Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production

This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required.     

What explains agricultural performance: climate normals or climate variance?

This paper measures the influence of climate normals (average long-term surface wetness and temperature) and interannual climate variance on farms in the United States and Brazil using satellite data. The paper finds that just climate normals or just climate variance variables can explain both net revenues and how much land is used for cropland. However, because they are correlated with each other, it is important to include both normals and variance in the same statistical model to get accurate measures of their individual contribution to farm outcomes. In general, higher climate variance increases the probability that land is used for cropland in both countries and higher temperatures reduce both cropland and land values. Other annual effects were not consistent across the two countries.     

Does variable channel morphology lead to dynamic salmon habitat?

Stream channel morphology forms the template upon which hydraulic aspects of aquatic habitat are created, yet spatial and temporal variability in habitat imposed by changing morphology is not well understood. This paper presents a conceptual model linking sediment supply patterns to spatial and temporal variability in channel form and aquatic habitat. To evaluate this model, change over time in three habitat variables is quantified using a 2D hydrodynamic modeling approach. A 45-year record of topographic data from Carnation Creek, a catchment in coastal British Columbia, is used for the flow modeling. Using the Nays2DH modeling platform, water depths and velocities are simulated in eight channel segments located at different positions relative to locations of historical colluvial input using seven flow levels ranging from 3% to 400% of mean annual discharge (0.02 to 3.31 m s ). Results indicate that habitat availability changes through time as a result of sediment supply-driven changes to channel morphology and wood loads, but patterns in habitat vary as a function of dominant channel segment morphology. Spatial and temporal variability in morphology also influences the relationship between habitat availability and river discharge, leading to non-stationary habitat-discharge rating curves. When habitat areas are predicted by applying these curves to daily flow series spanning annual dry seasons, over 50% of the variance in cumulative seasonal habitat area can be explained by year-to-year changes in channel morphology and wood loading, indicating that changing morphology is an important factor for driving temporal habitat variability. This variance is related to the morphological variability of a channel segment, which in turn is associated with the segment position relative to zones of colluvial input. Collectively, these results suggest that variability in habitat is impacted by channel morphology, and can be evaluated partly on the basis of a channel's sediment supply regime. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring Polar-Angle Errors in Imaged Helioseismology

A sixteen-day sequence of GONG full-disk Dopplergrams was computer-rotated by plus and minus 1° with respect to the midpoint of the equator to produce two additional data sets simulating errors in the instrumental alignment with the rotation axis. The unrotated and two rotated data sets were then reduced to produce tables of mode linewidths and line-peak powers. The line characteristics of the two rotated sets were compared to the unrotated set for 20 l 120. It was found that the linewidths increased as much as 55% and the line-peak powers decreased as much as 17%, with increasing l. These results are in good agreement with an earlier model (Kennedy, 1997). Differential linewidths studies indicated that the GONG instrument-network rotation-axis alignment was within 0.048° ± 0.040° during the period of the observation.     

Interplanetary scintillation observations of interaction regions in the solar wind

Co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) between fast and slow streams of plasma are a prominent feature of the solar wind. Measurements of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) using the three widely separated antennas of the EISCAT facility have been used to detect the compression regions at the leading edges of interaction regions and to determine the location and velocity of the structure. Observations show that interaction regions have developed as close to the Sun as 25–30 solar radii, a result supported by theoretical modelling which shows that the conditions needed for CIRs to develop exist inside 30 solar radii.     

Post-collisional volcanism in a sinking slab setting—crustal anatectic origin of pyroxene-andesite magma, Caldear Volcanic Group, Neogene Alborán volcanic province, southeastern Spain

