Applicability of the ACE algorithm for multiple regression in hydrogeology

This paper introduces the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) algorithm of Breiman and Friedman (J Am Stat Assoc 80:580–619, 1985) for estimating the transformations of a response and a set of predictor variables in multiple regression problems in hydrogeology. The proposed nonparametric approach can be applied easily for estimating the optimal transformations of different hydrogeological data to obtain maximum correlation between observed variables. The approach does not require a priori assumptions of a functional form, and the optimal transformations are derived solely based on the data set. The advantages and applicability of this new approach to solve different multiple regression problems in hydrogeology or in Earth Sciences are illustrated by means of theoretical investigations and case studies. It is demonstrated that the ACE method has certain advantages in some fitting problems of hydrogeology over the traditional multiple regression. Based on our knowledge, this is the first application of the ACE algorithm to analyze and interpret groundwater data.     

Characterization and low-cost treatment of an industrial arid soil polluted with lead sulfide in northern Chile

Lead (Pb) dust exposure can have detrimental environmental and human health effects. Improperly enclosed stockpiles of Pb concentrates can cause dust emissions, subsequent pollution of the soil and environmental risk. The aim of this work was to study Pb form, distribution and immobilization (by using eggshell and seashell) in an industrial arid soil near a storage area of Pb mineral concentrates in northern Chile. High amounts of sulfur (S; 9900 mg kg^?1) and Pb (6530 mg kg^?1) were found in the polluted soil. The energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy analysis revealed a lead sulfide (PbS: galena). Metallic Pb particles, which were between 41 and 46 µm, were identified in the soil. After eggshell and seashell (20%) were applied, the soil pH increased from 6.0 to 7.84 and 8.07, respectively. In the studied soil, the leaching test showed a 59 mg L^?1 average Pb extractable concentration. After 240 days, extractable Pb by toxicity characteristics leaching procedure decreased to 4.79 mg L^?1 (93.3%) with the application of seashell at 20% compared with a decrease of 33.33 mg L^?1 (53.6%) using eggshell. Pb in the polluted soil was mainly found in the exchangeable fraction (66%), followed by the reducible (24%), residual (7%) and oxidizable (6%) fractions. According to the risk assessment code, the contaminated soil before treatment was classified as very high risk. Adding eggshell (20%) and seashell (20%) decreased the exchangeable fractions to 39 and 35%, respectively. Applying these liming materials achieved Pb immobilization in the soil, but the soil remained in the high environmental risk category. We conclude that the application of seashell waste, resulting from high aquaculture activity, opens an interesting window to the treatment of contaminated arid soils.     

Assessing the spatial probability of landslides using GIS and informative value model in the Bamenda highlands

Landslides are a major natural hazard in the Bamenda highlands of Cameroon, and their occurrence in this region has most often been studied using qualitative methods. The aim of this research is to quantitatively assess the spatial probability of landslides using GIS and the informative value model. Landslide inventory was done through literature review, aerial photo-interpretation, participatory GIS and field survey. Six geo-environmental factors including slope, curvature, aspect, land use, lithology and geomorphology were used as landslide conditioning (static) factors. The susceptibility of the area to future landslide events was assessed by making a correlation between past landslides and geo-environmental factors using the informative value model. The landslide inventory involving 110 landslides was divided into two equal groups using random division criterion and was used to train and validate the model. The analysis showed that slope and land use are the most important causal factors of landslides in the area. The susceptibility index map predicted most landslides to occur around the steep slopes of the Bamenda escarpment that is being used for multiple anthropic activities. The training model had a success rate of 87%, and the validation model had a prediction rate of 90%. The prediction rate curve shows that 44, 32, 18 and 6% of future landslides will occur on 3, 8, 21 and 68% of the study area. The model correctly classified 89% of unstable areas and 81% of the stable areas with an accuracy rate of 0.90. This quantitative result complement other qualitative assessment results that show the Bamenda escarpment zone as a high-risk area. However, the area susceptible to landslide in this study goes beyond what earlier studies had indicated as houses and other infrastructure were found on old landslide sites whose scars have been eroded by human activities. This new input thus improves the quality of information placed at the disposal of civil protection units and land use managers during decision making.     

