Bayesian calibrated significance levels applied to the spectral tilt and hemispherical asymmetry

Bayesian model selection provides a formal method of determining the level of support for new parameters in a model. However, if there is not a specific enough underlying physical motivation for the new parameters it can be hard to assign them meaningful priors, an essential ingredient of Bayesian model selection. Here we look at methods maximizing the prior so as to work out what is the maximum support the data could give for the new parameters. If the maximum support is not high enough then one can confidently conclude that the new parameters are unnecessary without needing to worry that some other prior may make them significant. We discuss a computationally efficient means of doing this which involves mapping p-values on to upper bounds of the Bayes factor (or odds) for the new parameters. A p-value of 0.05 (1.96σ) corresponds to odds less than or equal to 5:2, which is below the 'weak' support at best threshold. A p-value of 0.0003 (3.6σ) corresponds to odds of less than or equal to 150:1, which is the 'strong' support at best threshold. Applying this method we find that the odds on the scalar spectral index being different from one are 49:1 at best. We also find that the odds that there is primordial hemispherical asymmetry in the cosmic microwave background are 9:1 at best.     

Effects of physical phenomena on the distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton productivity in a coastal lagoon

Sea level, salinity, temperature, nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, silicate, chlorophylls a, b and c and their phaeophytins, phytoplankton abundance and phytoplankton productivity time series were generated for the mouth and three interior locations of Bahia San Quintin, Baja California, Mexico, for 10 days during summer of 1979. The samples were taken once every 2 h. This was done to describe space and time variability of these ecological properties and to elucidate the main factors that cause this variability. Upwelling events bring nutrient reach waters near the bay mouth and tidal currents propagate those waters throughout the bay. Nutrient remineralization at the sediments and the effect of turbulence induced by tidal currents and winds increase nutrient concentrations in the interiors of the bay. In comparison with available information on nutrients limited growth of planktonic algae, nutrients seemed not to be limiting to phytoplankton growth during the sampling period. Phytoplankton cell abundances at the extremes of the lagoon are an order of magnitude lower than at the mouth due to greater turbidity. Chlorophyll concentrations at the extremes are about one-third of those of the mouth. Primary productivity decreases from the mouth to the interiors in the same manner as chlorophyll does. There is not a significant difference in cell size between phytoplankton at the bay mouth and those at the extremes of the bay. Primary productivity in the bay is comparable to the productivity maxima of other upwelling areas. There is no clear permanent dominance of diatoms over dinoflagellates, or vice versa, at any location in the bay. The alternation of upwelling and non-upwelling played an important role, together with that of the spring-neap tide cycle, in producing low frequency (< 0.01 cycles h^?1) temporal variability of ecological properties throughout the bay.     

Cooling in rifting sequences during increasing burial depth due to heat flow decrease

Two case histories are presented to give evidences for sediment cooling during increasing burial depth due to heat flow decrease at the end of crustal stretching in extensional settings. The first refers to the Lower Cretaceous succession accumulated in a strongly subsiding trough within the Sirt Basin (Libya); the second relates to the Mesozoic succession of the Lombardian Basin (NW Italy) formed during Late Triassic–Early Jurassic rifting of the northern margin of the Adriatic microplate. In both cases, heat flow decreasing at the end of crustal stretching overbalanced the thermal effect of increasing burial depth causing a net cooling of rocks. These examples provide an alternative to exhumation for explaining cooling events recorded by rifting sedimentary sequences.     

Radio sources in the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey – II. Local radio luminosity functions for AGN and star-forming galaxies at 1.4 GHz

We have cross-matched the 1.4-GHz NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) with the first 210 fields observed in the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS), covering an effective area of 325 deg² (about 20 per cent of the final 2dFGRS area). This yields a set of optical spectra of 912 candidate NVSS counterparts, of which we identify 757 as genuine radio identifications – the largest and most homogeneous set of radio source spectra ever obtained. The 2dFGRS radio sources span the redshift range     to 0.438, and are a mixture of active galaxies (60 per cent) and star-forming galaxies (40 per cent). About 25 per cent of the 2dFGRS radio sources are spatially resolved by NVSS, and the sample includes three giant radio galaxies with projected linear size greater than 1 Mpc. The high quality of the 2dF spectra means we can usually distinguish unambiguously between AGN and star-forming galaxies. We make a new determination of the local radio luminosity function at 1.4 GHz for both active and star-forming galaxies, and derive a local star formation density of         .     

Halophyte recruitment in a salt marsh restoration site

In restored salt marshes, seedling recruitment can be limited where large areas of soil are exposed and physical conditions are harsh. On a 0.7-ha excavated marsh plain, we studied recruitment as a function of abiotic (elevation) and biotic factors in 2 × 2 m plots planted with 0, 1, 3, or 6 species from the pool of 8 native halophytes. The random draws of 3-species and 6-species assemblages produced approximately equal numbers of plants per species for the experiment as a whole, yet only three species recruited> 10 seedlings per plot.Salicornia virginica andSalicornia bigelovii each produced> 15,000 seedlings in 1998, andSuaeda esteroa produced> 2,500 seedlings in 1999. For these 3 species, seedling recruitment increased with elevation in 1998, but this trend weakened in 1999, when species richness affected recruitment (fewer seedlings in more species-rich plots). Abiotic effects preceded biotic interactions in determining seedling recruitment patterns early in the development of the salt marsh. Effects of species richness appeared to be scale-dependent in that having all species present in the site likely enhanced overall recruitment (all species had 2 or more seedlings), while plantings of 6 species in a 2 × 2 m plot reduced seedling density.S. virginica was the only species that increased its presence and relative cover in the experimental site over the 4-yr study. Protocols for planting southern California salt marsh restoration sites could omit this species, but all others probably need to be introduced to restore diverse vegetation.     

