Process-based forward numerical ecological modeling for carbonate sedimentary basins

Nowadays, numerical modeling is a common tool used in the study of sedimentary basins, since it allows to quantify the processes simulated and to determine interactions among them. One of such programs is SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, a 3D forward-model process-based code to simulate the sedimentation in a marine basin at a geological time scale. It models the fluid flow, siliciclastic transport and sedimentation, and carbonate production. In this article, we present the last improvements in the carbonate production model, in particular about the usage of Generalized Lotka-Volterra equations that include logistic growth and interaction among species. Logistic growth is constrained by environmental parameters such as water depth, energy of the medium, and depositional profile. The environmental parameters are converted to factors and combined into one single environmental value to model the evolution of species. The interaction among species is quantified using the community matrix that captures the beneficial or detrimental effects of the presence of each species on the other. A theoretical example of a carbonate ramp is computed to show the interaction among carbonate and siliciclastic sediment, the effect of environmental parameters to the modeled species associations, and the interaction among these species associations. The distribution of the modeled species associations in the theoretical example presented is compared with the carbonate Oligocene-Miocene Asmari Formation in Iran and the Miocene Ragusa Platform in Italy.     

Measurement of the radius of Mercury by radio occultation during the MESSENGER flybys

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft completed three flybys of Mercury in 2008–2009. During the first and third of those flybys, MESSENGER passed behind the planet from the perspective of Earth, occulting the radio-frequency (RF) transmissions. The occultation start and end times, recovered with 0.1 s accuracy or better by fitting edge-diffraction patterns to the RF power history, are used to estimate Mercury's radius at the tangent point of the RF path. To relate the measured radius to the planet shape, we evaluate local topography using images to identify the high-elevation feature that defines the RF path or using altimeter data to quantify surface roughness. Radius measurements are accurate to 150 m, and uncertainty in the average radius of the surrounding terrain, after adjustments are made from the local high at the tangent point of the RF path, is 350 m. The results are consistent with Mercury's equatorial shape as inferred from observations by the Mercury Laser Altimeter and ground-based radar. The three independent estimates of radius from occultation events collectively yield a mean radius for Mercury of 2439.2±0.5 km.     

Mafic dykes derived from Early Cretaceous depleted mantle beneath the Dabie orogenic belt: implications for changing lithosphere mantle beneath Eastern China

SHRIMP zircon U–Pb geochronological, elemental and Sr–Nd isotopic data from Early Cretaceous mafic dykes in North Dabie orogenic belt elucidate a change of Mesozoic lithospheric mantle in eastern China. The dykes are predominantly dolerite with the major mineral assemblage clinopyroxene + hornblende + plagioclase and yield a SHRIMP zircon U–Pb age of 111.6 ± 5.3 Ma. They have a narrow range of SiO₂ from 46.16% to 49.78%, and relative low concentrations of K₂O (1.07−2.62%), Na₂O (2.45−3.54%), Al₂O₃ (13.04−14.07%), and P₂O₅ (0.42−0.55%) but relatively high concentration of MgO (5.94–6.61%) with Mg^# 52–54. All the samples are characterized by enrichment of large ion lithophile elements (LILE, e.g., Ba, Th) and high field strength elements (HFSE, e.g., Nb, Ti). (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i ratios from 0.704 to 0.705, ε_Nd values from 3.36 to 4.33 and mantle‐depletion Nd model ages (T_2DM) in the range 0.56–0.64 Ga indicate that the magma of the Baiyashan mafic dykes was derived from a young depleted mantle source. This finding is different from previous research on mafic dykes in the age range 120–138 Ma that revealed enrichment of LILE and depletion of HFSE, high initial Sr isotopic ratios and negative ε_Nd, value which represents an old enriched mantle source. Ours is the first report of the existence of Early Cretaceous depleted mantle in eastern China and it implies that changing of enriched mantle to depleted mantle occurred at ca. 112 Ma, associated with back‐arc extension which resulted from the subduction of the Palaeo‐Pacific Plate towards the Asian Continent. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Setting new thermal standards for transitional and coastal (TraC) waters

The construction of a new generation of coastal power stations in the UK and other western European countries has highlighted the absence of robust standards for thermal discharges to transitional and coastal waters. The proposed discharge volumes are greater than hitherto, yet there has been little independent critical examination of their potential impact, whilst much of the existing guidance has been adapted from freshwater practice. This review considers the available knowledge on the tolerance and behaviour of fish and other marine biota to heated effluents. Appropriate ways are suggested of grouping fish species to reflect their sensitivity to thermal effects. The plethora of existing standards are considered and their validity assessed in a framework of predicted seawater temperature rise. Those species or groups of organisms most likely to be affected are identified and finally specific recommendations for thermal standards consistent with long term sustainability are proposed.     