Reconstruction of recent sea-level change using testate amoebae

Proxy-based sea-level reconstructions place the instrumentally observed rates of recent sea-level rise in a longer term context by providing data that extend the instrumental sea-level record into past centuries. This paper presents the first sea-level reconstructions based on analyses of testate amoebae, to test their ability to produce high-precision reconstructions of past sea level. We present two reconstructions for the past 100 yr from sites in Maine (USA) and Nova Scotia (Canada) based on short cores from salt marshes, and modern training data from North America and the United Kingdom. These are compared with tide-gauge records and reconstructions based on foraminifera from the same cores. The reconstructions show good agreement with both the tide-gauge data and the foraminifera-based reconstructions. The UK data perform well in predicting known elevations of North American surface samples and produce sea-level reconstructions very similar to those based on the North American data, suggesting the methodology is robust across large geographical areas. We conclude that testate amoebae have the potential to provide robust, higher precision sea-level reconstructions for the past few centuries if modern transfer functions are improved and core sites are located within the main zone of testate amoebae occurrence on the salt marsh.     

Seismic anisotropy of the mantle lithosphere beneath the Swedish National Seismological Network (SNSN)

Body-wave analysis — shear-wave splitting and P travel time residuals — detect anisotropic structure of the upper mantle beneath the Swedish part of Fennoscandia. Geographic variations of both the splitting measurements and the P-residual spheres map regions of different fabrics of the mantle lithosphere. The fabric of individual mantle domains is internally consistent, usually with sudden changes at their boundaries. Distinct backazimuth dependence of SKS splitting excludes single-layer anisotropy models with horizontal symmetry axes for the whole region. Based upon joint inversion of body-wave anisotropic parameters, we instead propose 3D self-consistent anisotropic models of well-defined mantle lithosphere domains with differently oriented fabrics approximated by hexagonal aggregates with plunging symmetry axes. The domain-like structure of the Precambrian mantle lithosphere, most probably retaining fossil fabric since the domains' origin, supports the idea of the existence of an early form of plate tectonics during the formation of continental cratons already in the Archean. Similarly to different geochemical and geological constraints, the 3D anisotropy modelling and mapping of fabrics of the lithosphere domains contribute to tracking plate tectonics regimes back in time.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

The dependence of albite feldspar dissolution kinetics on fluid saturation state at acid and basic pH: Progress towards a universal relation

Here we report on two separate ongoing, multi-year investigations on the dependence of the dissolution rate (R) of albite feldspar on fluid saturation state, as defined by the Gibbs free energy of reaction (ΔG_r) for dissolution. The investigations are based on dissolution at pH 9.2, 150 °C and pH 3.3, 100 °C. Both studies reveal that the R–ΔG_r relation is highly non-linear and sigmoidal. The kinetic data from the first study, being the most complete, can be fitted with a sigmoidal rate curve that is composed of two separate, parallel rate laws that represent distinct mechanisms of dissolution. The switch between one dominant mechanism and the other may be controlled by a critical free energy. The fact that in both studies the same type of sigmoidal R–ΔG_r relation exists for dissolution at different pH and temperature condition suggests that this behavior may be universal for albite and other feldspars. Moreover, the experimental data contradict the commonly used R–ΔG_r relation that is loosely based on transition state theory (TST). This has important implications with respect to the accuracy of geochemical codes that model water–rock interactions at near-equilibrium conditions.     

