The End of Sustainability

It is time to move past the concept of sustainability. The realities of the Anthropocene warrant this conclusion. They include unprecedented and irreversible rates of human-induced biodiversity loss, exponential increases in per-capita resource consumption, and global climate change. These factors combine to create an increasing likelihood of rapid, nonlinear, social and ecological regime changes. The recent failure of the Rio + 20 provides an opportunity to collectively reexamine—and ultimately move past—the concept of sustainability as an environmental goal. We must face the impossibility of defining—let alone pursuing—a goal of “sustainability” in a world characterized by such extreme complexity, radical uncertainty and lack of stationarity. After briefly examining sustainability's failure, we propose resilience thinking as one possible new orientation and point to the challenges associated with translating resilience theory into policy application.     

Modelling indicators of water security,water pollution and aquatic biodiversity in Europe

Abstract

The GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model for indicating human water security has been extended with a newly developed module for calculating pollutant concentrations. This module is first described and then illustrated by being used to model nitrogen, phosphorus and organic matter concentrations. The module uses solely input variables that are likely to be available for future scenarios, making it possible to apply the module to such scenarios. The module first calculates pollutant loading from land to rivers, lakes and wetlands by considering drivers such as agriculture, industry and sewage treatment. Calculated loadings are subsequently converted to concentrations by considering aquatic processes, such as dilution, downstream transport, evaporation, human water abstraction and biophysical loss processes. Aquatic biodiversity is indicated to be at risk if modelled pollutant concentrations exceed certain water quality standards. This is indicated to be the case in about 35% of the European area, especially where lakes and wetlands are abundant. Human water security is indicated to be at risk where human water demands cannot be fulfilled during drought events. This is found to be the case in about 10% of the European area, especially in Mediterranean, arid and densely-populated areas. Modelled spatial variation in concentrations matches well with existing knowledge, and the temporal variability of concentrations is modelled reasonably well in some river basins. Therefore, we conclude that the updated GWAVA model can be used for indicating changes in human water security and aquatic biodiversity across Europe.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Dumont, E., Williams, R., Keller, V., Voss, A., and Tattari, S., 2012. Modelling indicators of water security, water pollution and aquatic biodiversity in Europe. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1378–1403.     

Aeolian dynamics over a coastal foredune,Prince Edward Island,Canada

Near‐surface airflow over a morphologically simple, vegetated, 8 m high foredune with a small wave‐cut scarp was measured for onshore to oblique‐onshore conditions during a low‐moderate (5–6 m s^‐1 ) wind event and a high velocity (11–18 m s^‐1) sand‐transporting gale event. Flow across the foredune was characterized by significant flow compression and acceleration up and across the foredune during both events. During the gale, a pronounced jet (speed bulge) developed at the foredune crest, which increased in magnitude with increasing wind speed. The vertical (W) velocity component of the 3D flow field was positive (upwards) across the stoss slope under low wind conditions but negative (downwards) during gale wind conditions, with upslope acceleration. During the low velocity event, there was speed‐down within the vegetation canopy, as would be expected for a porous roughness cover. During the strong wind event there was speed‐up in the lower portion of the vegetation canopy, and this was found up the entire stoss slope. Sediment transport during the gale force event was substantial across the beach and foredune despite the moderate vegetation cover and minimum fetch. Aeolian suspension was evident in the lee of the dune crest. The observations presented herein show that strong storm winds are an effective mechanism for translating sediment landwards across a high vegetated foredune, contributing sediment to the stoss slope, crest and leeward slopes of the foredune and backing dunes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“The Ekman Drain”: a conduit to the deep ocean for shelf material