A Method for Direct Assessment of the “Non Rainfall” Atmospheric Water Cycle: Input and Evaporation From the Soil

“Non rainfall” atmospheric water (dew, fog, vapour adsorption) supplies a small amount of water to the soil surface that may be important for arid soil micro-hydrology and ecology. Research into the direct effects of this water on soil is, however, lacking due to instrument and technical constraints. We report on the design, development, construction and findings of an automated microlysimeter instrument to directly measure this soil water cycle in Stellenbosch, South Africa during winter. Performance of the microlysimeter was satisfactory and results obtained were compared to literature and fell within the expected range. “Non rainfall” atmospheric water input into bare soil (river sand) was between 0.88 and 1.10?mm per night while evaporation was between 1.39 and 2.71?mm per day. The study also attempted to differentiate the composition of “non rainfall” atmospheric water and results showed that vapour adsorption contributed the bulk of this input.     

Modeling the effects of historical vegetation change on near-surface atmosphere in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Our goal was to evaluate effects of broad-scale changes in vegetation from grasslands to shrublands over the past 150 years on near-surface atmosphere over the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, using a regional climate model. Simulations were conducted using 1858 and 1998 vegetation maps, and data collected in the field. Overall, the vegetation shift led to small changes in sensible heat (SH) and an increase in latent heat (LH). The impacts of shrub encroachment depended on shrubland type: conversion from grass to mesquite cools the near-surface atmosphere and from grass to creosotebush warms it. Higher albedo of mesquite relative to grasses reduced available energy, which was dissipated mainly as LH due to the deeper root system in mesquite. In creosotebush-dominated areas, a decrease in albedo, an increase in roughness length and displacement height contributed to the SH increase and warmer temperatures. Sensitivity simulations showed that an increase in soil moisture content enhanced shrub LH and a reduction in mesquite cover enhanced the temperature differences. The observed shift in vegetation led to complex interactions between land and surface fluxes, demonstrating that vegetation itself is a weather and climate variable as it significantly influences temperature and humidity.     

Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Slope stability modelling with SINMAP in a settlement area of the Swabian Alb

During the last decades, damages to houses caused by landslides have been consistently occurring in a residential area in Öschingen/Germany. The residential area is located in ductile Callovian clays (Jurassic). Furthermore, in the back slope of the research area, a large Pleistocene slide mass negatively influences the slope stability. Through an integrative approach, the maximum data available for the study area was compiled in order to create a susceptibility map for landslide hazard. Detailed geomorphological field survey provided a valuable base for the assessment of slope stability using Stability Index Mapping (SINMAP). In the framework of long-term studies, consolidated results concerning mass movements and climatic-driven Pleistocene slope evolution, as well as recent slope dynamics, could be gained. These outcomes are compared to the results provided by slope stability modelling with SINMAP. The calculations outline some parameters responsible for higher risks. In general, the interaction of topography, water balances and substrate at the Schönberger Kapf can be designated to cause instability in wide areas. Hydrological parameters are essential for destabilisation of slope and they cause at least temporally destabilisation along channel structures, which presumably are influenced by seasonally increased spring discharge and a reduction in the underground shear strength. The exceptional dimension of the rotational block in connection with the specific slope hydrologic conditions and the intensive anthropogenic impact in the rear slope of the building area Auchtert in Öschingen has to be termed very problematic on the basis of the studies carried out.     

Predisposition and cause of the catastrophic landslides of August 2005 in Brienz (Switzerland)

Very intensive rainfall in August 2005 (>300 mm/3 days) triggered moderately deep (2–10 m) landslides of about 50'000 m³ volume each in two mountain torrent catchments above the village of Brienz (Berner Oberland, Switzerland). These landslides – originating in Trachtbach and Glyssibach catchments – transformed into extremely rapid (>5 m/s) debris flows, which caused significant damage in inhabited areas; two persons lost their lives and about twenty-five families became homeless. The Brienz case was the most damaging one among many landslide disasters occurring during those rainy days in the Swiss Alps. In this paper we study in detail the predisposition and causes of the 2005 landslides in the Brienz area, based on field mapping, analysis of high resolution images and digital terrain models, derived from LIDAR and infrared measurements taken before and after the event. The features of these landslides are compared with past and dormant landslides in the mid-slope portion of the mountain chain north of Brienz, which has been the source of many catastrophic mass wasting events during the last centuries. Detailed field mapping shows that highly weathered series of strongly overconsolidated Mesozoic marls (Diphyoides Limestone & Vitznau Marls of Valanginian age) and their residual soils form the primary source for the sliding materials. The rupture surfaces of the moderately deep landslides often run at the transition from saprolite to weathered bedrock, with a dip angle of about 40o in the landslide depletion area. These landslides transform into debris flows, where debris slides into strongly convergent hillslopes or directly into headwater channels.     

Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.