Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

Observations of the SW Sextantis star UU Aquarii

We present 14 nights of medium resolution (1–2 Å) spectroscopy of the eclipsing cataclysmic variable UU Aquarii obtained during a high accretion state in 1995 August–October. UU Aqr appears to be an SW Sextantis (SW Sex) star, as noted by Baptista, Steiner & Horne, and we discuss its spectroscopic behaviour in the context of the SW Sex phenomenon. Emission-line equivalent width curves, Doppler tomography, and line profile simulation provide evidence for the presence of a bright spot at the impact site of the accretion stream with the edge of the disc, and a non-axisymmetric, vertically and azimuthally extended absorbing structure in the disc. The absorption has maximum depth in the emission lines around orbital phase 0.8, but is present from φ≈0.4 to φ≈0.95. An origin is explored for this absorbing structure (as well as for the other spectroscopic behaviour of UU Aqr) in terms of the explosive impact of the accretion stream with the disc.     

Field sampling in estuaries: The relationship of scale to variability

The spatial/temporal scaling problem (i.e., fitting a given research question to the dimensions of variability of the study area) is particularly pronounced in highly variable systems such as estuaries. Long-term, multidisciplinary studies in the Apalachicola Bay system were used to evaluate variation of different physical, chemical, and biological factors. Specific limitations of weekly, monthly, and quarterly sampling intervals were directly related to the efficiency of the sampling gear, the range of variation in the study parameters, and specific biological features (motility, recruitment, natural history) of infaunal macroinvertebrates and epibenthic organisms. There are families of spatial and temporal scaling phenomena that should be considered when establishing a given field sampling program. The dimensions of variation change along spatial/temporal gradients of salinity, habitat complexity, and productivity and among different levels of biological organization. The limits of variation define the needed sampling effort for a given level of estimation. Without an adequate evaluation of such variation, representative samples cannot be taken; the resulting inadequate sampling effort often precludes reliable comparisons and robust generalization. There is a continuum of scaling dimensions (and sampling problems) that ranges from small-scale experimental approaches to system-wide analyses. Misapplication of such scaling estimates has led to overgeneralization of experimental results. Currently, there is widespread misapplication of combinations of unrelated, limited sampling efforts to broad-scale resource problems. The loss of valuable estuarine resources is favored by the lack of adequate scientific databases that are consistent with the dimensions of the individual study areas. Unless experimental studies and field sampling programs are scaled to the dimensions of the research problem and the study area in question there will be a continued proliferation of trivial studies at one end of the continuum and the progressive deterioration of estuarine resources at the other.     

Apparent and actual galaxy cluster temperatures

The redshift evolution of the galaxy cluster temperature function is a powerful probe of cosmology. However, its determination requires the measurement of redshifts for all clusters in a catalogue, which is likely to prove challenging for large catalogues expected from XMM-Newton , which may contain of the order of 2000 clusters with measurable temperatures, distributed around the sky. In this paper we study the apparent cluster temperature, which can be obtained without cluster redshifts. We show that the apparent temperature function itself is of limited use in constraining cosmology, and so concentrate our focus on studying how apparent temperatures can be combined with other X-ray information to constrain the cluster redshift. We also briefly study the circumstances under which the non-thermal spectral features can provide redshift information.     

Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program

Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40?% of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500?years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30?C50?years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50?C100?years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North.     

Analysis of Difference Between Direct and Geodetic Mass Balance Measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington

Net mass balance has been measured since 1958 at South Cascade Glacier using the 'direct method,' e.g. area averages of snow gain and firn and ice loss at stakes. Analysis of cartographic vertical photography has allowed measurement of mass balance using the 'geodetic method' in 1970, 1975, 1977, 1979–80, and 1985–97. Water equivalent change as measured by these nearly independent methods should give similar results. During 1970–97, the direct method shows a cumulative balance of about −15 m, and the geodetic method shows a cumulative balance of about −22 m. The deviation between the two methods is fairly consistent, suggesting no gross errors in either, but rather a cumulative systematic error. It is suspected that the cumulative error is in the direct method because the geodetic method is based on a non-changing reference, the bedrock control, whereas the direct method is measured with reference to only the previous year's summer surface. Possible sources of mass loss that are missing from the direct method are basal melt, internal melt, and ablation on crevasse walls. Possible systematic measurement errors include under-estimation of the density of lost material, sinking stakes, or poorly represented areas.     

Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.