Detritus Rolling Down a Vertical Cliff of the Ligurian Sea (Italy): The Écological Role in Hard Bottom Communities

Abstract. The detritus rolling down a vertical cliff was studied at Portofino Promontory (Ligurian Sea, Italy) at 16 m depth (January 1988- January 1989). The large amount of collected sediment is mainly due to the position of the traps; they collected not only the sedimenting material, but also the detritus rolling down along the cliff. The amount of sediment matter is 7 times greater in winter than in summer, showing a good correlation with rough seas and rain that cause a "mechanical cleaning" of animal and plant debris (Sérpulid tubes, shells, exuvias. leaves) along the cliff.
The Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in the water column shows maximum values in March and September. The organic fraction has an average concentration of 0.81 mg 1^-l. The phytoplanktonic biomass, measured as Chi a , shows an annual cycle with a peak in spring (1–2.7μg·l^-1). while in other periods of the year the value is about 0.3-0.5 μg·1^-1. A significant relationship was found between organic detritus in the collected sédiments and the Chi a in the water column. The great influence of the rocky wall detritus on the normal trend of the TSM in the coastal water column is pointed out.     

Comparison Between the Energy Flow Networks of Two Habitats in the Venice Lagoon

Abstract. The energy flows of two habitats are quantified and compared by using a trophic network model. The habitats are representative of two typical subsystems of the Venice Lagoon: the seagrass meadows, which represent a mature stage in the ecological succession of lagoon environments, and the Tapes philippinarum fishing grounds, which are subjected to mechanical clam harvesting.
The results obtained for the 'seagrass habitat'are consistent with other field studies, confirming the'key-stone'role played by phanerogams in a lagoon environment. The results for the 'Tapes habitat'show that the energy flow from the sediment to the water column is extremely important. Indeed, the high T. philippinarum biomass cannot be supported solely by the primary production of the local phytoplankton. Instead, this biomass could be supported by a supply provided by the sediment resuspension caused by intensive clam fishing. These findings suggest the presence of a positive feedback between fishing effort and T. philippinarum standing crop.     

Time-dependent density anomalies in a stratified,viscoelastic mantle: Implications for the geoid,Earth's rotation and sea-level fluctuations

The effects on the = 2 geoid component and Earth's rotation due to internal mass anomalies are analyzed for a stratified viscoelastic mantle described by a Maxwell rheology. Our approach is appropriate for a simplified modeling of subduction. Sea-level fluctuations induced by long-term rotational instabilities are also considered. The displacement of the Earth's axis of rotation, called true polar wander (TPW) and the induced eustatic sea-level fluctuations, are extremely sensitive to viscosity and density stratification at the 670 km seismic discontinuity. Phase-change models for the transition zone generally allow for huge amount of TPW, except for large viscosity increases; the dominant contribution in Liouville equations comes from a secular term that reflects the viscous behaviour of the mantle. In chemically stratified models, TPW is drastically reduced due to dynamic compensation of the mass anomalies at the upper-lower mantle interface. When the source is embedded in the upper mantle close to the chemical density jump, transient rotational modes are the leading terms in the linear Liouville equations. Long-term rotation instabilities are valuable contributors to the third order cycles in the eustatic sea-level curves. Rates of sea-level fluctuations of the order of 0.05–0.1 mm/yr are induced by displacements of the Earth's axis of rotation compatible with paleomagnetic data.     

The 1906 eruption of Vesuvius: from magmatic to phreatomagmatic activity through the flashing of a shallow depth hydrothermal system

The April 1906 eruption of Vesuvius is the type-example of the final eruptions that close the short cycles of semi-persistent activity that characterized the volcano in the 1631–1944 period. The eruption had a marked explosive character that accompanied the emission of lava from several vents on the southern slopes of the volcano. The observed sequence of events was characterized by repeated fluctuations of the magma level within the conduit, by large lava fountains, by conduit partial collapses, and by the final explosive decapitation of the summit cone. Contemporary chronicles, although frequently contradictory, allow reconstruction of the eruption, which can be divided into four main phases: (1) lateral lava effusions; (2) lava fountains; (3) gas-pyroclasts column; (4) low dense clouds. Pyroclastic deposits of the Monte Somma ridge and northeastern slope can be related to observed and described events and mainly refer to the 2nd and 3rd phases. The increase in the degree of fragmentation of the juvenile component together with the marked increase of the lithic component and morphologic evidence emphasize the repeated occurrence of magmawater interaction. This was most spectacular in the 3rd phase of the eruption in which, after the decapitation of the cone, a high gas-pyroclasts eruption column was formed. Because of the nature of the lithic fragments (mainly hydrothermally altered and metasomatic rocks), the huge amount of steam, and the high lithic/juvenile ratio, it is unlikely that the largest part of the energy in play was related to the contact between magma and cold phreatic water. We suggest that most of the steam involved in this phase of the eruption came from flashing of the hydrothermal system connected to the very shallow feeding system of the volcano and formed as a consequence of repeated subsurface intrusions between 1872 and 1906. Juvenile products were ejected through the eruption, and represent (at least) two different magma bodies: the first (older) was erupted during the initial phase of the eruption and was exhausted at the beginning of the lava fountains phase, when fresh magma was involved in the eruption.