000 years. The Povoação caldera truncates part of the Nordeste shield and probably formed during the middle to late Pleistocene. Calderas formed during latest Pleistocene time at the three younger stratovolcanoes in the sequence: outer Agua de Pau (between 46 and 26.5 ka), Sete Cidades (about 22 ka), inner Agua de Pau (15.2 ka), and Furnas (about 12 ka). Normal faults are common, but many are buried by Holocene trachyte pumice. Most faults trend northwest or west-northwest and are related to the Terceira rift, whose most active segment on São Miguel passes through Sete Cidades and zone 2. A major normal fault displaces Nordeste lavas 150–250 m and may mark the location of an ancestral Terceira rift. Recent seismicity (e.g., in the 1980s) generally has been scattered, but some small earthquake swarms have occurred beneath the north-eastern flank of Agua de Pau.     

Modeling basin-scale hydrology in support of physical climate and global biogeochemical studies: An example using the Zambezi River

Human activity is an important agent defining the contemporary hydrologic cycle. We have documented the potential impacts of impoundment, land use change and climate change on the Zambezi River system in southern Africa and found that they can be substantial. A full analysis requires construction and parameterization of a simulation for the entire catchment. This paper develops a strategy for implementing catchment-scale models of the major hydrologic processes operating within the basin. A coherent data set for calibrating the models has also been assembled. The algorithms consist of a Water Balance (WBM) and a Water Transport (WTM) operating at 1/2^o spatial scale and at monthly timesteps. These models transform complex patterns of regional climatology into estimates of soil water, evapotranspiration, runoff, and discharge through rivers of various size. The models are dependent on the characteristics of the terrestrial surface, principally soil texture and land cover. A simulated river network is also required. Additional tabular data sets are essential for model testing and calibration. These include subcatchment areas; observed river discharge at selected points; flooding, storage and loss characteristics of major wetlands; floodwave translation; and, volume, surface area, withdrawal and evaporative losses from impoundments. An important design consideration for the numerous impoundments in the Zambezi requires an understanding of the seasonal variation in discharge, in particular how it might respond to climate and land use change. The research strategy offered here lays a framework for addressing such issues. Although the primary focus of this work is hydrologic, we discuss how the model can be extended to consider constituent transport and biogeochemical cycling issues at the continental scale.     

Geology and petrology of Mahukona Volcano,Hawaii

The submarine Mahukona Volcano, west of the island of Hawaii, is located on the Loa loci line between Kahoolawe and Hualalai Volcanoes. The west rift zone ridge of the volcano extends across a drowned coral reef at about-1150 m and a major slope break at about-1340 m, both of which represent former shoreines. The summit of the volcano apparently reached to about 250 m above sea level (now at-1100 m depth) did was surmounted by a roughly circular caldera. A econd rift zone probably extended toward the east or sutheast, but is completely covered by younger lavas from the adjacent subaerial volcanoes. Samples were vecovered from nine dredges and four submersible lives. Using subsidence rates and the compositions of flows which drape the dated shoreline terraces, we infer that the voluminous phase of tholeiitic shield growth ended about 470 ka, but tholeiitic eruptions continued until at least 435 ka. Basalt, transitional between tholeiitic and alkalic basalt, erupted at the end of tholeiitic volcanism, but no postshield-alkalic stage volcanism occurred. The summit of the volcano apparently subcided below sea level between 435 and 365 ka. The tholeiitic lavas recovered are compositionally diverse.     

A mechanism for preferential H2O leakage from fluid inclusions in quartz,based on TEM observations

Preferential leakage of H₂O from fluid inclusions containing multiple gas components has been suspected in natural metamorphic rocks and has been demonstrated experimentally for synthetic H₂O-CO₂-rich inclusions in natural quartz. Knowledge of the physical and chemical characteristics of the leakage mechanism, which may be very complex, increases the value of natural fluid inclusions to metamorphic geology. It is proposed that crystal defects play a major role in nondecrepitative preferential H₂O leakage through quartz, and remain effective during metamorphism. Inclusions with either an internal overpressure or underpressure produce strain in the adjacent quartz crystal via the nucleation of many dislocations and planar defects (like Dauphiné twin boundaries). These defects allow preferential loss of H₂O from H₂O-CO₂-rich inclusions at supercritical conditions. The transport capacity of this leakage mechanism is enhanced by nucleation of small bubbles on defect structures. The nucleation of these bubbles seems to be a recovery process in strained crystals. Solubility gradients of quartz in water in a crystal with internally underpressurized inclusions may result in optical visible implosion halos in a three dimensional spatial arrangement, caused by the growth of small bubbles at the expense of the larger original fluid inclusion. Natural fluid inclusions from Naxos (Greece) are always associated with numerous interlinked dislocations. These dislocations may have been produced by plastic derormation or by crystal growth related processes (e.g. crack healing). The presence of small bubbles on these dislocations indicates that a similar leakage mechanism for H₂O must have occurred in these rocks.     

Soil hydrophobic effects on infiltration and catchment runoff

After dry summers or drought, eucalypt forest soils at two sites in southeastern Australia developed hydrophobic or non-wetting surface characteristics that reduced infiltration, measured using a sprinkling infiltrometer. At one site the development of hydrophobic conditions caused the rainfall to runoff conversion efficiency of a forested catchment to increase from 5 per cent to 15 per cent. Under non-hydrophobic conditions at this site, grassland always generated more runoff than forest. However, one major rainfall-runoff was recorded at a time of highly hydrophobic forest soil conditions and this storm generated greater runoff on the forested catchment than the grassland catchment. At the second site forest soils have naturally highly conductive surface layers because of a dense network of macropores and pathways for preferential flow. Hydrophobic conditions produced by drought caused soil water movement to be confined to only a few of the larger macropores exposed to surface ponded water. Even so, infiltration rates remained relatively high so that the impacts of hydrophobic soils were not translated into increased catchment runoff as at the first site.     

Kornerupine in Mg-Al-rich gneisses from Namaqualand,South Africa: mineralogy and evidence for late-metamorphic fluid activity

Three kornerupine occurrences are reported in distinctive SiO₂-poor, MgO- and Al₂O₃-rich paragneisses from the Namaqualand Metamorphic Complex in South Africa. Kornerupine coexists stably with phlogopite, cordierite, orthopyroxene, gedrite, sapphirine, sillimanite and plagioclase and, in sapphirine-free rocks, with spinel and corundum. Tourmaline of a texturally older generation than kornerupine is commonly present in the same samples.Ten analysed kornerupines show a variation in total Fe as FeO from 1.8 to 10.9 weight per cent. B₂O₃ contents are estimated from x-ray data and a few spectrochemical analyses to range from 0.9 to 3.5 weight per cent. There is a strong inverse correlation between B³⁺ and Al³⁺. Total iron content has a strong and systematic effect on refractive index, colour and dispersion. Fe and Mg are systematically partitioned with the other minerals, and Mg/(Mg+Fe) ratios increase as follows: spinel 相似文献   

The status and prospects of risk assessment

After discussing the changing nature of perceived risk problems, the status of risk assessment is described in relation to its origins and in particular to its roots in the environmental impact statement process. The nature of risk, its component elements and the manner in which existing concepts of risk have been reflected in risk assessment methods are described. The paper considers two emerging schools of thought in current risk assessment studies: one that calls for more accurate measures of risk and increasingly comprehensive event prediction models to determine risk acceptability and another which argues that the acceptance of risk is less dependent on the accuracy of risk analyses than it is on the nature of the decision-making process and in particular on whether compensation is provided for those bearing a disproportionate share of risk.     

A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture

This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO₂ are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.