A long (167 days) acoustic Doppler current profiler time series from the European continental slope west of Scotland has been analysed to investigate the influence of bathymetric steering on the slope current and the extent of down-slope transport in the bottom boundary layer. Within an interior region between the surface and bottom boundary layers, the direction of the flow is found to be remarkably consistent as required by the Taylor-Proudman theorem for geostrophic flow. The mean value of this interior flow direction is taken to be the effective direction of the bathymetry in controlling the geostrophic flow and so defines the rotation of coordinates required to determine along and cross-flow transports. Within a bottom boundary layer (BBL) of thickness ~100 m, the direction of the flow was deflected increasingly to the left with the mean veering angle ~12.5° at 12 mab and a down-slope speed of 2.6 cm s^?1. The corresponding integrated transport (the “Ekman drain”) had an average value of ~1.6 m² s^?1 over the full observation period. This down-slope flow was significantly correlated (at 0.1 % level), with the stress applied by the along-slope flow although with considerable scatter (r.m.s. ~1 m² s^?1) which suggests the influence of other forcing mechanisms. Combining the BBL volume transport with an estimate of the mean concentration of suspended particulate material indicates an annual down-slope flux of 3.0?±?0.6 tonnes m^?1 year^?1, of which ~0.36?±?0.1 tonnes m^?1 year^?1 is carbon. Biogeochemical measurements indicate that the carbon flux in the Ekman drain predominates over settlement of organic material through the water column over the slope and provides for relatively rapid delivery of material to deep water.     

Io: Volcanic thermal sources and global heat flow

We have examined thermal emission from 240 active or recently-active volcanic features on Io and quantified the magnitude and distribution of their volcanic heat flow during the Galileo epoch. We use spacecraft data and a geological map of Io to derive an estimate of the maximum possible contribution from small dark areas not detected as thermally active but which nevertheless appear to be sites of recent volcanic activity. We utilize a trend analysis to extrapolate from the smallest detectable volcanic heat sources to these smallest mapped dark areas. Including the additional heat from estimates for “outburst” eruptions and for a multitude of very small (“myriad”) hot spots, we account for ～62 × 10¹² W (～59 ± 7% of Io’s total thermal emission). Loki Patera contributes, on average, 9.6 × 10¹² W (～9.1 ± 1%). All dark paterae contribute 45.3 × 10¹² W (～43 ± 5%). Although dark flow fields cover a much larger area than dark paterae, they contribute only 5.6 × 10¹² W (～5.3 ± 0.6%). Bright paterae contribute ～2.6 × 10¹² W (～2.5 ± 0.3%). Outburst eruption phases and very small hot spots contribute no more than ～4% of Io’s total thermal emission: this is probably a maximum value. About 50% of Io’s volcanic heat flow emanates from only 1.2% of Io’s surface. Of Io’s heat flow, 41 ± 7.0% remains unaccounted for in terms of identified sources. Globally, volcanic heat flow is not uniformly distributed. Power output per unit surface area is slightly biased towards mid-latitudes, although there is a stronger bias toward the northern hemisphere when Loki Patera is included. There is a slight favoring of the northern hemisphere for outbursts where locations were well constrained. Globally, we find peaks in thermal emission at ～315°W and ～105°W (using 30° bins). There is a minimum in thermal emission at around 200°W (almost at the anti-jovian longitude) which is a significant regional difference. These peaks and troughs suggest a shift to the east from predicted global heat flow patterns resulting from tidal heating in an asthenosphere. Global volcanic heat flow is dominated by thermal emission from paterae, especially from Loki Patera (312°W, 12°N). Thermal emission from dark flows maximises between 165°W and 225°W. Finally, it is possible that a multitude of very small hot spots, smaller than the present angular resolution detection limits, and/or cooler, secondary volcanic processes involving sulphurous compounds, may be responsible for at least part of the heat flow that is not associated with known sources. Such activity should be sought out during the next mission to Io.     

Surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow from a mesoscale watershed in complex mountain terrain

An understanding of surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow is essential for accurate predictions of water supply from mountain watersheds that often serve as water towers for downstream communities. As such, this study used the end‐member mixing analysis technique to investigate source water contributions and hydrologic flow paths of the 264 km² Boulder Creek Watershed, which drains the Colorado Front Range, USA. Four conservative hydrochemical tracers were used to describe this watershed as a 3 end‐member system, and tracer concentration reconstruction suggested that the application of end‐member mixing analysis was robust. On average from 2009 to 2011, snowmelt and rainwater from the subalpine zone and groundwater sampled from the upper montane zone contributed 54%, 22%, and 24% of the annual streamflow, respectively. These values demonstrate increased rainwater and decreased snow water contributions to streamflow relative to area‐weighted mean values derived from previous work at the headwater scale. Young water (2.3 ± 0.8 months) fractions of streamflow decreased from 18–22% in the alpine catchment to 8–10% in the lower elevation catchments and the watershed outlet with implications for subsurface storage and hydrological connectivity. These results contribute to a process‐based understanding of the seasonal source water composition of a mesoscale watershed that can be used to extrapolate headwater streamflow generation predictions to larger spatial scales.     

Atmospheric vapour and precipitation are not in isotopic equilibrium in a continental mountain environment

Isotopic exchange with atmospheric vapour can strongly influence the isotopic values of evaporating surface water bodies (e.g., lakes), influencing our understanding of hydrological processes across aquatic and terrestrial environments. Rather than measure the isotopic values of the atmosphere directly, it is much more common to estimate values by assuming equilibrium with local precipitation. This assumption may introduce large errors, thereby biasing hydrological inferences and understanding. The pattern and magnitude of this error has been quantified only in a few circumstances. We compared observations of vapour and precipitation isotope values over a four-year record collected in a montane environment in the central Rocky Mountains of North America. We further investigated factors and conditions promoting disequilibrium. Scenario comparisons assessed the impact of theoretical and methodological elements on the accuracy of the equilibrium assumption. We found that the equilibrium assumption was not well supported by direct and continuous observations of vapour isotopes using tower-based laser isotope spectroscopy, particularly during the summer months. Across all scenarios, errors associated with the equilibrium assumption were high, credibly ranging from 14 to 154 ‰ for δ²H and 1.5 to 16.3 ‰ for δ¹⁸O. Environmental covariates (e.g., vapour pressure deficit, air pressure) helped explain some of the apparent disequilibrium. Although the equilibrium assumption for estimating atmospheric vapour isotope values may not be applicable in a continental montane environment, our findings highlight opportunities for using direct vapour isotope measurements to better understand vapour sources, air mass mixing, and phase changes over complex mountainous terrain, which in turn may better constrain regional- to global-scale hydrological process estimates, such as evapotranspiration rates and the water budgets of mountain lakes.     

Penetration modeling of ultra-high performance concrete using multiscale meshfree methods

Terminal ballistics of concrete is of extreme importance to the military and civil communities. Over the past few decades, ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) has been developed for various applications in the design of protective structures because UHPC has an enhanced ballistic resistance over conventional strength concrete. Developing predictive numerical models of UHPC subjected to penetration is critical in understanding the material's enhanced performance. This study employs the advanced fundamental concrete (AFC) model, and it will run inside the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM)-based code known as the nonlinear meshfree analysis program (NMAP). NMAP is advantageous for modeling impact and penetration problems that exhibit extreme deformation and material fragmentation. A comprehensive experimental study was conducted to characterize the UHPC. The investigation consisted of fracture toughness testing, the utilization of nondestructive microcomputed tomography analysis, and lastly projectile penetration shots on the UHPC targets. To improve the accuracy of the model, a new scaled damage evolution law (SDEL) is employed within the microcrack informed damage model. During the homogenized macroscopic calculation, the corresponding microscopic cell needs to be dimensionally equivalent to the mesh dimension when the partial differential equation becomes ill posed and strain softening ensues. To ensure arbitrary mesh geometry for which the homogenized stress-strain curves are derived, a size scaling law is incorporated into the homogenized tensile damage evolution law. This ensures energy-bridging equivalence of the microscopic cell to the homogenized medium irrespective of arbitrary mesh geometry. Results of numerical investigations will be compared with results of penetration experiments.