Peculiarities of artificial ionospheric radiation under the action of high-power HF radiowaves, emitted by the SPEAR facility, on the sporadic E layer of the polar ionosphere

The results of the experimental studies of the ionospheric effects originating under the action of high-power HF radiowaves, emitted by the SPEAR heating facility into the sporadic E _s layer of the polar ionosphere, are presented. The experiment was performed on March 2, 2007, simultaneously at two spaced points: Barentsburg (Spitsbergen, a distance of about 40 km from the SPEAR facility) and Gor’kovskaya observatory near St. Petersburg, located at a distance of about 2000 km from SPEAR. The distributions of the heating signal intensity in the 100 kHz frequency band were measured in Barentsburg. Bistatic backscatter of diagnostic HF signals by small-scale artificial ionospheric irregularities was observed at Gor’kovskaya observatory. Based on an analysis of the experimental data obtained in Barentsburg, it has been found out that a broadband noise-like component originated and additional maximums appeared in the heating signal spectrum. The broadband emission intensity was a factor of 1.5–3 as high as the noise level. The additional maximums were formed in the regions of the positive and negative frequency shift relative to the heating signal frequency and were observed when the heating frequency was lower than the critical frequency of the E _s layer; e.g., a high-power HF radiowave reflected from E _s . The expression for determining the frequency shift of the additional maximum in the heating signal spectrum at altitudes of the ionospheric E region, taking into account the ion-electron collision frequency, has been obtained. The heating signal spectrum registration was compared with the observations of small-scale artificial ionospheric irregularities and the trajectory modeling of signals scattered by the considered irregularities. The observation results have been analyzed and interpreted taking into account the magnetic and ionospheric data characterizing the background geophysical conditions.     

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

Interaction of Tectonic and Surface Geological Processes

1. Introduction to surface processesThe shape or morphology of Earth's surface is basically the result of the interplay between two competing forces - mountain building and erosion. Tectonic forces, driven by thermal energy from Earth's interior, cause the rocks of the crust to be folded, faulted and uplifted into high plateaus and mountain belts. As soon as uplift begins, the processes of erosion, driven by gravity, start to wear away the rocks. Masses of weathered rock move downhill under t…     

The generation of non aspect sensitive plasma density irregularities by field aligned drifts in the lower ionosphere

A theory of the generation of plasma density irregularities with virtually no aspect sensitivity, in the lower ionosphere at high latitudes, by electron drifts aligned with the geomagnetic field, is presented. The theory is developed through fluid equations in which the destabilising mechanism involves positive feedback from electron collisional heating. When field aligned electron drift speeds exceed a few km s^–1, this effect destabilises waves with wavelengths in excess of a few tens of metres in the lower E-region, where collisional effects are sufficiently large. Furthermore, the threshold conditions are almost independent of the wave propagation direction and the unstable waves propagate at speeds well below the ion acoustic speed. The role that this new instability may play in recent radar backscatter observations of short scale irregularities propagating in directions close to that of the geomagnetic field, in the lower E-region is also considered.     

Determination of High Field Strength Elements, Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi at ng g−1 Levels in Geological Reference Materials by Magnetic Sector ICP-MS after HF/HClO4 High Pressure Digestion

Six low abundance rock reference materials (basalt BIR-1, dunite DTS-1, dolerite DNC-1, peridotite PCC-1, serpentine UB-N and basalt TAFAHI) have been analysed for high field strength elements (Zr, Nb, Hf, Ta, Th and U), Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi at ng g⁻¹ levels (in rock) by magnetic sector inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry after HF/HClO₄ high pressure decomposition. The adopted method uses only indium as an internal standard. Detection limits were found to be in the range of 0.08 to 16.2 pg ml⁻¹ in solution (equivalent to 0.08 to 16.2 ng g⁻¹ in rock). Our data for high field strength elements, Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi for the six selected low abundance geological reference materials show general agreement with previously published data. Our Ta values in DTS-1 and PCC-1 (1.3 and 0.5 ng g⁻¹) are lower than in previously published studies, providing smooth primitive mantle distribution patterns. Lower values were also found for Tl in BIR-1, DTS-1 and PCC-1 (2, 0.4 and 0.8 ng g⁻¹). Compared with quadrupole ICP-MS studies, the proposed magnetic sector ICP-MS method can generally provide better detection limits, so that the measurement of high field strength elements, Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi at ng g⁻¹ levels can be achieved without pre-concentration, ion exchange separation or other specialised techniques.     

MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR LIQUID-SOLID TWO-PHASE FLOW

I INTRODUCTIONTurbulence models for single-phase fluid flows have been developed and widely applied in mechanical,aeronautical, environmental and hydraulic engineering, and other fields. The closure techniques for theReynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for various levels of models including the simple turbulencemodel, one-equation turbulence model, k-s turbulence model and turbulence stress/flux model have beenverified to be physically reasonable and have acceptable accuracy in app…     

Bidirectional Type III Solar Radio Bursts

Bidirectional coronal type III bursts are modeled by combining a model of coronal electron heating and beam generation via time-of-flight effects with semiquantitative estimates of quasilinear relaxation. Electromagnetic emissivities are estimated by extending the recently developed theory of interplanetary type III bursts to coronal emissions, including its features of stochastic Langmuir-wave growth and three-wave interactions. The results are investigated for heating on open and closed coronal field lines and are compared with observations of normal, reverse-slope, bidirectional, and inverted-J and -U coronal type III radio bursts. Harmonic emission is predicted to dominate at plasma frequencies above roughly 100 MHz where the efficiency of fundamental emission falls off steeply, while its free-free reabsorption rises. The model also explains the observed trends in the likelihood of occurrence of normal, reverse-slope, and bidirectional coronal type III bursts.     

Seasonal Variability of Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent Using Visible Satellite Data

In this paper we use a satellite‐derived data set to explore spatial and temporal variations of snow extent across Northern Hemisphere continents during the last three decades. These weekly visible‐wavelength satellite maps of Northern Hemisphere snow extent produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration constitute the longest consistently‐derived satellite record of any environmental variable. We document the considerable intra‐annual variability of snow extent, and show that during each month, fluctuations over relatively small areas are responsible for the majority of the year‐to‐year variability. Regions that cover less than 6% of Northern Hemisphere lands north of 20°N explain 62% Ã Â Ã Â 92% of the interannual variance across the continents. On average, snow was more extensive across both Eurasia and North America from the 1970s to middle 1980s than during the late 1980s to late 1990s. During late winter, spring and summer, snow extent has decreased since the middle 1980s, while during fall to middle winter, snow extent has remained relatively constant. Accurate information on continental snow extent is critical for weather and hydrologic forecasting; for understanding hemispheric‐scale atmospheric circulation, thermal variations, and regional snow extent; and for using snow as a credible indicator of climate variability and change.