Neural networks for regional employment forecasts: are the parameters relevant?

In this paper, we present a review of various computational experiments concerning neural network (NN) models developed for regional employment forecasting. NNs are nowadays widely used in several fields because of their flexible specification structure. A series of NN experiments is presented in the paper, using two data sets on German NUTS-3 districts. Individual forecasts are computed by our models for each district in order to answer the following question: How relevant are NN parameters in comparison to NN structure? Comprehensive testing of these parameters is limited in the literature. Building on different specifications of NN models—in terms of explanatory variables and NN structures—we propose a systematic choice of NN learning parameters and internal functions by means of a sensitivity analysis. Our results show that different combinations of NN parameters provide significantly varying statistical performance and forecasting power. Finally, we note that the sets of parameters chosen for a given model specification cannot be light-heartedly applied to different or more complex models.     

Discovering the stone heritage of southern Italy: technical properties of the Mondragone marble from Campania region

The results of the geological characterization of an old stone building in southern Italy, are presented here. The Mondragone marble is a slightly metamorphosed carbonate rock, which was widely employed as monumental stone in the 18th century Royal Palaces of Naples and Caserta. In this paper, for the first time, this rock has been investigated with a thorough laboratory testing program, aimed at defining its mineralogical, physical and mechanical parameters. The two most important varieties of Mondragone marble were separately tested: the yellow and grey marbles (hereafter, YM and GM, respectively). The results obtained from physical tests (open porosity, dry density, specific gravity, water absorption coefficients, ultrasonic velocity) did not show marked differences between the two materials; in contrast, the mechanical strength tests (uniaxial compressive strength, point load strength, flexural strength) showed better behaviour of YM than for GM. After a tentative comparison with other well known carbonate rocks from Italy, some considerations on the response of Mondragone marble to local weathering were conducted. In particular, the weathering typologies were related to the particular texture of the brecciated marble and the different strength resistances displayed by the various constituents of the rock.     

The Paleoenvironment and Lithic Taphonomy of Shi’Bat Dihya 1, a Middle Paleolithic Site in Wadi Surdud,Yemen

The Shi'bat Dihya 1 site in western Yemen, dated by optically stimulated luminescence to 55 ka, provides insight into the Middle Paleolithic peopling of the Arabian Peninsula. The archaeological layer is interstratified within thick, sandy silt floodplain deposits filling a piedmont basin. Luminescence dates, lack of soil development, and gypsum precipitation indicate a high accretion rate of the floodplain during Marine Isotope Stage 3, in connection with a (semi)‐arid environment. Rapid overbank sedimentation was likely a result of the remobilization of loess material deposited on the Yemeni Great Escarpment at the periphery of the adjacent Tihama coastal sand desert or of other sources. Fabric and size analyses of the lithic artifacts, together with spatial projections, indicate site modifications by floods. Primary modifications include (1) selective accumulation of medium‐sized lithic pieces as a result of hydraulic sorting, (2) bimodal orientation of artifacts, and (3) ripple‐like arrangement of lithics and bone/tooth fragments. The overrepresentation of teeth may also be a consequence of sorting. Although floods have distorted the original site patterning, long‐distance transport of artifacts by water can be excluded, as indicated by relatively high refitting rate, close proximity of artifacts derived from the same block of raw material, and lack of abrasion of the pieces. Therefore, the site is considered “geologically” in situ because its remobilization by water occurred shortly after human abandonment. This study also stresses that the effective preservation of a site cannot be assessed without careful taphonomic study, even in a potentially favorable depositional context such as silty alluvium.     

Chironomid-inferred temperature changes of the last century in anoxic Seebergsee,Switzerland: assessment of two calibration methods

Chironomids (non-biting midges) can provide accurate climate reconstructions from the Late Glacial to the present. Until now, anoxic lakes have been avoided for temperature reconstructions since chironomid assemblages are sensitive to changes in oxygen concentrations in the hypolimnion. However, anoxic lakes may have varved sediments, providing the possibility for near-annual climate reconstructions. Here, we tested the applicability of two calibration methods to reconstruct mean July air temperatures from chironomid assemblages preserved in the sediments of the anoxic Seebergsee located in the northern Swiss Alps: a calibration-in-space approach and a calibration-in-time approach. The calibration-in-space approach (i.e. chironomid assemblages from surficial lake sediments (0–1 cm) calibrated against meteorological data) provided accurate inferences (i.e. similar temperature changes as measured at the closest meteorological station, and at regional stations) in the Seebergsee stratigraphy until anoxia increased in the lake. With the increase of anoxia, the chironomid-inferred temperatures were generally colder than measured temperatures. A calibration-in-time approach (i.e. calibration of chironomid assemblages in a time series against instrumental data from the closest meteorological station) provided accurate reconstructions (i.e. similar to the regional records) for the past 100 years, including the time period of inferred anoxia. However, its applicability should be further tested on longer temporal scales.     