Caldear Volcanic Group (CVG), a stratigraphically well defined, calc-alkaline rock complex within S^a de Gata in the eastern part of the Alpine Betic mountain chain, S Spain, consists of three distinct formations: Hernández pyroxene andesites, Bujo hornblende-bearing pyroxene andesites and Viuda hornblende-bearing pyroxene dacites–rhyolites. The letter rock formation may have developed through crystal fractionation of mainly plagioclase and pyroxenes, however there is no direct relation between two formations. CVG has a domainal structure with a northeastern domain where Hernández formation is overlain by Bujo formation while Viuda formation is absent, and a southwestern domain where Viuda formation forms the only fractionate after Hernández formation. Hernández parent magma is thought generated through crustal anatexis by dehydration melting of a predominantly amphibolitic source rock complex which was formed by metamorphism from c. 500 Ma volcano-sedimentary parent material. The domainal structure of CVG is explained by compositional variation within this protogenetic complex. Single crystal U–Pb ages of c. 500 Ma to 1800 Ma for inherited zircon support the presence of clastic material of Proterozoic derivation within the original volcano-sedimentary complex. Regional study of syn-collisional rock formations (Alpine nappe complexes) indicate that the collisional tectonic stage in the Betic-Rif orogenic belt took place rather early (25–30 Ma?) and was followed by a stage of rapid regional rock uplift, fast cooling (c. 500°C/my) and extensional tectonics in the period 22–17 Ma. This later tectonic stage was set into motion by slab break-off which set the stage for a high temperature regime in the overlying lithosphere, providing the framework for the crustal melting and magma production responsible for the calc-alkaline rocks of Alborán volcanic province. Miocene zircon with ages ranging from c. 17 to 11 Ma indicate a rather protracted magmatic development prior to eruption at c. 11 Ma. Post-collisional character of Caldear Volcanic Group thus seems well established.     

Precambrian tidal and glacial clastic deposits: implications for Precambrian Earth–Moon dynamics and palaeoclimate

Over the past decade the study of Precambrian clastic tidal rhythmites — stacked laminae of sandstone, siltstone and mudstone that display periodic variations in thickness reflecting a strong tidal influence on sedimentation — has provided accurate palaeotidal and palaeorotational data. Palaeotidal records obtained from tidal rhythmites may be systematically abbreviated, however, and derived periods and frequencies can be misleading. The validity of such values, including past length of day, can be assessed by testing for internal self-consistency through application of the laws of celestial mechanics. Such a test supports the estimated length of day of h derived from the late Neoproterozoic (620 Ma) Elatina–Reynella rhythmites in South Australia, and the indicated mean rate of lunar retreat of cm/year since 620 Ma. The validity of estimated lengths of day obtained from other Precambrian tidal rhythmites remain unverified because the data sets contain only one primary value directly determined from the rhythmites. The Elatina–Reynella data militate against significant Earth expansion at least since 620 Ma, and suggest that the free nutation or ‘tipping' of the Earth's fluid core has undergone a resonance with the Earth's annual forced nutation since the Neoproterozoic. Glaciogenic deposits are readily distinguishable from ejecta resulting from impacts with Earth-crossing bodies. Palaeomagnetic data, based on the geocentric axial dipole model for the geomagnetic field, indicate that Neoproterozoic and Palaeoproterozoic glaciation and cold climate near sea level occurred in low palaeolatitudes. This enigmatic finding may imply global glaciation or an increased obliquity of the ecliptic, and is relevant to modelling the effect of ice sheet formation on the Earth's obliquity history by obliquity–oblateness feedback mechanisms. Through multidisciplinary studies, clastic sedimentology and geophysics together can make substantial contributions to understanding Precambrian Earth–Moon dynamics and global palaeoenvironments.     

The spatial structure of the dayside ionospheric trough

Tomographic imaging provides a powerful technique for obtaining images of the spatial distribution of ionospheric electron density at polar latitudes. The method, which involves monitoring radio transmissions from the Navy Navigation Satellite System at a meridional chain of ground receivers, has particular potential for complementing temporal measurements by other observing techniques such as the EISCAT incoherent-scatter radar facility. Tomographic reconstructions are presented here from a two-week campaign in November 1995 that show large-scale structuring of the polar ionosphere. Measurements by the EISCAT radar confirm the authenticity of the technique and provide additional information of the plasma electron and ion temperatures. The dayside trough, persistently observed at high latitudes during a geomagnetically quiet period but migrating to lower latitudes with increasing activity, is discussed in relationship to the pattern of the polarcap convection.     

Measurements of the direction of the solar wind using interplanetary scintillation

EISCAT observations of the interplanetary scintillation of a single source were made over an extended period of time, during which the orientation of the baselines between the two observing sites changed significantly. Assuming that maximum correlation between the scintillations observed at the two sites occurs when the projected baseline is parallel to the direction of plasma flow, this technique can be used to make a unique determination of the direction of the solar wind. In the past it has usually been assumed that the plasma flow is radial, but measurements of eleven sources using this technique have indicated conclusively that in at least six cases observed at mid or high heliocentric latitude there is a significant non-radial component directed in four cases towards the heliocentric equator and in two cases towards the pole.