Towards an operational aqueous phase chemistry mechanism for regional chemistry-transport models: CAPRAM-RED and its application to the COSMO-MUSCAT model

Mechanism reductions of the detailed aqueous phase chemistry mechanism CAPRAM 3.0i are performed. Manual methods and automatic techniques are both applied in order to provide a less computationally intensive mechanism which is operational in regional chemistry transport models (CTMs). The finally reduced mechanism contains less than 200 reactions (4 times smaller than the detailed CAPRAM 3.0i) and describes the main characteristics of inorganic and organic aqueous phase processes occurring in tropospheric warm clouds. Most of the chemical reduction potential is realized in the CAPRAM 3.0i organic chemistry. The number of aqueous phase species decreases from 380 in the full mechanism to 130 in the final reduced version. The calculated percentage deviations between the full and reduced mechanism are on average below 5% for the most important organic and inorganic target compounds such as oxidants, inorganic and organic acids, carbonyls and alcohols. Comparisons of the required CPU times between the full and reduced mechanisms show reductions of approximately 40%. 2-D test simulations with the CTM MUSCAT were performed using prescribed meteorological conditions in order to examine the applicability of the reduced mechanism at regional scale. Simulations with the reduced CAPRAM 3.0i mechanism and a much less complex mechanism with only limited inorganic chemistry (INORG) were compared to evaluate the effects of more detailed chemistry. The model results show large differences in the level of oxidants and the inorganic and organic mass processing. Prospectively, the reduced mechanism represents the basis for studying aerosol cloud processing effects at regional scale with future CTMs and will allow more adequate interpretation of field data.     

Quantitative inferences of past hypolimnetic anoxia and nutrient levels from a Canadan Precambrian Shield lake

Paleolimnological analyses were used to infer limnological changes during the past ~ 300 yrs in the west basin of Peninsula Lake, a small (853 ha) Precambrian Shield lake in Ontario, Canada, that has been subjected to moderate cultural disturbances (forest clearance, cottage and resort development). This study represents a pioneering attempt to use sedimentary chironomid assemblages and weighted-averaging models to quantify past hypolimnetic anoxia (expressed as the anoxic factor, AF). Impacts of forest clearance and human land-use on deepwater oxygen availability and surface water quality were assessed by comparing chironomid-inferred AF and diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentration ([TP]) to changes in terrestrial pollen and historical data. This study also discusses the ability of chironomids to quantitatively infer changes in AF.Pre-disturbance chironomid assemblages were stable and dominated by taxa indicative of oxygen-rich hypolimnetic conditions (e.g., Protanypus, Heterotrissocladius, Micropsectra type), while diatoms indicated oligotrophic lake status (diatom inferred [TP] = 5-7 g·l^-1). Chironomids characteristic of lower oxygen availability (e.g., Chironomus, Procladius) increased following land-clearance, road construction, establishment of a grist mill and lakeshore development beginning ca. 1870. Increased abundances of Tanytarsus s. lat., a multigeneric group of mainly littoral chironomids, since 1900, indicated that littoral chironomids may have comprised a greater proportion of fossil assemblages during periods of eutrophication and prolonged anoxia. Abundances of meso-eutrophic diatom taxa (e.g., Fragilaria crotonensis, Asterionella formosa, Aulacoseira ambigua, A. subarctica) increased concurrent with European settlement (ca. 1870) and diatom-inferred [TP] doubled (~ 6-12 g·l^-1), further indicating that naturally-oligotrophic Precambrian Shield lakes were extremely sensitive to initial land-clearance activities.Recent increases in oligotrophic diatom taxa (e.g., Cyclotella stelligera) indicate a shift to more oligotrophic conditions since ca. mid-1960s, with greatest changes since ca. 1980. The chironomids Heterotrissocladius and Micropsectra type also increased at this time suggesting greater deepwater oxygen availability. These recent water-quality improvements, possibly in response to enhanced nutrient removal from detergents and sewage, climate-related reductions in external phosphorus loads, and catchment (but not lake) acidification and reforestation, suggest that habitat for commercially-valuable cold-water fishes has improved in recent decades despite greater recreational lake-use.Paleolimnological assessment of trophic status changes in Peninsula Lake using fossil diatom and chironomid assemblages were in good agreement. Diatom inferences of [TP] and chironomid inferences of AF both suggest that Peninsula Lake was historically oligotrophic, became oligo-mesotrophic after European settlement, and returned to oligotrophy in recent yrs. Chironomid inferences of [TP] consistently underestimated the trophic status of Peninsula Lake, possibly due to its relatively large hypolimnion. These results suggest that AF represents a useful tool for quantitatively reconstructing the past trophic status of deeper, stratified lakes.