Petrology, structure and tectonic significance of the Tuclame banded schists in the Sierras Pampeanas of Córdoba and its relationship with the metamorphic basement of northwestern Argentina

In the northwest of the Sierras Pampeanas of Córdoba (Central Argentina), in the Tuclame area, rocks called ‘banded schists’ are recognized. They are known since 120 years ago and are one of the most important lithologies of the metamorphic complex in this region. The compositional banding is the most conspicuous structural mesoscopic feature, composed of quartz-rich and mica-rich layers. It is a tectonic banding produced by pressure solution during a compressive event. P–T conditions of 557 ± 25 °C and 3.9 ± 1 kb were obtained for the main metamorphic event. A detailed field checking allowed recognition of the banded schists as decimetric or centimetric xenoliths isolated within the regional migmatites and the anatectic granitoids and as kilometric-scale belts within Sierras de Córdoba and San Luis. The authors have also identified banded schists in the Sierras de Aconquija, Ambato, Ancasti and Guasayán. Other workers recognized them in the Puna, Cumbres Calchaquíes, Sierras de Quilmes and Fiambalá, among the most well known outcrops. The banded schists have systematic petrological features and a distinctive mesoscopic structure that allow their identification and correlation with the other outcrops, which are arranged as a huge belt 2000 km long and 150 km wide, between 64°00′–66°30′W and 25°00′–41°34′S. In this work, all these rocks are proposed to be integrated into the Puncoviscana Basin, since field evidence indicated that the banded schists transitionally pass by transposition to phyllitic rocks typical of this metamorphosed basin, which would cover a region of about 300,000 km². At present, there is no accurate geochronology available for the metamorphic and deformation events proposed in this work for the Tuclame banded schists. However, considering the regional geological evidence, the great spread of the petrostructural process forming these rocks, the transition between the Puncoviscana Formation and the banded schists, and the earlier idea that the Puncoviscana Formation is the shallowest equivalent of deeper structural levels in the Sierras Pampeanas, we favor for the moment the hypothesis that the banded schists could be part of the oldest evolution of the Pampean orogeny (early Pampean stage) and could represent different structural levels of the same orogen, probably a late Precambrian–early Palaeozoic orogen. The events of migmatization and emplacement of anatectic granitoids could represent a late Pampean stage of early Palaeozoic age. Thus, the Pampean orogeny could have lasted around 30–40 Ma (570–530 Ma).     

Exploring the long-term and interannual variability of biogeochemical variables in coastal areas by means of a data assimilation approach

Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) models are applied here to the investigation of the interannual changes in the trend and seasonality of biogeochemical variables monitored in coastal areas. A DHR model can be regarded as a time-series component model, where the phases and amplitudes of the seasonal component, as well as the trend, are parameters that vary with time, reflecting relevant changes in the evolution of the biogeochemical variables. The model parameters and their confidence bounds are estimated by data assimilation algorithms, i.e. the Kalman filter and the Fixed Interval smoother. The DHR model structure is here identified by a preliminary spectral analysis and a subsequent minimization of the Bayesian Information Criterion, thus avoiding subjective choices of the frequencies in the seasonal component. The methodology was applied to the investigation of the long-term and interannual variability of ammonia, nitrate, orthophosphate and chlorophyll-a monitored monthly in the lagoon of Venice (Italy) during the years 1986–2008. It was found that the long-term evolutions of the biogeochemical variables were characterized by non-linear patterns and by statistically significant changes in the trend. The seasonal cycles of all the variables were characterized by a marked interannual variability. In particular, the changes in the seasonality of chlorophyll and nitrate were significantly related to the changes in the seasonality of water temperature at the study site and of nutrient concentrations in river discharges, respectively. These results indicate that the methodology could be a sound alternative to more traditional approaches for investigating the impacts of changes in environmental and anthropogenic forcings on the evolution of biogeochemical variables in coastal areas.     

Improvement of HVSR technique by self-organizing map (SOM) analysis

Data interpretation is one of the most important and thorny tasks in geosciences. Difficulties occur especially in non-invasive geophysical techniques and/or when the data that have to be analyzed are multidimensional, non-linear and highly noisy. Another important task is to ensure an efficient automatic data analysis, in order to allow a data interpretation as independent as possible from any a priori knowledge. This paper describes the post-processing application of a kind of neural network (self-organizing map, SOM) to the identification of the fundamental HVSR frequency of a given site. SOM results can be represented as two-dimensional maps, with a non-parametric mapping that projects the high dimensional original dataset in a fashion that provides both an unsupervised clustering and a highly visual representation of the data relationships. This innovative application of the SOM algorithm is presented with a case study related to the characterization of a mineral deposit.     

The Australia telescope 20 GHz survey: hardware, observing strategy, and scanning survey catalog

The Australia Telescope 20 GHz (AT20G) survey is a large area (2?? sr), sensitive (40 mJy), high frequency (20 GHz) survey of the southern sky. The survey was conducted in two parts: an initial fast scanning survey, and a series of more accurate follow-up observations. The follow-up survey catalog has been presented by Murphy et al. (MNRAS 402:2403, 2010). In this paper we discuss the hardware setup and scanning survey strategy as well as the production of the scanning survey catalog.     

1.94–1.93 Ga charnockitic magmatism from the central part of the Guyana Shield, Roraima, Brazil: Single-zircon evaporation data and tectonic implications

Age and origin of the charnockitic rocks of the central part of the Guyana Shield have been a matter of discussion. These rocks have been interpreted either as Transamazonian granulites metamorphosed around 2.02 Ga or as 1.56 Ga old igneous charnockites. Recently, most of the Roraima charnockitic rocks have been recognized as igneous rocks and included into the Serra da Prata Suite (SPS). Five Pb–Pb single-zircon evaporation ages were obtained for samples representative of different facies of the SPS and these constrained the age of the charnockitic magmatism between 1943 ± 5 Ma and 1933 ± 2 Ma. This charnockitic magmatism may be related to a post-collisional setting after the evolution of the Cauarane-Coeroeni Belt (～2.00 Ga), or may represent a post-collisional (or intracontinental?) magmatism related to orogenic activities along the plate margins around 1.95–1.94 Ga.